台风“摩羯”与“温比亚”环流中龙卷小尺度涡旋特征及可预警性分析          下载免费PDF全文

刁秀广  孟宪贵  张立  任钟冬  赵海军 《山东气象》2019,39(3):19-28

利用多普勒天气雷达探测资料,结合常规气象观测资料和天气实况及灾情调查,对2018年8月14日台风“摩羯”（1814）和8月19日台风“温比亚”（1818）产生龙卷的环境物理量及龙卷风暴强度结构特征进行了分析,对诱发龙卷和未诱发龙卷的小尺度气旋性涡旋特征进行了对比。结果表明：两次台风减弱低压东北象限是龙卷发生的关键区,低层高湿,强的低层垂直风切变和大的相对风暴螺旋度是关键物理量;龙卷出现时都伴有ΔV＞20.0 m·s-1的小尺度气旋性涡旋,且基本出现在2.0 km高度以下,但并不是所有这种低层小尺度气旋性涡旋都能诱发龙卷;以ΔV＞20.0 m·s-1为阈值,龙卷识别具有较高的命中率,识别准确率为31.8%,空报率为67.4%,漏报率为6.7%;约35.7%的龙卷没有识别时间提前量,半数龙卷几乎没有预警时间提前量。  相似文献   

印尼贯穿流源区马鲁古海与哈马黑拉海水团来源的季节和年际变化   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

王露  周磊  谢玲玲  郑全安  李强  李明明 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(4):58-71

So far, large uncertainties of the Indonesian throughflow(ITF) reside in the eastern Indonesian seas, such as the Maluku Sea and the Halmahera Sea. In this study, the water sources of the Maluku Sea and the Halmahera Sea are diagnosed at seasonal and interannual timescales and at different vertical layers, using the state-of-the-art simulations of the Ocean General Circulation Model(OGCM) for Earth Simulator(OFES). Asian monsoon leaves clear seasonal footprints on the eastern Indonesian seas. Consequently, the subsurface waters(around 24.5σ_θ and at ～150 m) in both the Maluku Sea and the Halmahera Sea stem from the South Pacific(SP) during winter monsoon, but during summer monsoon the Maluku Sea is from the North Pacific(NP), and the Halmahera Sea is a mixture of waters originating from the NP and the SP. The monsoon impact decreases with depth, so that in the Maluku Sea, the intermediate water(around 26.8σ_θ and at ～480 m) is always from the northern Banda Sea and the Halmahera Sea water is mainly from the SP in winter and the Banda Sea in summer. The deep waters(around27.2σ_θ and at ～1 040 m) in both seas are from the SP, with weak seasonal variability. At the interannual timescale,the subsurface water in the Maluku Sea originates from the NP/SP during El Ni?o/La Ni?a, while the subsurface water in the Halmahera Sea always originates from the SP. Similar to the seasonal variability, the intermediate water in Maluku Sea mainly comes from the Banda Sea and the Halmahera Sea always originates from the SP. The deep waters in both seas are from the SP. Our findings are helpful for drawing a comprehensive picture of the water properties in the Indonesian seas and will contribute to a better understanding of the ocean-atmosphere interaction over the maritime continent.  相似文献   

The interanual rainfall variability in Indonesia corresponding to El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole     

Hendrawan I Gede  Asai Koji  Triwahyuni Andhit  Lestari Diah Valentina 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(7):57-66

The Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) and the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation(ENSO) event for Indonesian rainfall has been investigated for the period from 1950 to 2011. Inter-annual change of IOD and ENSO indices are used to investigate their relationship with Indonesian rainfall. By using the wavelet transform method, we found a positive significant correlation between IOD and Indonesian rainfall on the time scale of nearly 2.5–4 years.Furthermore, the positive significant correlation between ENSO(sea surface temperature anomaly at Ni?o3.4 area indices) and Indonesian rainfall exists for shorter than 2 years and between 5.5 to 6.5-year time scales.  相似文献   

