基于WRF模式的风电场短期风速集成预报方法研究     

叶小岭  支兴亮  邓华 《气象》2019,45(1):88-98

风能始源于大气的运动,具有很大的随机性和间歇性。风速预测是风电场风功率预测的基础,其准确性具有重要的意义。对于复杂地形条件下,风速的预报一直是各国研究的难点和重点。为了提高风电场短期风速预报的准确性,本研究采用多种边界层参数化方案来集成预报风速,将各单一边界层参数化方案预报的风速及相应的实测风速数据,应用随机森林算法建立集成预报模型,对风电场的短期风速进行集成预报研究。试验结果表明,采用集成预报风速方法,预报的风速误差相比于单一边界层参数化方案预报的风速误差明显减小,对研究区域的风速、风向等气象要素有着较好的模拟效果,能够有效提高风速预报的准确率。  相似文献   

基于ERA40资料的边界层厚度气候特征分析     

王学忠  胡邦辉  李昀英 《气象科学》2011,31(3):339-346

为了解边界层厚度的大尺度分布及其气候循环特征,基于逐日ERA 40 再分析边界层厚度资料,采用统计学方法计算边界层厚度分4个时次的季节循环、年较差等气候特征场,对全球边界层厚度分布及其季节演变特征进行了研究。结果表明：全球较厚的边界层分布与大地形、沙漠等下垫面的分布有直接联系;陆地强边界层分布存在“08时”现象,即陆地较厚边界层中心分布在当地时间08时经线附近;在大洋上南北纬30°~40°两条纬度带内边界层厚度的月尺度内变率较大,与大气强斜压性的天气系统活跃区一致;月平均日较差的年循环特征存在着季节性南北进退的现象。研究结果对于全面认识和科学利用ERA 40逐日边界层再分析资料有一定帮助。  相似文献   

晴天及阴天条件下WRF模式中几种边界层参数化方案的对比分析研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

王成刚  沈滢洁  罗峰  曹乐  严家德  姜海梅 《地球物理学报》2017,60(3):924-934

利用WRF模式中5种常用边界层参数化方案(ACM2、YSU、BouLac、MYJ和MYNN2.5)及美国能源部大气辐射观测试验(ARM)寿县综合观测数据(2008年8—12月),对比分析了晴天及阴天条件下,不同参数化方案对典型农田下垫面气象要素及边界层结构的模拟效果,结果表明:(1)模式对于云层状况的模拟,非局地方案ACM2和YSU方案优于局地方案.(2)对于近地层气象要素,晴天和阴天条件下均是ACM2方案对于2 m温度和比湿的模拟效果最好,MYJ方案对于风向风速的模拟效果最好.(3)对于位温及比湿垂直廓线的模拟,晴天和阴天条件下均是非局地方案(ACM2和YSU)对白天的模拟效果优于局地方案;ACM2方案对夜间弱稳定层结和逆湿结构的模拟最优;(4)对于风速垂直廓线的模拟,白天不稳定条件下,晴天条件MYJ方案最优,阴天MYNN2.5方案的模拟效果最好;夜间弱稳定条件下,晴天条件ACM2方案与观测值之间的偏差最小,阴天YSU方案模拟效果最好;(5)总体而言,在对典型农田下垫面进行模拟时,晴天和阴天条件下均是ACM2方案更具优势.  相似文献   

An inconvenient “truth” about using sensible heat flux as a surface boundary condition in models under stably stratified regimes     

Sukanta Basu  Albert A. M. Holtslag  Bas J. H. Van De Wiel  Arnold F. Moene  Gert-Jan Steeneveld 《Acta Geophysica》2008,56(1):88-99

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Parameterisation of the Planetary Boundary Layer for Diagnostic Wind Models     

Massimiliano Burlando  Emilia Georgieva  Corrado F. Ratto 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,125(2):389-397

The planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization is a key issue for the definition of initial wind flow fields in diagnostic models. However, PBL theories usually treat separately stable, neutral, and convective stability conditions, so that their implementation in diagnostic wind models is not straightforward. In the present paper, an attempt is made to adopt a comprehensive PBL parameterisation, covering stable/neutral and unstable atmospheric conditions, which appears suitable to diagnostic models. This parameterisation is implemented into our diagnostic mass-consistent code. A validation of the consistency between the implemented PBL parameterisations has been checked through an analysis of the sensitivity of the vertical wind profiles to atmospheric stability.  相似文献   

