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1.
分位数映射法在RegCM4中国气温模拟订正中的应用   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
将一种分位数映射法RQUANT,应用到一个区域气候模式(RegCM4)所模拟中国气温的误差订正中。从气候平均态、年际变率、极端气候及农业气候等多方面,评估了该方法对日平均气温、日最高气温和日最低气温模拟的订正效果。结果表明,该订正方法对模式模拟的日平均、日最高和最低气温气候平均态的订正效果都非常明显,中国大部分地区的订正结果与观测的偏差在±0.5℃之间。在降低极端气温指数和农业气候相关指数的模拟误差方面也有显著的效果,但对气温年际变率的订正效果有限。结合以往对降水订正的评估分析,该方法对模式模拟结果有较好的订正效果,可以应用于区域气候模式的气候变化模拟预估中,为气候变化及相关影响评估研究提供更适用和可靠的数据。  相似文献   
2.
In operational data assimilation systems, observation-error covariance matrices are commonly assumed to be diagonal.However, inter-channel and spatial observation-error correlations are inevitable for satellite radiances. The observation errors of the Microwave Temperature Sounder(MWTS) and Microwave Humidity Sounder(MWHS) onboard the FengYun-3A(FY-3A) and FY-3B satellites are empirically assigned and considered to be uncorrelated when they are assimilated into the WRF model's Community Variational Data Assimilation System(WRFDA). To assimilate MWTS and MWHS measurements optimally, a good characterization of their observation errors is necessary. In this study, background and analysis residuals were used to diagnose the correlated observation-error characteristics of the MWTS and MWHS. It was found that the error standard deviations of the MWTS and MWHS were less than the values used in the WRFDA. MWTS had small inter-channel errors, while MWHS had significant inter-channel errors. The horizontal correlation length scales of MWTS and MWHS were about 120 and 60 km, respectively. A comparison between the diagnosis for instruments onboard the two satellites showed that the observation-error characteristics of the MWTS or MWHS were different when they were onboard different satellites. In addition, it was found that the error statistics were dependent on latitude and scan positions.The forecast experiments showed that using a modified thinning scheme based on diagnosed statistics can improve forecast accuracy.  相似文献   
3.
根据甘肃中部临夏州1971—2018年气温、降水,1980—2018年干旱资料,采用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法分析临夏地区气温、降水量分布特点、变化趋势和气温的突变性及对干旱影响。结果表明:1971—2018年,临夏年平均气温呈上升趋势,1997年是气温突变年,20世纪80年代初期较低,90年代后期开始进入暖期,特别是在1999—2018年,气温急剧增暖。冬季和春季变暖趋势大于夏季,秋季气温变化幅度较小,临夏气温以中部和北部增温幅度最大。降水呈减少趋势,20世纪70年代降水量偏多,80—90年代偏少。与历年值相比,1971—1980年降水量增加6.3%,1981—1990年减少0.5%,1991—2000年减少1.8%,2001—2010年增加2.1%,2011—2017年减少2.3%。夏季降水量呈略减少趋势,其它季节为增加趋势。春旱、秋旱略有增加,春末夏初及伏旱略有减少趋势。  相似文献   
4.
Competition and predation are the two major biotic interactions in zooplankton community. Various rotifer species exhibit polymorphism in lorica and spine morphology in the presence of predators and competitors, which effectively increases their defence competition capacity. This study compared life-history parameters between long-spined morph (LSM) and short-spined morph (SSM) of Keratella tropica at three temperatures. The results showed that both morphs showed significantly higher intrinsic rate of population increase at 25 °C than those at 20 °C and 30 °C. The intrinsic rate of population increase was significantly lower in LSM than SSM at 25 °C and 30 °C, and the net reproductive rate was significantly lower in LSM than SSM at 30 °C. These results suggested that K. tropica had cost on development of long spines, which, however, was dependent on temperature. Moreover, the competition outcome of LSM and SSM with Moina macrocopa were investigated at three densities of Scenedesmus obliquus (0.5 × 106, 1.0 × 106 and 2.0 × 106 cells/mL) and three initial densities of M. macrocopa (0.1, 0.3 and 0.9 ind./mL), revealing that both LSM and SSM populations decreased significantly at all tested algal densities and Moina levels. LSM showed higher population growth rate than SSM at lower algal density (0.5 × 106 cells/mL) and higher Moina densities (0.3 and 0.9 ind./mL), which suggested that LSM could be more effective to defend M. macrocopa. Three-way analysis of variance showed no significant effects of algal density on population growth rate of K. tropica, but interaction between algal density and M. macrocopa density significantly affected its population growth rate.  相似文献   
5.
