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1.
赵亮  刘健  靳春寒 《气象科学》2019,39(6):739-746
利用中国气象局所属的2 400余个台站观测资料制作的分辨率为0.25°×0.25°数据集中的气温、降水量资料评估了CMIP5中17个模式对于1961—2004年江苏省气温和降水量空间分布特征的模拟能力,筛选出了5个对江苏省气候特征模拟较好的模式。之后基于5个优选模式集合平均的结果预估了3种典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathways,RCPs)下江苏省2006—2100年的气温和降水量变化趋势。结果表明:(1)全球耦合气候模式对江苏省的气温和降水量空间分布特征具有一定的模拟能力,并且模式集合平均的气温和降水量与观测资料的空间相关系数分别为0.85和0.93;(2)在低浓度路径(RCP2.6)、中浓度路径(RCP4.5)和高浓度路径(RCP8.5)3种温室气体排放情景下,江苏省2006—2100年的地表温度均呈现明显的增温趋势,并且苏北的增温幅度要高于苏南;(3)3种温室气体排放情景下,江苏省未来百年降水量均呈现出北方增多南方减少的趋势;(4)未来百年江苏省降水量随气温变化的趋势并不稳定,RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下降水量随气温的升高而增加,而RCP8.5情景下降水量随气温的增加而减少。  相似文献   
2.
基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了近60年来南半球300hPa风暴路径的变化趋势。研究发现,1956—2015年期间,南半球风暴路径出现了较为明显的增强趋势,尤其是在中高纬地区最为显著。通过构造的风暴路径边界指数,发现南半球风暴路径的北界和南界分别存在向赤道和向极的扩张趋势,其中以南界向极偏移趋势最为明显,整个南半球风暴活动带变得更加宽阔和靠近极地。作为风暴路径获取能量的主要来源,背景场西风急流以及下垫面海表面温度的变化对其强弱和位置变化有显著影响,南半球西风急流南强北弱和海表面温度南冷北暖的变化趋势,是南半球风暴路径增强和扩张的重要原因。  相似文献   
3.
For better understanding the phosphorus(P) cycle and its impacts on one of the most important fishing grounds and pressures on the marine ecosystem in the Yellow Sea(YS) and East China Sea(ECS), it is essential to distinguish the contents of different P speciation in sediments and have the knowledge of its distribution and bioavailability. In this study, the modified SEDEX procedure was employed to quantify the different forms of P in sediments. The contents of phosphorus fractions in surface sediments were 0.20–0.89 μmol/g for exchangeable-P(Exch-P), 0.37–2.86 μmol/g for Fe-bound P(Fe-P), 0.61–3.07 μmol/g for authigenic Ca-P(ACa-P), 6.39–13.73μmol/g for detrital-P(DAP) and 0.54–10.06 μmol/g for organic P(OP). The distribution of Exch-P, Fe-P and OP seemed to be similar. The concentrations of Exch-P, Fe-P and OP were slightly higher in the Yellow Sea than that in the East China Sea, and low concentrations could be observed in the middle part of the ECS and southwest off Cheju Island. The distribution of ACa-P was different from those of Exch-P, Fe-P and OP. DAP was the major fraction of sedimentary P in the research region. The sum of Exch-P, Fe-P and OP may be thought to be potentially bioavailable P in the research region. The percentage of bioavailable P in TP ranged from 13% to 61%. Bioavailable P burial flux that appeared regional differences was affected by sedimentation rates, porosity and bioavailable P content, and the distribution of bioavailable P burial flux were almost the same as that of TP burial flux.  相似文献   
4.
This study produced a statistical analysis of multicore eddy structures based on 23 years' altimetry data in global oceans. Multicore structures were identified using a threshold-free closed-contour algorithm of sea surface height, which was improved for this study in respect of certain technical details. Meanwhile a more accurate definition of eddy boundary was used to estimate eddy scale. Generally, multicore structures, which have two or more closed eddies of the same polarity within their boundaries, represent an important transitional stage in their lives during which the component eddies might experience splitting or merging. In comparison with global eddies, the lifetimes and propagation distances of multicore eddies were found to be much smaller because of their inherent structural instability. However, at the same latitude, the spatial scale of multicore eddies was found larger than that of single-core eddies, i.e., the eddy area could be at least twice as large. Multicore eddies were found to exhibit some features similar to global eddies. For example, multicore eddies tend to occur in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, some western boundary currents, and mid-latitude regions around 25°N/S, the majority(70%) of eddies propagate westward while only 30% propagate eastward, and large-amplitude eddies are restricted mainly to reasonably confined regions of highly unstable currents.  相似文献   
5.
