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1.
Climate change is likely to manifest in river flow changes across the globe, which could have wide-ranging consequences for society and the natural environment. A number of previous studies used the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) to investigate the potential impacts on river flows in Britain, but these projections were recently updated by the release of UKCP18, thus there is a need to update flow studies. Here, the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) projections are applied using a national-scale grid-based hydrological model, to investigate potential future changes in seasonal mean river flows across Great Britain. Analysis of hydrological model performance using baseline climate model data (1980–2010) shows relatively good agreement with use of observation-based data, particularly after application of a monthly precipitation bias-correction. Analysis of seasonal mean flow changes for two future time-slices (2020–2050 and 2050–2080) suggests large decreases in summer flows across the country (median −45% by 2050–2080), but possible increases in winter flows (median 9% by 2050–2080), especially in the north and west. Information on the potential range of flow changes using the latest projections is necessary to develop appropriate adaptation strategies, and comparisons with previous projections can help update existing plans, although such comparisons are often not straightforward.  相似文献   
2.
1961—2017年中国华东区域高空温度变化特征   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
利用中国华东六省一市13个探空站1961—2017年高空温度数据,对850 hPa、500 hPa、200 hPa高空温度的时间变化特征和空间变化特征进行分析,结果表明:1961—2017年中国华东区域对流层中下层增温趋势明显,向上增温趋势减弱,对流层顶增温趋势有所增强。850 hPa、500 hPa温度的年代际变化均呈现出先降低后升高的趋势,而200 hPa温度的年代际变化则呈现持续升高的趋势。秋、冬季在各个层次上均为显著的增温趋势,冬季的增温趋势明显大于其他季节,500 hPa春季和200 hPa夏季有微弱的降温趋势。不同层次年平均气温的空间分布均有明显的南北差异,且随着高度的增加,南北平均温差先增大后减小。850 hPa、500 hPa年平均温度的空间变化趋势一定程度上呈现出华东沿海地区增温趋势大于内陆的特征,200 hPa则呈现华东南部的增温趋势大于北部的特征。850 hPa各季节呈现出中国华东沿海地区增温、内陆增温趋势不如沿海地区或内陆呈现降温趋势,500 hPa的春季和200 hPa的夏、秋季则呈现出中国华东南部地区增温、北部地区降温的趋势。  相似文献   
3.
The vertical position of the streambed–water boundary fluctuates during the course of sediment transport episodes, due to particle entrainment/deposition and bedform migration, amongst other hydraulic and bedload mechanisms. These vertical oscillations define a topmost stratum of the streambed (i.e. the ‘active layer or active depth’), which usually represents the main source of particles entrained during long and high-magnitude bedload transport episodes. The vertical extent of this layer is hence a capital parameter for the quantification of bedload volumes and a major driver of stream ecology in gravel-bed rivers. However, knowledge on how the active depth scales to flow strength and the nature of the different controls on the relation between the flow strength and the active depth is still scarce. In this paper we present a meta-analysis over active depth data coming from ~130 transport episodes extracted from a series of published field studies. We also incorporate our own field data for the rivers Ebro and Muga (unpublished), both in the Iberian Peninsula. We explore the database searching for the influence of flow strength, grain size, streambed mobility and channel morphology on the vertical extent of the active layer. A multivariate statistical analysis (stepwise multiple regression) confirms that the set of selected variables explains a significant amount of variance in the compiled variables. The analysis shows a positive scaling between active depth and flow strength. We have also identified some links between the active depth and particle travel distances. However, these relations are also largely modulated by other fluvial drivers, such as the grain size of the bed surface and the dominant channel macro-bedforms, with remarkable differences between plane-bed, step-pool and riffle-pool channels. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
4.
As a traditional method for palaeoseismic studies, trenching can be combined with dating techniques to identify palaeoseismic events and the earthquake recurrence interval. However, when using trenches to study palaeoearthquakes, factors such as the active tectonic background of the earthquake‐caused structure, the lithology on both sides of the fault, the geomorphology location and type and the samples and methods for dating will affect the location of the trench. Thus, trenches should be carefully selected and used to identify the impact of ancient earthquakes. The results have substantial uncertainties and limitations. In recent years, scholars have made considerable progress in using other methods to reveal the palaeoseismic information of faults. Moreover, the history of fault activity may have been recorded in the lacustrine sediment adjacent to the fault. Hasuhai Lake is adjacent to the middle segment of the Daqingshan piedmont fault in Inner Mongolia. Since the Holocene, the region has experienced a temperate continental semi‐arid climate with little interference, and Hasuhai Lake and peripheral waters present weak hydrodynamic conditions that provide an ideal location for the study of palaeoseismic records in lacustrine sediments. Sediment samples and samples for dating were collected from three trenches excavated on the periphery of the Hasuhai Lake. Their variations in grain size and magnetic susceptibility revealed that wind and flowing water jointly produced the sedimentary conditions of Hasuhai sediments. The 14C dating results and variations in the grain size distribution, grain size components and magnetic susceptibility of sediments caused by seismic events obtained in this study were compared with those caused by a series of palaeoseismic events at the middle segment of the Daqingshan piedmont fault reported by previous studies using trenches, knickpoints and palaeosol records. The results identified seven palaeoseismic events recorded near Hasuhai Lake since 12,000 years. The combined use of lacustrine sediment variation characteristics and dating techniques is an effective method for studying palaeoseismic events.  相似文献   
5.