利用综合评分方法评估CMIP5模式对北极海冰的模拟能力     

吴利萍  杨小怡  胡建宇 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(9):48-58

北极海冰冰盖自20世纪以来经历了前所未有的缩减，这使得北极海冰异常对大气环流的反馈作用日益显现。尽管目前的气候模式模拟北极海冰均为减少的趋势，但各模式间仍然存在较大的分散性。为了评估模式对于北极海冰变化及其气候效应的模拟能力，我们将海冰线性趋势和年际异常两者结合起来构造了一种合理的衡量指标。我们还强调巴伦支与卡拉海的重要性，因为前人研究证明此区域海冰异常是近年来影响大尺度大气环流变异的关键因子。根据我们设定的标准，CMIP5模式对海冰的模拟可被归为三种类型。这三组多模式集合平均之间存在巨大的差异，验证了这种分组方法的合理性。此外，我们还进一步探讨了造成模式海冰模拟能力差别的潜在物理因子。结果表明模式所采用的臭氧资料集对海冰模拟能力有显著的影响。  相似文献   

中国近海蒸发波导的数值模拟与预报研究     

陈莉  高山红  康士峰  吴增茂 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2011,(Z1):1-8

利用中尺度大气模式MM5对2007年中国近海大气蒸发波导进行了全年的高分辨的数值模拟。模拟结果统计表明,整个海域蒸发波导的平均出现概率约为90%。本文重点关注强度较大的蒸发波导,详细分析了其季节分布特征及其与海洋环流和海面气象条件的相关关系。研究发现,25°N以南的开阔海域的蒸发波导出现概率全年都较高,而以北的东海西北部、黄海与渤海,蒸发波导的出现概率呈现明显的季节特征;蒸发波导的空间分布受中国近海海洋环流的强烈影响,存在1个与黑潮区域相一致的带状波导高出现概率区域,台湾暖流、黄海暖流和对马暖流使得在某些季节相应海域蒸发波导出现概率高于其周围海域。此外,本文还基于WRF模式及其3DVAR系统构建了大气波导数值预报系统,尝试对中国东南海域的蒸发波导进行数值预报。  相似文献   

Influence of positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipoles on ENSO via the Indonesian Throughflow: Results from sensitivity experiments     

ZHOU Qian  DUAN Wansuo  MU Mu  FENG Rong 《大气科学进展》2015,32(6):783-793

The role of the Indonesian Throughflow(ITF) in the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) on ENSO is investigated using version 2 of the Parallel Ocean Program(POP2) ocean general circulation model. We demonstrate the results through sensitivity experiments on both positive and negative IOD events from observations and coupled general circulation model simulations. By shutting down the atmospheric bridge while maintaining the tropical oceanic channel, the IOD forcing is shown to influence the ENSO event in the following year, and the role of the ITF is emphasized. During positive IOD events,negative sea surface height anomalies(SSHAs) occur in the eastern Indian Ocean, indicating the existence of upwelling.These upwelling anomalies pass through the Indonesian seas and enter the western tropical Pacific, resulting in cold anomalies there. These cold temperature anomalies further propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific, and ultimately induce a La Nia-like mode in the following year. In contrast, during negative IOD events, positive SSHAs are established in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to downwelling anomalies that can also propagate into the subsurface of the western Pacific Ocean and travel further eastward. These downwelling anomalies induce negative ITF transport anomalies, and an El Nio-like mode in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that persists into the following year. The effects of negative and positive IOD events on ENSO via the ITF are symmetric. Finally, we also estimate the contribution of IOD forcing in explaining the Pacific variability associated with ENSO via ITF.  相似文献   

Long-Term Variability of Volume and Heat Transport in the Nordic Seas: A Model Study     

Sarah Lundrigan 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):156-168

This article presents results from a model study of interannual and decadal variability in the Nordic Seas. Fifty years of simulations were conducted in an initial condition ensemble mode forced with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis. We studied two major events in the interannual and interdecadal variability of the Nordic Seas during the past fifty years: the Great Salinity Anomaly in the 1960s and early 1970s and the warming of the Arctic and subarctic oceans in the late 1990s.

Previous studies demonstrated that the Great Salinity Anomaly observed in the subarctic ocean in 1960 was originally generated by intensified sea-ice and freshwater inflow from the Arctic Ocean. Our model results demonstrate that the increase in the transport of fresh and cold waters through Fram Strait in the 1960s was concurrent with a reduction in the meridional water exchange over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. The resulting imbalance in salinity and heat fluxes through the strait and over the ridge also contributed to the freshening of the water masses of the Nordic Seas and intensified the Great Salinity Anomaly in the Nordic Seas.

