中国省域尺度17部门资本存量的时空特征分析     

刘丽  李宁  张正涛  冯介玲  陈曦  白扣  黄承芳 《地理科学进展》2019,38(4):546-555

随着灾害强度、频率以及承灾体暴露的增加,自然灾害造成的损失日益严重。资本存量作为承灾体的经济暴露指标之一,是灾害损失评估的前提和基础。针对目前中国缺乏省域尺度长时间序列的经济部门分类的资本存量数据基础,论文通过永续盘存法,建立了2003—2015年中国大陆31省17部门的资本存量数据库,并分析其时空特征。结果显示：① 全国总资本存量与灾害直接损失的年际变化均呈增加趋势。省域尺度上,通过相关性分析显示,在99%置信度水平上,两者呈显著正相关(r=0.3)。② 时间上,各省17部门资本存量基本也呈增加趋势,但增速不同。在各部门增速最快的省份中,黑龙江省的居民服务、修理和其他服务业增速最快,增长约454.3倍;其次是青海省的租赁和商务服务业(398.3倍)、江苏省的金融业(295.1倍)、安徽省的科学研究和技术服务业(125.1倍)等。③ 空间上,2015年各省17部门资本存量最多的前4个部门分别是房地产业,工业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,水利、环境和公共设施管理业,占比均在60%以上;且这4个部门资本存量暴露最多的省份是江苏省和广东省。该结果有助于从时空角度了解各省各部门资本存量暴露情况,为各省灾害风险管理者的防灾减灾工作提供重要的参考价值。  相似文献   

Otolith microchemistry indicates regional phylopatry in the larval phase of an amphidromous fish (Gobiomorphus hubbsi)     

Manna L. Warburton  Gerard P. Closs 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2018,52(3):398-408

Knowledge of stock structure is key for the effective management of any fish species. Amphidromous fish, which live and spawn in freshwater but spend a pelagic larval period at sea, have typically been assumed to disperse widely during their larval phase, resulting in populations being sourced from a single unstructured larval pool. We used otolith microchemical analysis to examine the stock structure of bluegill bully (Gobiomorphus hubbsi), a declining amphidromous eleotrid endemic to New Zealand, along the west coast of South Island, New Zealand. Some drainages – even those in close proximity (c. 20?km) – were readily distinguishable based on otolith trace element concentrations, while little structure was evident between other geographically disparate locations. These results indicate that, at least in some cases, locally retained larvae, rather than a single unstructured larval pool, dominates recruitment. Management of bluegill bully and other amphidromous species must therefore consider the possibility of regionally distinct populations.  相似文献   

利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼     

汪金涛  陈新军  Kevin W. Staples  陈勇 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(2):94-101

西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼，Illex argentinus，巴塔哥尼亚南部群体是重要的经济种类。海洋环境因子在柔鱼资源分布中起着重要的作用。本研究利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估2000-2010年的滑柔鱼的资源量。假设海洋环境因子（滑柔鱼产卵场最适宜海表温度占比）影响动态产量模型的参数K，DIC值表明在正态分布和均匀分布下均是基于环境因子的评估模型优于基本的动态产量模型。阿根廷滑柔鱼的最大可持续产量（MSY）在351600吨到685 100吨之间，资源生物量在1322400吨到1 803 000吨之间，其捕捞死亡系数均小于F_0.1和F_MSY，资源处在良好状态，没有遭受过度捕捞。本研究为应用环境因子在柔鱼类的资源评估与管理提中供了科学的参考方法。  相似文献   

印度尼西亚北苏拉威西红树林生态系统碳库研究     

陈顺洋  陈彬  SASTROSUWONDO Pramudji  DHARMAWAN I Wayan Ek  欧丹云  尹希杰  俞炜炜  陈光程 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(12):85-91

近年来的研究指出红树林在海岸带碳固定和碳储存方面发挥着重要的作用。尽管印度尼西亚的红树林面积在全球占很大的比重，对于该地区红树林的有机碳储量和土壤有机碳来源的认识仍有限。本研究调查了印度尼西亚北苏拉威西海洋型的Wori红树林中生态系统有机碳储量及其空间分布特征，以及土壤有机碳的来源，以期加深该地区红树林“蓝碳”功能的认识。研究结果显示，Wori红树林0-50cm深度土壤中有机碳储量为15.4 kg/m²，占生态系统碳储量的主要部分（65%）。红树植物生物量和生态系统碳储量分别为8.3 kg/m²和23.7 kg/m²。土壤有机碳储量在不同离岸距离的采样站位中未表现出显著的空间分布差异，而生物量碳储量则在外滩最高。¹³C稳定同位素分析结果表明红树林土壤中蓄积的有机碳主要来源于红树林有机质，而潮水中的悬浮有机质和红树林外缘的海草并不构成红树林土壤有机碳的重要来源，它们的贡献者都低于20%。研究结果进一步证实了热带地区海洋型红树林湿地在碳储存以及红树植物对碳固定方面的重要性。  相似文献   