利用参与第三次古气候模式评估比较计划(Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III,PMIP3)过去千年气候模拟试验以及参与第五次耦合模式评估比较计划(Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)全强迫历史情景试验的9个地球系统模式模拟试验结果,对过去千年3个特征时段(中世纪气候异常期、小冰期和现代暖期)北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation, AO)的变率及成因进行了分析。通过与NCEP再分析资料的对比发现,模式能够较好地模拟出AO的空间模态及年际变化周期,且大部分模式能够模拟出过去50年AO的增强趋势。过去千年3个特征时段中,不同模式对中世纪气候异常期AO位相的模拟并不一致,但大部分模式显示小冰期AO基本呈现负位相,而现代暖期则表现为显著的正位相,与重建结果一致。基于多模式集合平均的机制分析表明,中世纪气候异常期北极地区海平面气压变化不显著,小冰期北极地区海平面气压显著偏正,现代暖期海平面气压显著偏负,这与现代暖期北极温度偏高而小冰期北极温度偏低有关。过去千年中,小冰期和现代暖期的AO变率分别受自然外强迫和人为外强迫的影响。  相似文献   
6.
闭壳肌的疤痕部位(AMS)是闭壳肌和壳的固定点。它是一个重要的有机-无机界面和应力分布面。尽管有一些近期的研究进展,我们对AMS组成和结构的了解仍然是有限的。这里,我们研究比较了三种双壳类动物:厚壳贻贝、栉孔扇贝、菲律宾蛤仔的AMS。结果表明这三种动物的AMS明显不同。厚壳贻贝和栉孔扇贝在AMS的壳结构珍珠片层上部有一柱状层,该层在厚壳贻贝中的结构更有规律。菲律宾蛤仔缺乏此柱状层。原子力显微镜结果显示在三种软体动物中AMS的结构比珍珠层结构更光滑。傅立叶变换红外分析结果显示珍珠层和AMS层组成成分略有不同。聚丙烯酰胺凝胶电泳蛋白分离结果显示在厚壳贻贝界面柱状层存在一种约70 kDa的蛋白。对这种蛋白的进一步分析显示其还有较高摩尔比的Asx(Asp+Asn),Glx(Glu+Gln)和Gly。AMS的特殊结构和组成对其稳定性、粘性以及在该应力分散部位的功能有重要作用。  相似文献   
7.
利用国家气象中心的站点日降水观测资料,定义一个季节内无降水日出现的频率——空雨频率作为极端干旱的表征指标,对中国487个站点1980—2014年秋、冬、春三个连续季节的空雨频率进行季节-经验正交函数分解(S-EOF),发现我国极端干旱随季节演变的时空分布主要表现为前四个主模态的特征,累积方差贡献为40.6%。第一模态为秋、冬、春三季连旱模态,空雨频率呈现显著的上升趋势,大部分地区为异常变旱,冬季华南沿海变旱最显著。第二模态为秋与冬春干旱的反位相变化模态,空雨频率出现明显的秋-冬-春季反位相的季节反差现象,且存在弱的年代际振荡。第三模态为冬-春极端干旱反位相模态,对冬春两季的代表性较好,秋冬两季空雨频率的空间分布场为以长江流域为中心的极端变旱,而春季空雨频率呈现反位相变化。空雨频率以1998年为突变点存在明显的年代际转折。第四模态为南北偶极型秋-冬-春反位相模态,呈现出长江流域以南与长江流域以北三个季节空雨频率均为相反的位相分布。不同的模态反映不同季节、不同区域的空雨频率的变化,充分表现出我国干旱分布的复杂性。  相似文献   
8.