基于RegCM4.4高分辨率区域气候模式数据和华中区域1986—2005年逐日气象观测资料,在对模式模拟性能检验的基础上,对中国华中区域未来不同时期、1.5℃和2℃温升阈值下气候变化进行预估。结果表明:模拟结果能较准确反映出区域气温、降水年内变化特征及空间分布特征;与观测值相比,气温模拟值偏低、降水模拟值偏大;与1986—2005年相比,未来RCP4.5温室气体排放情景下2020—2098年中国华中区域气温增幅为2.1℃,且以0.3℃/10 a的趋势增加,降水量无明显变化趋势;远期(2080—2098年)气温将上升2.88℃,降水将增加7.58%,均高于近期(2020—2035年)和中期(2046—2065年);1.5℃温升情景下华中区域气温上升1.22℃,降水增加1.93%;2℃温升情景下,华中区域气温上升1.36℃,降水增加3.57%。  相似文献   
6.
”Deep well, wide band, multi-component comprehensive observation” is the development direction of seismic observation. In order to promote the application and development of underground integrated observation system, key technologies, such as high temperature resistance sensor, interference isolation of sensor unit and miniaturization of instrument, need to be developed. Optic fiber sensors have the advantages of small size, passive nature, resistance to electromagnetic interference, being easy to long distance transmission and multi-parametric network observation, which are expected to provide new technology for the comprehensive observation of multi-parameter earthquakes in deep wells. This paper proposed a comprehensive observation technique of seismic wave, crustal deformation and temperature. An integrated borehole seismic sensor based on fiber Bragg grating resonators was designed for measuring three-component earthquake, three-component crustal deformation and temperature signal. A new technique for simultaneous measurement of multi-parameters of temperature and strain of fiber based on effective cavity length was presented. The technique of high precision optical fiber signal demodulation based on single side band sweep laser and the design of multi-parameter integrated optical fiber probe were introduced. The resolution of strain and temperature measurement of the fiber multi-parameter sensor system reached 4.7 × 10-10 and 6×10-5 , respectively. A comprehensive multi-parameter earthquake observation experiment was carried out at the seismic station. The results show that the integrated optical fiber multi-parameter seismic observation system can simultaneously record the earth tide signal, seismic wave signal and environmental temperature disturbance, and has good anti-environmental interference ability and long-term stability, which is expected to provide a new technique for crustal deformation observation.  相似文献   
7.
江西省霾天气气候特征及其与气象条件的关系   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
利用1980-2011年江西83个常规站和南昌、赣州2个探空站的观测资料,对江西霾的气候特征及其与气象条件的关系进行了分析。结果表明:近32 a来江西霾日总体呈上升趋势;霾日的季节、年际和年代际变化明显,秋冬季多(12月最多)春夏季少(7月最少),4 a左右和8 a左右的年际变化周期显著,年代际变化主要为15 a左右的变化周期;江西霾日空间分布不均,呈现中北部多,南部及山区少的分布形势。霾与地面风速、大气逆温、海平面气压、降雨量和相对湿度密切相关,低风速、大气逆温、高气压、高湿度和少降雨有利于霾天气的发生,反之,高风速、低气压、低湿度和多降雨不利于霾天气的发生。  相似文献   
8.
介绍了地球内部温度异常与地震孕育和发生的关系以及地温异常在地震预测中的应用,分析了现有的地温测量传感技术,提出了一种用于大地震临震前兆监测的深层地温传感器,描述了基于该传感器进行大地震临震前兆监测的方法和系统架构,使得结合其他手段进行地震三要素预测成为可能。  相似文献   
9.
经对地电阻率ρs观测值的分析研究,发现观测数据因受本身台址电性条件的限制,观测深度较浅,受降雨等气象因素的影响明显.运用合肥地电阻率北南、北西向2007-2013年观测资料月均值与温度、降水、地下水位进行相关分析,采用多元线性回归方法对地电阻率进行校正,以反映地电阻率的真实变化,达到提取地震异常的目的.  相似文献   
10.
Daily meteorological data are the critical inputs for distributed hydrological and ecological models. This study modified mountain microclimate simulation model (MTCLIM) with the data from 19 weather stations, and compared and validated two methods (the MTCLIM and the modified MTCLIM) in the Qilian Mountains of Northwest China to estimate daily temperature (i.e., maximum temperature, minimum temperature) and precipitation at six weather stations from i January 2000 to 31December 2009. The algorithm of temperature in modified MTCLIM was improved by constructing the daily linear regression relationship between temperature and elevation, aspect and location information. There are two steps to modify the MTCLIM to predict daily precipitation: firstly, the linear regression relationship was built between annual average precipitation and elevation, location, and vegetation index; secondly, the distance weight for measuring the contribution of each weather station on target point was improved by average wind direction during the rainy season. Several regression analysis and goodness-of-fit indices (i.e., Pearson's correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and modelingefficiency) were used to validate these estimated values. The result showed that the modified MTCLIM had a better performance than the MTCLIM. Therefore, the modified MTCLIM was used to map daily meteorological data in the study area from 2000 to 2009. These results were validated using weather stations with short time data and the predicted accuracy was acceptable. The meteorological data mapped could become inputs for distributed hydrological and ecological models applied in the Qilian Mountains.  相似文献   
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