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1.
基于MODE对模式预报强风风场的检验分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
陈笑  赵东  何晓凤  沈历都  申双和  宋丽莉  刘善峰 《气象》2018,44(8):1009-1019
基于专业气象服务领域十分关注的模式强风预报性能的客观检验和致灾性强风预警服务效果的合理性判别问题,利用一次强风过程对电网专业气象预警服务效果的检验示范,探讨基于目标(面向对象)的诊断检验方法(Method for ObjectBased Diagnostic Evaluation,MODE)对强风事件检验的适用性。通过对强风空间检验的各个关键参数的选择确定、匹配分析,发现:(1)MODE检验的卷积半径、诊断量权重和匹配阈值等参数的选择,将影响检验目标的适度聚焦和误差表达的客观性,因此需要综合考虑预报和实况场的水平分辨率、用户对该类强天气预报误差的空间和时间冗余度等;(2)MODE检验可较好地量化给出模式预报的整体效果,包括:强风落区的范围大小和位置偏差、强风过程的时间相位差等,从而可量化判别出模式在各个时刻的空报和漏报区域以及对强风过程移动速度和生命周期长度的预报性能。  相似文献   
2.
本文提出模拟地层沉积及成岩过程的矿物沉积算法,建立数字岩石模型,并通过对比Micro-CT扫描图像和数值模型的局部孔隙度及平均渗流概率函数分布特征,评价建模的准确性.结果表明,由二维扫描提取的粒径信息作为输入参数,模拟矿物沉积过程建模得到的三维数字岩石模型,能够准确重构原始岩心的非均质性及渗流特性,成功应用于泥质砂岩、碳酸盐岩、页岩等存在多矿物或多尺度孔隙的数字岩石建模中.数字岩石物理是正在兴起的重要技术.数字岩石采用超高分辨率先进成像装备,采集和表征微纳尺度岩石结构,在岩石弹性、电性、核磁、渗流特性等数值计算中发挥重要作用.但是,由于三维直接成像在有限视域内难以表征足够的岩石非均质性,提取二维结构统计特征,利用统计或地质过程法重构具有代表性的三维岩石结构成为十分有价值的研究课题,而且,对业界大量存在的岩石薄片及电镜高清二维图像的深度开发应用也具有重要的现实意义.本文发展的新方法,复原沉积过程,较好地解决了孔隙尺度岩石物理定量研究中数值建模与理论计算的技术瓶颈.  相似文献   
3.
多重加密格网内插法坐标转换   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
我国CGCS2000坐标系启用后,各地均面临着大批量、多类型、多坐标系成果数据坐标转换的需求,而国家大地坐标系、地心坐标系及独立坐标系之间的转换参数属于绝密级别,保密要求高,因此给实际应用带来了困难。顾及与参数法坐标转换成果的一致性及数据的安全要求,本文提出了多重加密格网内插坐标转换方法,研制了适用于多种数据格式的二/三维格网坐标转换软件,并将该算法应用于CORS服务,通过实例验证了该方法的可靠性与实用性。  相似文献   
4.
Based on the principle of InSAR (Interferometirc Synthetic Aperture Radar) characterized by large-scale, continuity, permanency and dynamic, we took vertical displacement of solid Earth tide as an example to simulate the large-scale deformation observed by lunar based InSAR for the first time in the study and the observation ability was analyzed. Solid Earth tide has a feature of a large-space distribution range and the lunar based InSAR exhibits a feature of an ultra-wide swath imaging. According to these features, a simplified observation geometry model was established and a mid-low latitudes area with 50 degrees span in both longitude and latitude was selected as the simulation area. Then the revisit time intervals of the lunar based SAR for the selected area and the tidal vertical displacements at the points scanned by the radar were calculated. The time differentials were further computed to get the relative vertical deformation of the solid Earth tide. The simulation results show that the revisit period of the lunar based radar is about 24.8 hours and the maximum vertical displacement in 30 days is up to 30 cm. Since the designed accuracy of the lunar based InSAR reaches several centimeters, the observing of the vertical displacement of the solid Earth tide by using the lunar based InSAR is feasible in theory as the maximum magnitude of the vertical displacement is 1 order of magnitude larger than the designed accuracy. Theoretically ,solid Earth tide is observable by using lunar based InSAR in a sizable area.We can also use the observation data to study the temporal and spatial variation characteristics when observation time lasts two revisit periods or more. On the other hand,the result of the study also provides references for the parameter designing of other observations using the lunar based InSAR, especially for observing large-scale geodynamic phenomena.  相似文献   
5.
ABSTRACT

Since piles are one of the major geotechnical foundation systems, estimation of their axial bearing capacity is of great importance. Employing different design methods, resulting in a wide range of bearing capacity estimations, complicates the selection of an appropriate design scheme and confirms the existence of model error along with the inherent soil variability in bearing capacity prediction. This paper tends to evaluate different predictive methods in Reliability-Based Design (RBD) framework. In this regard, different static analyses, SPT and CPT-based methods are considered to evaluate which approaches collectively and which method individually, have more reliable predictions for compiled data bank. In order to assess reliability indices and resistance factors, two approaches have been considered, i.e. First Order Second Moment method (FOSM) and First Order Reliability Method (FORM). To investigate the reliability indices for different methods in both RBD approaches, various safety factors and loading ratios have been considered. Also, the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) resistance factors are calibrated for different target reliability indices and loading ratios. Results show that CPT-based methods are more reliable among other methods. Furthermore, the estimated efficiency ratio, i.e. the ratio of resistance factor to resistance bias factor, confirms this agreement.  相似文献   
6.