冬春季节东亚大槽的异常变化常常与寒潮冷空气的活动密切相关,影响中国的寒潮冷空气近年来常常造成初冬、深冬相反的冷冬或暖冬现象,与之相关的东亚大槽是否也存在这样的季节内反位相变化特征,是本文研究的主要目的。本文利用季节经验正交分解(S-EOF)方法,对冬春季节内的初冬(11—12月)、深冬(1—2月)、初春(3—4月)东亚大槽区域500 hPa位势高度场的季节内演变时空主模态特征进行了分析,结果发现:东亚大槽主要表现为深冬(初冬初春)向北退缩(向南加深)型和冬春一致加强(减弱)型两个主模态,分别解释了23.3%和17.2%的方差贡献。S-EOF第一模态主要表现为东亚大槽在初冬、初春向南加深(向北退缩)和在深冬向北退缩(向南加深)的季节内反位相变化特征,此时,初冬、初春阿留申低压向南增强(向北减弱),中国东南沿海以东区域降温(升温),欧亚大陆北部升温(降温);而深冬阿留申低压减弱(增强),日本南部到我国东北、华北地区升温(降温);该模态与冬季Mega-ENSO型海温存在着密切的联系。S-EOF第二模态(东亚大槽冬春一致加强(减弱)型)主要表现为东亚大槽从初冬到初春的一致性加强(减弱)特征,此时北半球大气主要受北极涛动负位相(正位相)控制,欧亚大陆中东部地区大范围降温(升温);该模态主要受到传统La Niňa(El Niňo)型海温以及印度洋海盆一致模的影响。  相似文献   
9.
This paper is focused on the seasonality change of Arctic sea ice extent(SIE) from 1979 to 2100 using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5).A new approach to compare the simulation metric of Arctic SIE between observation and 31 CMIP5 models was established.The approach is based on four factors including the climatological average,linear trend of SIE,span of melting season and annual range of SIE.It is more objective and can be popularized to other comparison of models.Six good models(GFDL-CM3,CESM1-BGC,MPI-ESM-LR,ACCESS-1.0,Had GEM2-CC,and Had GEM2-AO in turn) are found which meet the criterion closely based on above approach.Based on ensemble mean of the six models,we found that the Arctic sea ice will continue declining in each season and firstly drop below 1 million km~2(defined as the ice-free state) in September 2065 under RCP4.5 scenario and in September 2053 under RCP8.5 scenario.We also study the seasonal cycle of the Arctic SIE and find out the duration of Arctic summer(melting season) will increase by about 100 days under RCP4.5 scenario and about 200 days under RCP8.5 scenario relative to current circumstance by the end of the 21 st century.Asymmetry of the Arctic SIE seasonal cycle with later freezing in fall and early melting in spring,would be more apparent in the future when the Arctic climate approaches to "tipping point",or when the ice-free Arctic Ocean appears.Annual range of SIE(seasonal melting ice extent) will increase almost linearly in the near future 30–40 years before the Arctic appears ice-free ocean,indicating the more ice melting in summer,the more ice freezing in winter,which may cause more extreme weather events in both winter and summer in the future years.  相似文献   
10.
利用国家气候中心提供的1958—2013年756个台站的逐日降水资料,定义了“弱台风大暴雨”事件,并对其发生的时间和空间分布特征进行统计分析,初步揭示了有利于“弱台风大暴雨”发生的大气异常环流特征。结果表明:“弱台风大暴雨”降水事件主要发生于5—10月,但初秋的10月该事件发生的占比最高;“弱台风大暴雨”降水事件发生次数在20世纪80年代中期后有明显的增加,整体呈现3~5 a的周期振荡,盛夏(7—8月)是“弱台风大暴雨”降水事件的最多发生时段;空间上,初夏(5—6月)事件分布面积最小,盛夏最广;有利于“弱台风大暴雨”降水事件多发的大气环流场主要是在北极涛动正位相异常环流背景下,中纬度西风带较为稳定平直,有利于中纬度大气类环球遥相关型定常波列的持续稳定,使得东亚地区维持的高压异常环流有利于北方冷空气南下,与热带气旋带来的暖湿气流交汇;同时,西太平洋副热带高压的偏弱有利于登陆我国的台风停留时间增加以及水汽的源源不断输送,水汽的主要来源是北太平洋西南侧和南海、孟加拉湾等热带季风区。  相似文献   
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