Population abundance and seasonal migration patterns indicated by commercial catch-per-unit-effort of hakes (Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus) in the northern Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem     

JN Kathena  D Yemane  N Bahamon  T Jansen 《African Journal of Marine Science》2018,40(2):197-209

We developed generalised additive models (GAMs) to estimate standardised time-series of population abundance indices for assessment purposes and to infer ecological and behavioural information on northern Benguela hakes, Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus, using haul-by-haul commercial trawl catch-rate data as proxies for hake densities. The modelling indicated that individual ship identifiers should be used rather than general vessel characteristics, such as vessel size. The final models explained 79% and 68% of the variability in the commercial catch rates of M. capensis and M. paradoxus, respectively. The spatial density patterns were consistent and confirmed existing knowledge about these species in the northern Benguela system. Furthermore, seasonal migration patterns were described for the first time and were found to correspond to the known spawning areas and seasons for M. capensis and M. paradoxus. Spatial density patterns were validated using the geostatistical modelling results of fisheries-independent trawl survey data. Improved understanding of the relationships between fleet dynamics and fish movement can be achieved by taking into consideration the present catch-rate model and spatial and seasonal distribution maps. We conclude that the yearly standardised CPUE time-series are problematic as proxies for total stock abundance because of spatial coverage issues. Consequently, such CPUE data should not be used for stock-size assessments and fisheries advice concerning northern Benguela hakes until this is solved. We generally recommend the exclusion of standardised CPUE time-series from stock assessments when important and changing parts of the stock distribution cannot be targeted by the fishery, such as due to closed areas or seasons.  相似文献   

Wall-to-wall spatial prediction of growing stock volume based on Italian National Forest Inventory plots and remotely sensed data     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2020

Spatial predictions of forest variables are required for supporting modern national and sub-national forest planning strategies, especially in the framework of a climate change scenario. Nowadays methods for constructing wall-to-wall maps and calculating small-area estimates of forest parameters are becoming essential components of most advanced National Forest Inventory (NFI) programs. Such methods are based on the assumption of a relationship between the forest variables and predictor variables that are available for the entire forest area. Many commonly used predictors are based on data obtained from active or passive remote sensing technologies. Italy has almost 40% of its land area covered by forests. Because of the great diversity of Italian forests with respect to composition, structure and management and underlying climatic, morphological and soil conditions, a relevant question is whether methods successfully used in less complex temperate and boreal forests may be applied successfully at country level in Italy.For a study area of more than 48,657 km² in central Italy of which 43% is covered by forest, the study presents the results of a test regarding wall-to-wall, spatially explicit estimation of forest growing stock volume (GSV) based on field measurement of 1350 plots during the last Italian NFI. For the same area, we used potential predictor variables that are available across the whole of Italy: cloud-free mosaics of multispectral optical satellite imagery (Landsat 5 TM), microwave sensor data (JAXA PALSAR), a canopy height model (CHM) from satellite LiDAR, and auxiliary variables from climate, temperature and precipitation maps, soil maps, and a digital terrain model.Two non-parametric (random forests and k-NN) and two parametric (multiple linear regression and geographically weighted regression) prediction methods were tested to produce wall-to-wall map of growing stock volume at 23-m resolution. Pixel level predictions were used to produce small-area, province-level model-assisted estimates. The performances of all the methods were compared in terms of percent root mean-square error using a leave-one-out procedure and an independent dataset was used for validation. Results were comparable to those available for other ecological regions using similar predictors, but random forests produced the most accurate results with a pixel level R² = 0.69 and RMSE_% = 37.2% against the independent validation dataset. Model-assisted estimates were more precise than the original design-based estimates provided by the NFI.  相似文献   

