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1.
作为全球煤电装机规模最大且仍在扩张的国家,中国需要慎重评估兑现《巴黎协定》温室气体减排承诺带来的潜在煤电资产搁浅问题。研究运用“上下交互”的碳锁定曲线模型,识别不同产能扩张情景下(无新增、新增200、300和400 GW)的搁浅煤电机组。首先,从“自上而下”角度匡算中国煤电行业2℃温升目标下的碳配额。然后,从“自下而上”角度,根据高精度的燃煤电站信息核算煤电累积CO2排放量。最后基于“上下交互”模式筛选出搁浅燃煤电站,在此基础上运用现金流量法估算其潜在的搁浅价值,并对其关键因素进行敏感性分析。结果表明,在无新增情景下,煤电搁浅资产规模约为0.38万亿元;若继续增加200~400 GW煤电装机,则搁浅价值将较无新增情景增加3.7~8.2倍。因此,建议“十四五”期间应树立煤电规模峰值意识,严控煤电新增产能,避免错过最佳减排时机。  相似文献   
2.
Xu  Yue  Shen  Zehao  Ying  Lingxiao  Zang  Runguo  Jiang  Youxu 《地理学报(英文版)》2019,29(7):1142-1158
Journal of Geographical Sciences - Understanding biogeographic patterns and the mechanisms underlying them has been a main issue in macroecology and biogeography, and has implications for...  相似文献   
3.
为探究重金属在红树林沉积物及红树植物中的分布累积及迁移规律,选取了徐闻南山镇红树林为研究对象,通过测定红树林沉积物及红树植物不同部位(根、茎、叶)的重金属质量分数,运用富集因子、生物富集系数、转移系数及相关性分析等方法进行分析。结果表明:1)红树林沉积物重金属质量分数表现为铬(Cr)>锌(Zn)>镍(Ni)>铜(Cu)>铅(Pb)>砷(As)>汞(Hg)>镉(Cd),为中等变异程度;除了镍(Ni)元素外,其余7种重金属未超过国家一级标准,除了铅(Pb)元素外,其余7种重金属均超过广东省土壤环境背景值,说明研究区沉积物中重金属具有一定的积累效应。2)沉积物中砷(As)、铜(Cu)、锌(Zn)、汞(Hg)、镍(Ni)、铬(Cr)富集因子值均>1.5,说明受到轻微人为活动影响;各站位镍(Ni)富集因子值均>5,结合研究区背景,反映了镍(Ni)受到自然和人为输入的共同影响。3)白骨壤体内重金属主要集中在根部,而红海榄体内重金属在根茎叶中分布相对均匀。白骨壤根茎叶部位的大多数重金属质量分数远高于红海榄,说明白骨壤对重金属的吸附能力比红海榄强。汞(Hg)集中分布在植物的叶片部位,且与其他重金属之间相关性不明显;推测汞(Hg)主要通过叶片吸收进入植物体内,与交通运输污染有关。4)不同红树植物对不同重金属富集能力各异,白骨壤对重金属的富集能力表现为:镉(Cd)>砷(As)>铜(Cu)>锌(Zn)>汞(Hg)>铅(Pb)>镍(Ni)>铬(Cr),红海榄表现为:镉(Cd)>铜(Cu)>汞(Hg)>锌(Zn)>铅(Pb)>砷(As)>镍(Ni)>铬(Cr)。白骨壤和红海榄对汞(Hg)的运移能力都较强;红海榄对镉(Cd)的富集能力和转运能力都较强,而白骨壤对镉(Cd)富集能力较强,转运能力却较弱,这说明红树植物对重金属元素的富集能力与转运能力不存在正比关系。  相似文献   
4.
Devonian fossil localities are summarised for coastal southeastern Australia, including both marine invertebrates representing a major late Frasnian (Late Devonian) transgression, and plant remains of Middle–Late Devonian age in associated non-marine strata. Lycopsid plant specimens (Leptophloeum) from near Majors Creek, NSW, first documented by Edgeworth David and E. F. Pittman in association with marine fossils to demonstrate a Late Devonian age, are illustrated for the first time. Lycopsid plants of presumed Middle Devonian age are illustrated from three new localities: Yowrie River inland from Cape Dromedary, Tuross River northwest of Narooma and Charlies Forest Road northeast of Braidwood. The Yowrie River occurrence (in float) indicates probable Middle Devonian strata upstream that are not shown on published maps. The Tuross River occurrence is in sheared and folded strata previously mapped as Ordovician, and the Braidwood occurrence demonstrates Devonian black shales adjacent to previously mapped Ordovician. Evidence supporting alternative thrust or simple fold interpretations for the Budawang Synclinorium is discussed, and relevant Ordovician fossil localities are listed.  相似文献   
5.
The run‐off volume altered by the construction of hydropower plants affects ecohydrological processes in catchments. Although the impacts of large hydropower plants have been well documented in the literature, few studies have been conducted on the impacts of small cascaded hydropower plants (SCHPs). To evaluate the impacts of SCHPs on river flow, we chose a representative basin affected by hydropower projects and, to a lesser degree, by other human activities, that is, the Qiuxiang River basin in Southern China. The observed river discharge and climate data during the period of 1958–2016 were investigated. The datasets were divided into a low‐impact period and a high‐impact period based on the number of SCHPs and the capacities of the reservoirs. The daily river discharge alteration was assessed by applying the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration. To separate the impact of the SCHPs on the local river discharge from that of climate‐related precipitation, the back‐propagation neural network was used to simulate the monthly average river discharge process. An abnormal result was found: Unlike large reservoirs in large watersheds, the SCHPs regulated the flows during the flood season but were not able to mitigate the droughts during the dry season due to their limited storage and the commonly occurring inappropriate interregulations of the SCHPs. The SCHPs also reduced the annual average river discharge in the research basin. The contribution of the SCHPs to the river discharge changes was 85.37%, much higher than the contributions of climate change (13.43%) and other human activities (1.20%). The results demonstrated that the impacts of the SCHPs were different from those of large dams and reservoirs that regulate floods and relieve droughts. It is necessary to raise the awareness of the impacts of these river barriers.  相似文献   
6.
