A catastrophe progression approach based index sensitivity analysis model for the multivariate flooding process     

Li-Na?Wang  Xiao-Hong?ChenEmail author  Yong-Xin?Xu  Ming-Zhi?Huang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(1):141-153

Flood mitigation should deal with those most sensitive flooding elements to very efficiently release risks and reduce losses. Present the most concerns of flood control are peak level or peak discharge which, however, may not always be the most sensitive flooding element. Actually, along with human activities and climate change, floods bring threats to bear on human beings appear in not only peak level and peak discharge, but also other elements like maximum 24-h volume and maximum 72-h volume. In this paper, by collecting six key flooding intensity indices (elements), a catastrophe progression approach based sensitivity analysis algorithm model is developed to identify the indices that mostly control over the flood intensity. The indices sensitivity is determined through a selected case study in the Wujiang River, South China, based on half a century of flow record. The model results indicate that there is no evident relationship of interplay among the index sensitivities, but the variability of the index sensitivity is closely related to the index variability and the index sensitivity increases with the decrease of index value. It is found that peak discharge is not the most influential flooding factor as is generally thought in this case. The sensitivity value of the maximum 24-h volume is the greatest influential factor among all the other indices, indicating that this index plays a leading role in the flood threat of the Wujiang River, South China. It is inferred that, for the purpose of flood warning and mitigation, the peak flood discharge is not always the most sensitive and dominant index as opposed to the others, depending on the sensitivity.  相似文献   

Effects of Wave–Current Interaction on Salt Intrusion During a Typhoon Event in a Highly Stratified Estuary     

Wenping Gong  Yunzhen Chen  Heng Zhang  Zhaoyun Chen 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(7):1904-1923

Wave–current interaction (WCI) is important in modulating hydrodynamics and water mixing in estuaries, and thereby the transport of water-borne materials. However, the effects of WCI on salt transport and salt intrusion in estuaries during storm events have been rarely examined. In the present study, we use a coupled atmosphere–ocean–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system to investigate the effects of WCI on salt intrusion in the highly stratified Modaomen Estuary during Typhoon Hagupit (2008). The model is validated by the measured wave, water elevation, and surface salinity data, and several diagnostic model experiments are conducted. WCI increases the storm surge by 0.8 m at the peak surge (25% of the total surge height). The wave-breaking-induced momentum flux and the Stokes drift increase the magnitude of the landward flow by 0.3 m s^?1 (30% of the total landward flow). In addition, the waves increase water mixing by 2–4 times compared with that without waves. Hence, WCI significantly increases the landward advective salt transport and decreases the steady shear transport. The net effect of the WCI is a significant increase of salt import and salt intrusion during the typhoon event. However, in the aftermath of the storm, the imported salt water is rapidly flushed out by the increased river discharge, and the estuary regains its stratification within one day.  相似文献   

An insight into the surface velocity of Inylchek Glacier and its effect on Lake Merzbacher during 2006–2016 with Landsat time-series imagery     

Shiyong Yan  Yi Li  Zhiguo Li  Guang Liu  Zhixing Ruan  Zian Li 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(23):773

Mountain glacier is one of the extremely sensitive indicators for climate change, and its surface motion distribution and corresponding variation are valuable information for understanding ice mass exchange and glacier dynamics. This paper presents the long-term ice velocity distributions of Inylchek Glacier in the Tianshan region by pixel-tracking algorithm with time-series Landsat imagery acquired during 2006–2016. Then the monitored ice motion fields of Inylchek Glacier were carefully analyzed and revealed a generally similar spatial distribution characteristic. Most of the ice of the North Inylchek Glacier remains in a stagnant state except for the upstream part, but a relatively high velocity of 20–40 cm/day with an RMSE of 3 cm/day was observed on most part of the South Inylchek Glacier, except for the slow-moving glacier terminus. We also state the glacier dynamics around Lake Merzbacher and their possible effect on its glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk. Besides, the surface velocity distribution on South Inylchek Glacier surface during the ablation period from 2014 to 2016 was also established and also compared with annual velocity. The corresponding difference yields that there is a positive relation between ice motion and temperature variation. Therefore, the time-series ice surface motion yielded by the Landsat imagery thus could provide us an efficient and low-cost way to analyze the current state and changes in glaciers, thanks to the continuous and regular spaceborne observations provided by the Landsat satellites.  相似文献   

An analytical method to estimate groundwater depletion from a confining layer     

Zhaofeng Li  Zhifang Zhou  Zhou Chen  Guoqing Liu  Cuiying Zhou 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(2):887-901

An analytical method was proposed to estimate depletion of groundwater in the confining layers through their entire exploitation history and also for limited periods, especially when data on the drawdown history of the pumped aquifer were sparse. The method was based on the solution for drawdown distribution in the confining layer under the condition that the water level was not under equilibrium conditions but resulted from the delayed drainage phenomenon at the outset. First, the method was used on a hypothetical confined regional aquifer system. It suggested that the calculation error of depletion was generally small and that the cumulative released water from the confining layer can be calculated as being closer to the actual total depletion (2.88 km³) than an existing method. Then, the method was applied to estimate the groundwater quantity released from confining layers in the Su-Xi-Chang region of China, where there is a paucity of groundwater level data. The depletion of groundwater in confining layers represented approximately 54 to 82 % of total withdrawals (9.2 km³) from 1965 to 2000. Therefore, the confining layers are the main consolidation layers in Su-Xi-Chang area. Uncertainty in the properties of the confining layers made the depletion calculation subject to error.  相似文献   