中国铝物质流历史变化分析和再生铝资源利用研究     

刘艳飞  李颖  林子芃  刘仟策  韩中奎 《地球学报》2023,44(2):333-340

本文采用物质流分析(Material Flow Analysis, MFA)的方法, 构建了铝全生命周期动态物质流分析框架, 自上而下的追踪了1949—2021年中国铝的流量、存量和供需情况。结果表明: 1)1949—2021年中国铝土矿铝物质累计流入量5.86亿t, 国内开采与进口各占一半左右。实际铝物质累计消费量3.74亿t。生命周期内铝损失严重, 铝物质损失量2.39亿t。2)2021年人均铝物质社会存量208.9 kg/人, 与同经济发展时期的北美、日本基本一致。3)1990年以来中国再生铝产量快速增长, 累计0.77亿t, 以国内生产为主, 占比76.7%。随着含铝产品到达寿命及未来铝需求量的持续走高, 将迎来含铝产品的报废时代。建议从全生命周期的角度出发, 减少铝在各个环节的损失量; 合理布局再生铝产业, 提高再生铝的利用, 优化铝供应结构, 促进铝工业低碳转型, 支撑“双碳”目标的实现。  相似文献   

海洋环境因子对澳洲鲐亲体补充量关系的影响——基于贝叶斯模型平均法的研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

张畅  陈新军 《海洋学报》2019,41(2):99-106

澳洲鲐（Scomber australasicus）是西北太平洋重要的中上层经济鱼类，生命周期相对较短，资源量受补充量影响明显，了解澳洲鲐太平洋群系补充量状况对掌握其资源量及确保其可持续利用具有重要的意义。本文利用产卵场1（30°~32°N，130°~132°E）海表面温度（sea surface temperature，SST1）、产卵场2（34°~35°N，138°~141°E）海表面温度（SST2）、索饵场（35°~45°N，140°~160°E）海表面温度（SST3）、潮位差（tidal range，TR）、太平洋年代际涛动（Pacific decadal oscillation，PDO）和亲体量（spawning stock biomass，SSB）6个影响因子任意组合与补充量构建多个模型，运用贝叶斯模型平均法（Bayesian model averaging，BMA）分析各个环境因子对资源补充量的解释能力，并预测其补充量的变化。结果表明，SSB对补充量具有最长期且稳定的解释能力，其次是SST3，PDO、TR、SST2、SST1也对补充量模型具有一定的解释能力。SST3是环境因子中影响最大的因子，可能是由于补充群体在索饵场内生活时间较长，索饵场温度对仔鱼或鱼卵的生长存活有较大的影响。研究认为，基于BMA的组合预报综合考虑了各个模型的优势，优于单一模型，可用于澳洲鲐资源补充量的预测。  相似文献   

长山群岛海洋渔业资源的平均营养级变化特征     

孙才志  曹威威  肖春柳 《海洋通报》2019,38(1):87-95

根据长山群岛 1965-2016 年渔业统计资料，分析长山群岛海域主要捕捞渔获物产量、平均营养级 （Mean trophic level， MTL）、渔业均衡指数 （Fishing in balance index，FiB） 年际变化，探讨其海洋渔业资源利用状况，并利用小波分析方法研究52年来渔获物 MTL 周期变化特征。研究表明： （1） 长山群岛捕捞产量、MTL 和 FiB 指数呈阶段性变化； （2） 长山群岛渔业资源开发经历初期开发、扩张捕捞、过度捕捞、资源破坏等四个阶段，渔业资源环境正在逐渐恶化；（3） 受人类捕捞活动影响，MTL 在 15~19 年和 24~34 年两种时间尺度下呈周期波动，30 年为第一主周期，17 年为第二主周期。长山群岛渔业资源破坏日益严重，未来几年平均营养级将呈下降趋势。为防止渔业资源进一步衰退，应加强捕捞活动管理力度，落实海洋渔业资源保护制度；完善预警机制，构建海洋渔业资源监测系统；同时应积极调整长山群岛渔业产业结构，提高资源产出效率.  相似文献   

Analysis of Stock Market Development and CO2 Emissions on OECD Countries via an Empirical Model     

Zhigang Li  Wei‐Ting Chen  I‐Chia Chang  Joe‐Ming Lee 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2020,48(4)

Accompanying economic growth, CO₂ emissions have polluted the natural environment worldwide. This study highlights the special problems with stock market development and CO₂ emissions in 25 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries during 1971–2007 to trace the trend of CO₂ emissions while countries grow their economies. A panel‐data model is applied to analyze the relationships between stock market (SM) development, energy consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), and CO₂ emissions in 25 OECD countries. Low‐GDP countries show different results from high‐GDP countries in the trends of SM development and CO₂ emissions, and dynamic effects occur in SM development and CO₂ emissions under various GDP conditions. There is a negative relationship between SM development and CO₂ emissions if countries enjoy high economic growth, which means that these countries avoid CO₂ emissions through SM development. However, a positive relationship is found between SM development and CO₂ emissions if countries experience low economic growth, which means that SM development does not show the boycott‐effect relationship with CO₂ emissions when countries experience low levels of economic development. This study shows a correlation between SM development and CO₂ emissions among OECD countries.  相似文献