7.
针对BP (Back Propagation)神经网络模型预测卫星钟差中权值和阈值的最优化问题, 提出了基于遗传算法优化的BP神经网络卫星钟差短期预报模型, 给出了遗传算法优化BP神经网络的基本思想、具体方法和实施步骤. 为验证该优化模型的有效性和可行性, 利用北斗卫星导航系统(BeiDou navigation satellite system, BDS)卫星钟差数据进行钟差预报精度分析, 并将其与灰色模型(GM(1,1))和BP神经网络模型预报的结果比较分析. 结果表明: 该模型在短期钟差预报中具有较好的精度, 优于GM(1,1)模型和BP神经网络模型.  相似文献   
8.
The nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in March 2011 has led the nuclear community to consider seismic isolation for new large light water and small modular reactors to withstand the effects of beyond design basis loadings, including extreme earthquakes. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a research project that will quantify the response of low damping rubber (LDR) and lead rubber (LR) bearings under loadings associated with extreme earthquakes. Under design basis loadings, the response of an elastomeric bearing is not expected to deviate from well‐established numerical models, and bearings are not expected to experience net tension. However, under extended or beyond design basis shaking, elastomer shear strains may exceed 300% in regions of high seismic hazard, bearings may experience net tension, the compression and tension stiffness will be affected by isolator lateral displacement, and the properties of the lead core in LR bearings will degrade in the short‐term because of substantial energy dissipation. New mathematical models of LDR and LR bearings are presented for the analysis of base isolated structures under design and beyond design basis shaking, explicitly considering both the effects of lateral displacement and cyclic vertical and horizontal loading. These mathematical models extend the available formulations in shear and compression. Phenomenological models are presented to describe the behavior of elastomeric isolation bearings in tension, including the cavitation and post‐cavitation behavior. The elastic mechanical properties make use of the two‐spring model. Strength degradation of LR bearing under cyclic shear loading due to heating of lead core is incorporated. The bilinear area reduction method is used to include variation of critical buckling load capacity with lateral displacement. The numerical models are coded in OpenSees, and the results of numerical analysis are compared with test data. The effect of different parameters on the response is investigated through a series of analyses. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
9.
泥石流源区典型草本植物根系抗拉试验   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
植被对于泥石流源区的生态修复和物源稳定具有重要意义,其中植物根系的抗拉力学特性是影响植物护坡的主要因素之一。为了探究泥石流源区植物根系的抗拉特性,以都江堰市锅圈岩泥石流源区为研究区,在野外调查的基础上,通过重要值计算确定了源区典型草本植物并进行抗拉强度试验。研究表明,锅圈岩泥石流源区主要分布有寒芒、节节草等对恶劣环境适应性强的乡土植物,它们的根系平均分布深度在30 cm以内;根系抗拉力与根径呈幂函数正相关关系,抗拉力随根径的增大而增大。当根径0.50 mm时,抗拉强度与根径也表现出幂函数关系;当根径0.50 mm时,部分植物根系的抗拉强度值波动较大。不同植物根系的平均抗拉强度从大到小依次为铁杆蒿(106.24 MPa)、节节草(非节点处,30.79 MPa)、草地早熟禾(28.69 MPa)、小飞蓬(20.20 MPa)、多头苦荬(18.77 MPa)、寒芒(老根,14.87 MPa)、节节草(节点处,12.67 MPa)、寒芒(新根,8.29 MPa)。泥石流源区草本植物的根系抗拉力学特性良好,对稳固浅层土体和泥石流物源有积极作用。  相似文献   
10.
沉水植物作为水生态系统的重要组成成分,在水生态系统物质循环和能量流动中发挥着重要作用,其覆盖度和生物量是评价湖泊等浅水水体系统稳定性的关键参数随着高效和无损伤监测的回声探测仪在沉水植物盖度监测中的应用,其精确度算法也受到了越来越多的关注本研究以成功恢复沉水植物的浅水湖泊杭州西湖为研究对象,利用BioSonics便携型回声探测仪——MX采集沉水植物回声样本同时结合人工样方设置,采集与回声探测对应位点的沉水植物样本,验证回声探测结果的精确性通过建立回归模型分析回声探测得到的沉水植物体积百分比(PVI)与人工样方获得的对应平均鲜重关系,结果表明二者具有较好的相关性分别采用普通克里金法、反距离权重法、径向基函数法3种插值方法对同一季节的不同湖泊和同一湖泊的不同季节未采集区域沉水植物的盖度数据进行插值分析,并对插值结果进行交叉验证,以确定方法的精确度交叉验证结果表明,插值精确度反距离权重法径向基函数法普通克里金法研究结果为回声探测与插值分析方法结合在大尺度浅水水体中沉水植物监测应用提供了技术支撑.  相似文献   
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