The warming of the Atlantic Waters in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean during the past two decades had an important impact on the variability of these two ocean basins. Some previous observational and model studies demonstrated that the warming of the subpolar Atlantic Ocean in the late 1990s and the meridional transport of the Atlantic Water mass (AW) into the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean contributed to this process. At the same time, observations show that the warming of the AW in the Nordic Seas started in the 1980s (i.e., earlier than the warming of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean). Our model results suggest that this process was triggered by an imbalance in the lateral heat fluxes through Fram Strait and over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. In the late 1980s the AW transport over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge was stronger than normal while the exchange through Fram Strait was close to normal. The related imbalance in the lateral heat fluxes through the strait and over the ridge warmed the Nordic Seas and caused an increase in the temperature of the AW inflow to the Arctic Ocean in the late 1980s (i.e., about a decade earlier than the warming of the source of the AW in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean). Thus the model results suggest that the imbalance in lateral heat and salinity fluxes through the strait and over the ridge connecting the Nordic Seas to the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans could amplify the interannual variability in the subarctic ocean.

[Traduit par la rédaction] Cet article présente les résultats d'une étude par modèle de la variabilité interannuelle et décennale dans les mers nordiques. Nous avons effectué des simulations sur une période de cinquante ans en mode d'ensemble de conditions initiales forcé avec les réanalyses des NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction). Nous avons étudié deux événements majeurs survenus dans la variabilité interannuelle et décennale des mers nordiques au cours des cinquante dernières années : la grande anomalie de salinité des années 1960 et du début des années 1970 et le réchauffement des océans Arctique et subarctique vers la fin des années 1990.

Des études précédentes ont démontrées que la grande anomalie de salinité observée dans l'océan subarctique en 1960 a été causée par une intensification de l'apport de glace de mer et d'eau douce depuis l'océan Arctique. Les résultats que nous avons obtenus du modèle montrent que l'accroissement du transport d'eau douce et froide à travers le détroit de Fram dans les années 1960 s'est produit en même temps qu'une réduction dans l’échange méridien d'eau au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse. Le déséquilibre résultant dans les flux de salinité et de chaleur à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête a aussi contribué à l'adoucissement des masses d'eau des mers nordiques et a intensifié la grande anomalie de salinité dans les mers nordiques.

Le réchauffement des eaux atlantiques dans les mers nordiques et dans l'océan Arctique au cours des deux dernières décennies a eu un impact important sur la variabilité de ces deux bassins océaniques. Des études observationnelles et par modèle précédentes ont établi que le réchauffement de l'océan Atlantique subpolaire dans les années 1990 et le transport méridien de la masse d'eau atlantique dans les mers nordiques et dans l'océan Arctique ont contribué à ce processus. En même temps, les observations montrent que le réchauffement des eaux atlantiques dans les mers nordiques a commencé dans les années 1980 (c.–à–d. plus tôt que le réchauffement de l'océan Nord-Atlantique subpolaire). Les résultats du modèle suggèrent que ce processus a été déclenché par un déséquilibre dans les flux de chaleur latéraux à travers le détroit de Fram et au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse. À la fin des années 1980, le transport des eaux atlantiques au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse était plus fort que la normale alors que l’échange à travers le détroit de Fram était près de la normale. Le déséquilibre résultant dans les flux de chaleur latéraux à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête a réchauffé les mers nordiques et causé une augmentation de la température des eaux atlantiques parvenant à l'océan Arctique à la fin des années 1980 (c.-à-d. environ une décennie avant le réchauffement de la source d'eaux atlantiques dans l'océan Nord-Atlantique subpolaire). Donc, les résultats du modèle suggèrent que le déséquilibre dans les flux de chaleur et de salinité latéraux à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête reliant les mers nordiques à l'Atlantique Nord et à l'Arctique pourrait amplifier la variabilité interannuelle dans l'océan subarctique.  相似文献   