Study on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons（PAHs） contents and sources in the surface so~l or l-lmznou City, South China, based on multivariate statistics analysis     

Jin Ma  Yongzhang Zhou  Hongfu Wan 《中国地球化学学报》2009,28(4):335-339

Studies of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the surface soil were conducted in Huizhou City, which is located in the Pearl River Delta, South China. Sixteen PAHs in 42 soil samples were detected. The results showed that 4 components of PAHs were detectable in all soil samples, and other 12 components were also detectable to some extent. The total PAHs contents range from 35.40 to 534.5 μg/kg with the mean value of 123.09 μg/kg. Soil in Huizhou was slightly polluted by PAHs according to Maliszewska-Kordybach’s study. It can be confirmed that the increase of PAHs contents in the surface soil of Huizhou City is closely connected to human activities. Multivariate analysis was also made in this study. Principal component analysis was used to constrain their origins, and 3 principal components (PCs) were extracted. The results showed that coal combustion and oil spilling made the major contributions to PAHs. Cluster analysis was made and 16 priority PAHs were classified as 4 sorts, and the result revealed the differences in environmental behavior, chemical properties and sources of PAHs.  相似文献   

中日地理学者的论文写作年龄对比分析          下载免费PDF全文

刘云刚  刘冠娜 《地理学报》2009,64(8):1019-1024

以2000年以来的《地理学报》中英文版论文为例,分析了中国地理学者的论文写作年龄特征,包括平均写作年龄、论文写作主体年龄段、高峰期年龄等等,并以日本《地理学评论》为参照,分析了体制环境因素对地理学者论文写作年龄和周期的影响。结果表明,中国地理学母语论文的写作主体是40岁左右年龄段的学者,而英文论文的写作主体是35岁左右年龄段的学者。中国地理学者的母语平均写作年龄要高于日本,但英文论文作者的平均年龄则低于日本,这种差异反映了中日两国在科研管理制度及理念上的不同。在概括分析了两者差异后提出了对中国地理学的学科发展建议。  相似文献   

青海表土花粉分布规律及其与植被的关系   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

魏海成  郑卓  马海州  潘安定  黄康有  罗传秀  郑艳伟  王志英 《干旱区地理》2009,32(6)

对青海地区63个样点进行植被调查及表土样点分析结果显示:青海地区山地针叶林、针阔混交林、高山灌丛-灌丛草甸、温带草原、灌木-半灌木荒漠及高寒荒漠植被区均有相对独特的花粉组合特征。乔木类中桦呈超代表性,云杉、柏、杨属呈低代表性;灌木、草本中白刺、沙拐枣、柽柳呈低代表性,蒿、藜、麻黄呈超代表性,蔷薇科金露梅、银露梅在自身为优势种的落叶灌丛群落中呈低代表性,在针阔叶林、灌丛草甸过渡带中呈适中代表性。禾本科、莎草科、菊科、豆科、十字花科呈低代表性。A/C值在不同生态环境下的变化幅度较大,但数据组显示A/C值中位数值由半干旱向干旱植被区逐次降低,如草甸和草原为4.14,高山灌丛为2.93,荒漠草原为1.22,荒漠灌丛为0.13,荒漠戈壁为0.05。可见,A/C值能很好地反映环境干湿程度,是环境干旱程度的良好指标。  相似文献   

地域文化景观的起源、传播与演变研究——以赣南八景为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴水田  游细斌 《热带地理》2009,29(2)

以赣南八景文化景观为例,结合文化地理学景观理论,运用文献资料、历史还原、时空结合等研究方法,在对八景文化景观的起源与演变等文化地理过程进行分析的基础上,探讨其空间分布概貌和流行原因,阐述其传播的途径和特点,揭示了赣南八景文化的圈层式扩散、随城市空间扩展等时空演变规律,指出其在城市非物质文化遗产保护和开发方面的重要地位.  相似文献   

ROP-ENCS:一个城市游憩空间形态研究的类型化框架     

叶圣涛  保继刚 《热带地理》2009,29(3)

从结构主义视野出发,在剖析城市游憩空间的概念内涵的基础上,分析构成城市游憩系统的主要结构要素和衡量城市游憩空间形态的主要指标,通过二元对立关系刻画并在此基础上相互叠加,进而构建一个ROP-ENCS的类型化框架.该框架对于进一步的理论建构以及城市游憩系统规划都具有一定的参考价值.  相似文献   

经济全球化背景下的产业空间重构   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

李郇  符文颖  刘宏锋 《热带地理》2009,29(5)

探讨在全球化背景下影响产业空间重构的成本因素变化,通过对企业迁移区位和政府产业转移园区区位的分析,揭示广东产业空间重构的趋势与可能的窄间格局,并且从绩效的角度对比了2003和2006年两个时间的广东省域经济增长格局,证明原有的珠三角和外围地区的"核心一边缘"结构已经被打破,产业转移不仅导致了珠三角外围地区经济的快速增长,也同时促使"后厂"的空间拓展和珠三角产业空间的转型.  相似文献