避难场所可达性是指避难场所与受灾居民之间的通达性,即灾害发生时,避难人员通过避难疏散通道到达避难场所的难易程度,是评价避难场所布局合理性的重要指标。本研究结合高斯两步移动搜寻法和网络分析法,从供需双向出发对村镇地区避难场所进行可达性分析。2种方法的结合,既充分考虑了需求点与设施点的相互作用,又充分考虑了设施点的吸引力随距离的衰减关系,并基于实际道路,以步行疏散时间作为搜索半径,降低了传统研究中因忽略供需间相互作用及实际距离而引起的可达性结果的误差。最后,以神农架松柏镇区为例,验证该方法的实际应用价值。结果表明,该方法能够有效测定村镇地区避难场所的空间可达性,同时,基于GIS软件可以直观地揭示研究区域内避难场所可达性空间分布差异。该方法可为制定科学的村镇防灾减灾规划提供方法支持。  相似文献   
7.
The restoration of meadowland using the pond and plug technique of gully elimination was performed in a 9‐mile segment along Last Chance Creek, Feather River Basin, California, in order to rehabilitate floodplain functions such as mitigating floods, retaining groundwater, and reducing sediment yield associated with bank erosion and to significantly alter the hydrologic regime. However, because the atmospheric and hydrological conditions have evolved over the restoration period, it was difficult to obtain a comprehensible evaluation of the impact of restoration activities by means of field measurements. In this paper, a new use of physically based models for environmental assessment is described. The atmospheric conditions over the sparsely gauged Last Chance Creek watershed (which does not have any precipitation or weather stations) during the combined historical critical dry and wet period (1982–1993) were reconstructed over the whole watershed using the atmospheric fifth‐generation mesoscale model driven with the US National Center for Atmospheric Research and US National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. Using the downscaled atmospheric data as its input, the watershed environmental hydrology (WEHY) model was applied to this watershed. All physical parameters of the WEHY model were derived from the existing geographic information system and satellite‐driven data sets. By comparing the prerestoration and postrestoration simulation results under the identical atmospheric conditions, a more complete environmental assessment of the restoration project was made. Model results indicate that the flood peak may be reduced by 10–20% during the wet year and the baseflow may be enhanced by 10–20% during the following dry seasons (summer to fall) in the postrestoration condition. The model results also showed that the hydrologic impact of the land management associated with the restoration mitigates bank erosion and sediment discharge during winter storm events. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
8.
潘波  程滔  徐丹  刘松军 《岩石学报》2020,36(7):2067-2080
长白山天池火口北侧天文峰之上,一套醒目的黄色浮岩引起广泛的关注,其颜色成因问题更是讨论的热点。本文通过野外地质调查、显微形貌和地球化学分析等方法,探索了黄色浮岩的颜色成因问题,并对此次喷发活动(天文峰期喷发)有了更进一步的认识。黄色浮岩与其下部灰白色浮岩应为同一期喷发所形成,两者成分一致且特征相似。黄色浮岩初始颜色为灰白色,后期受所处环境(降水丰富)与本身气孔特征的影响,浮岩内发生了元素析出和元素沉淀的过程。首先,浮岩内Si与H2O结合形成弱硅酸(H2Si O3),而大气中CO2与H2O结合形成弱碳酸(H2CO3),在弱酸环境下火山玻璃逐渐析出Si、K、Al、Ca和Fe等阳离子,而析出的元素易溶于水的部分被流水带走,难溶于水的Fe与Al富集并粘附在火山玻璃壁上,同时由于Fe可与H2O络合形成黄色的Fe的水合物(Fe2O3·n H2O),而Al与H2O络合形成凝胶状白色水合物(Al2O3·n H2O),两者混合形成了黄色胶状物粘附在火山玻璃壁上,改变了浮岩原本的灰白色,形成了黄色浮岩。因此,天文峰期浮岩的黄色是由于后期风化淋滤作用所造成,属于次生色。本研究提高了对火山喷发堆积物风化淋滤作用过程的认识,也为其他地区相似颜色变化问题的讨论提供了借鉴。  相似文献   
9.
针对地基增强系统(GBAS)非完好性事件的极端性,开展GBAS完好性算法研究,给出H0和H1假设下的机载端保护级计算方法,并分析GBAS中引起“虚警”和“漏警”两类非完好性事件的主要误差源。实验结果表明,机载端伪距经过差分校正后其位置精度优于1 m,可用性大于99.999 9%,满足CAT Ⅰ精密进近着陆导航需求。同时,进行非完好性事件仿真验证的结果表明,卫星几何分布和电离层风暴是引起“虚警”和“漏警”的主要误差源,未来CAT Ⅲ GBAS需将单星座扩展为包括北斗在内的多星座,将单频升级为双频,其中多星座可以优化卫星的几何布局,双频可以消除电离层风暴的影响。  相似文献   
10.
RPGCA程序负责将CINRAD/CD型雷达的archive基数据标准化命名后压缩上传,此数据是新一代天气雷达站的业务考核内容,同时也是雷达拼图、GR2等短临预报软件的必要数据。但实际使用下来发现RPGCA程序有传输时效性不高,系统资源占用较大等弊端。因此,本站使用C#开发了RPGCA改进版,此改进版不仅具有RPGCA程序的所有功能,并且改进了原版的弊端,同时增加了一些实用功能,提高了数据上传的时效性和稳定性。  相似文献   
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