Taiwan and China: A unique fisheries relationship     

Huan-Sheng Tseng  Ching-Hsiewn Ou 《Marine Policy》2010

Taiwan and China have a long history of sharing marine resources in the China Seas. However, due to political issues, the two sides have yet to formalize collaboration and interaction despite such a close geographical relationship. The lack of formal collaboration means they cannot manage fisheries or conserve resources as a team. The lack of collaboration in the regional fisheries management organizations also means a mutually beneficial situation for the two sides is yet to be achieved. Recognizing this, the two sides began negotiations in 2008 and have since signed agreements on fisheries co-operation projects. This paper discusses the unique fisheries relationship between Taiwan and China, and the characteristics of their fishing industries. The paper also presents the latest update on the collaboration between the two sides. Finally, this paper proposes practical solutions for resolving outstanding issues between the two sides’ fishing industries.  相似文献   

A deep burrowing sipunculan of ecological and geochemical importance     

Mark A. Shields  Monika Kedra 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2009,56(11):2057-2064

In late 1980s, a dense network of deep capillary burrows was reported on the Vøring Plateau, Nordic Seas, and associated with a sipunculan belonging to the genus Nephasoma. This sipunculan was responsible for rapid transport of organic matter from the sediment surface down a deep burrow network. Over 460 specimens belonging to the genus Nephasoma were collected from the deep Nordic Seas during four cruises from 2000–2005 and four species identified: Nephasoma abyssorum abyssorum, N. diaphanes diaphanes, N. diaphanes corrugatum and N. lilljeborgi. The species responsible for the deep burrows and rapid subduction of organic matter can now be confirmed as Nephasoma lilljeborgi. Deep burrows associated with N. lilljeborgi were observed on the Vøring Plateau, Bear Island Fan, Svalbard Margin and Yermak Plateau and may be a seabed feature endemic to the Nordic Seas region. N. lilljeborgi could have a significant role in influencing the ecology and geochemistry of the Nordic Seas region. It is recommended that future benthic community studies in the Nordic Seas region confirm the species identity of sipunculan specimens in order to determine the ecological and geochemical importance of the specimens.  相似文献   

Transports of Nordic Seas water masses and excess SF₆ through Fram Strait to the Arctic Ocean     

Marika Marnela  Bert Rudels  K. Anders Olsson  Leif G. Anderson  Daniel J. Torres  James H. Swift 《Progress in Oceanography》2008,78(1):1-11

To determine the exchanges between the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait is one of the most important aspects, and one of the major challenges, in describing the circulation in the Arctic Mediterranean Sea. Especially the northward transport of Arctic Intermediate Water (AIW) from the Nordic Seas into the Arctic Ocean is little known. In the two-ship study of the circulation in the Nordic Seas, Arctic Ocean - 2002, the Swedish icebreaker Oden operated in the ice-covered areas in and north of Fram Strait and in the western margins of Greenland and Iceland seas, while RV Knorr of Woods Hole worked in the ice free part of the Nordic Seas. Here two hydrographic sections obtained by Oden, augmented by tracer and velocity measurements with Lowered Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (LADCP), are examined. The first section, reaching from the Svalbard shelf across the Yermak Plateau, covers the region north of Svalbard where inflow to the Arctic Ocean takes place. The second, western, section spans the outflow area extending from west of the Yermak Plateau onto the Greenland shelf. Geostrophic and LADCP derived velocities are both used to estimate the exchanges of water masses between the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean. The geostrophic computations indicate a total flow of 3.6 Sv entering the Arctic on the eastern section. The southward flow on the western section is found to be 5.1 Sv. The total inflow to the Arctic Ocean obtained using the LADCP derived velocities is much larger, 13.6 Sv, and the southward transport on the western section is 13.7 Sv, equal to the northward transport north of Svalbard. Sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) originating from a tracer release experiment in the Greenland Sea in 1996 has become a marker for the circulation of AIW. From the geostrophic velocities we obtain 0.5 Sv and from the LADCP derived velocities 2.8 Sv of AIW flowing into the Arctic. The annual transport of SF₆ into the Arctic Ocean derived from geostrophy is 5 kg/year, which is of the same magnitude as the observed total annual transport into the North Atlantic, while the LADCP measurements (19 kg/year) imply that it is substantially larger. Little SF₆ was found on the western section, confirming the dominance of the Arctic Ocean water masses and indicating that the major recirculation in Fram Strait takes place farther to the south.  相似文献