Comments on: ‘The Neutral, Barotropic Planetary Boundary Layer, Capped by a Low-Level Inversion’ by G. D. Hess, Boundary-Layer Meteorology (2004) 110, pp. 319–355     

Juan Carlos Bergmann 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,119(1):171-179

Precision measurements indicate that the stability capping of the neutral planetary boundary layer (PBL) that leads to a reduced PBL height is caused by the very stable upper part of the PBL, rather than by an overlying inversion. Radiative processes related to liquid water in boundary-layer clouds seem to play the key role for the formation of the stable upper PBL. The famous Leipzig Profile – generally considered as an example of a neutral PBL – has been included in Hess’s analysis because its PBL height is considerably lower than the ca. 3000 m to be expected by numerical models in truly neutral conditions. An analysis of the original observations reveals that the Leipzig PBL was stable and that it can be consistently treated as a ‘normal’ stable PBL with a height of ca. 700 m. A further finding is that the super-geostrophic PBL wind speed maxima predicted by almost all models are not observed in near-steady-state conditions. For the ‘ranking’ of analytical models versus numerical models, the comparisons with measurements show that the analytical models perform comparably well and even partially better than the numerical models.  相似文献   

古尔班通古特沙漠大气边界层参数化方案的模拟评估[1]     

王豫  阿吉古丽·沙依提  买买提艾力·买买提依明  周成龙  高佳程 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2020,14(4):78-87

为准确描述我国最大的固定/半固定沙漠-古尔班通古特沙漠区域的大气边界层结构，本文利用该沙漠腹地2017年的梯度铁塔和通量观测数据，基于中尺度气象模式WRF (Weather Research and Forecast v3.7.1)，分析了5种边界层参数化方案在古尔班通古特沙漠的适用性。结果表明：1）采用WRF模拟沙漠腹地近地层内的边界层特征时，2m气温的模拟存在冷偏差，5种边界层参数化方案均能较好地模拟出四个季节2m气温的日变化特征，其中非局地方案ACM2(Asymmetric Convective Model version 2)对2m气温效果最好，局地方案BL方案的模拟偏差最大；2）5种边界层参数化方案均能够模拟出10m风速的日变化特征，其中局地方案BL(Bougeault-Lacarrere)对10m风速效果最佳；3）采用WRF模拟沙漠近地层内的地表通量特征时，感热通量存在高估现象，潜热通量存在低估现象，5种边界层参数化方案均能较好地模拟出四个季节模拟时间段内地表净辐射通量的日变化特征，其中局地方案MYJ(Mellor-Yamada-Janjie)的模拟精度最高。  相似文献   

模式水平扩散参数化的数值分析与试验     

葛孝贞  雷孝恩 《气象科学》1997,17(3):213-220

为了研究整个对流层中水平扩散系数（Ｋｙ）随高度变化的参数化形式以及平流格式的数值扩攻对物质浓度分布的影响及二者对模式结果影响的相互关系,本文用“高分辨对流层物质交换模式”（ＥＭ３）对三咱不同ＫＹ参数化型能对行星边界层（ＰＢＬ）内受下垫面影响的高湍流ＰＢＬ以上整个对流层受水平风切变产生的切变湍流分层结构具有良好的描述能力;模式采用几乎无数值扩散二阶矩守恒的Ｐｒａｔｈｅｒ平流差分格式代替模式Ｓｍｏｌａ  相似文献   

Impact of Boundary-Layer Parameterisation Schemes on the Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon     

Swati Basu  Z. N. Begum  E. N> Rajagopal 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1998,86(3):469-485

The impact of two boundary-layer parameterisation schemes on the prediction of Indian monsoon systems by a global spectral model has been investigated. The turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme shows a positive impact on the prediction of some important synoptic features, including the genesis of monsoon lows, the tracking of monsoon depressions, and precipitation.  相似文献   

The numerical simulation on the PBL structure and its evolution over small-scale concave terrain     

Shi Yong  Jiang Weimei 《大气科学进展》1998,15(1):99-106

A high-resolution, nonhydrostatic, three-dimensional diagnostic PBL model over small-scale concave terrain was established in this paper. A two-dimensional prognostic model was developed based on the diagnostic model. The hydrostatic approximation was abandoned and the simple energy (E-ε) closure scheme was used in both mod-els. Using the two models, characteristics of PBL structure and its evolution were fully studied. The main characteris-tic of the PBL is the circulation, and it fairly affects the distribution of the pollutant in the pit.  相似文献