Channel bifurcations can be found in river network systems from high gradient gravel-bed rivers to fine-grained low gradient deltas. In these systems, bifurcations often evolve asymmetrically such that one downstream channel silts up and the other deepens and, in most cases, they eventually avulse. Past analytical and numerical studies showed that symmetric bifurcations are unstable in high and low Shields stress conditions resulting in asymmetric bifurcations and avulsion, while they can be stable in the mid-Shields range, but this range is smaller for larger width-to-depth ratio. Here, using a one-dimensional (1D) numerical model, we show that effects of sediment grain size and of channel slope are much larger than expected for low-gradient systems when a sediment transport relation is used that separates between bedload and suspended load transport. We found that the range of Shields stress conditions with unstable symmetric bifurcations expanded for lower channel slopes and for finer sediment. In high sediment mobility, suspended load increasingly dominates the sediment transport, which increases the sediment transport nonlinearity and lowers the relative influence of the stabilizing transverse bedslope-driven flux. Contrary to previous works, we found another stable symmetric solution in high Shields stress, but this only occurs in the systems with small width-to-depth ratio. This indicates that suspended load-dominated bifurcations of lowland rivers are more likely to develop into highly asymmetric channels than previously thought. This explains the tendency of channel avulsion observed in many systems.  相似文献   
6.
三峡工程运用后坝下游河道泥沙输移变化规律   总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0  
郭小虎  渠庚  刘亚  刘心愿 《湖泊科学》2020,32(2):564-572
三峡工程蓄水后"清水"下泄,坝下游河段将会长期处于严重不饱和状态,水流含沙量沿程恢复将会引起坝下游长距离冲刷,本文根据三峡工程蓄水前、后的实测资料分析了坝下游河道泥沙输移变化规律,探索不同粒径组沙量沿程恢复对河床冲刷的影响,得到以下结论:在蓄水初期d≤0.031 mm沙量恢复主要受河床补给与江湖入汇共同的影响,随着水库下泄该粒径组沙量递减,使得各站该粒径组年均输沙量均远小于蓄水前的水平,沙量恢复仍主要受河床补给与江湖入汇的影响,这是造成坝下游河道发生长距离冲刷的主要原因之一;在蓄水初期0.031 mmd≤0.125 mm沙量恢复主要受河床补给的影响,但江湖入汇的影响较大,随着河床补给量逐渐减少,各站该粒径组年均输沙量均小于蓄水前的水平,沙量恢复仍主要受河床补给的影响,江湖入汇的影响逐渐减小,这也是坝下游河道发生长距离冲刷的主要原因之一; d0.125 mm沙量恢复主要受河床补给的影响,蓄水初期该粒径组沙量在宜昌监利河段沿程恢复速率较快,且在监利站达到蓄水前的水平,随着时间推移,在宜昌监利河段沿程恢复且速率仍较快,在监利站达到最大值,其数值逐渐小于蓄水前的水平,这是造成坝下游河道冲刷重点集中在宜昌监利河段的主要原因.  相似文献   
7.
利用不同形状冰晶的散射特性,获得了非球形冰晶云的94/220 GHz测云雷达双波长比,探讨了非球形冰晶云的双波长比与云内微物理参数的关系,分析了衰减前后的星载雷达反射率因子及双波长比的垂直廓线。结果表明:(1)双波长比可以反映小到0.1 mm中值尺度的冰粒子,对粒子总数、谱的形状参数不敏感,对粒子大小、形状、云衰减较敏感。(2)雷达灵敏度一定时,星载雷达可测云厚与雷达波长、冰含水量(IWC)的垂直分布、云厚及衰减有关;没有进行衰减订正时,双波长比和衰减有关,冰含水量越大,波长越短,衰减越大,双波长比最大值与可探测云厚有关。两部雷达可探测冰含水量为0.001—0.1 g/m3、厚2 km的冰云;当云厚5 km、冰含水量垂直分布在0.001—0.2 g/m3时,云厚的94%基本可以被220 GHz云雷达探测到。(3)如果两部雷达气象方程中用水的介电因子,测量回波强度应进行介电因子的订正后再计算双波长比。   相似文献   
8.
沉积环境分析是古地理重建的核心内容,黔北地区寒武系明心寺组沉积环境研究存在较大争议,以致对中上扬子地区明心寺组沉积期古地理格局的认识不能统一。选取寒武系明心寺组发育齐全、出露良好的黔北镇远地区三丘田剖面为研究对象,通过野外剖面观察、室内薄片鉴定及碎屑岩粒度分析等方法对三丘田剖面明心寺组岩石学特征、沉积构造、沉积演化序列、沉积相类型进行了详细分析。结果表明:黔北镇远地区三丘田剖面寒武系明心寺组上段发育大套的石英粉-细砂岩,沉积构造以低角度冲洗交错层理为主,碎屑颗粒的成分和结构成熟度均较高;三丘田剖面明心寺组上段砂岩以双次跳跃组分为主,悬浮组分含量较少,纵向剖面自下而上显示为浅水陆棚→临滨→前滨→后滨演化序列,呈典型的陆棚相向滨岸相变化。综上所述,黔北镇远地区三丘田剖面寒武系明心寺组上段的沉积相为滨岸相。黔北镇远地区明心寺组滨岸相沉积的出现,指示了黔北地区区域上重新认识明心寺组沉积相的必要性,将直接影响对黔北地区乃至中上扬子地区寒武纪古地理格局及其大地构造背景的认识。  相似文献   
9.
The objective of this research was to acquire a raindrop size distribution (DSDs) retrieved from C-band polarimetric radar observations scheme for the first time in south China.An observation period of the precipitation process was selected,and the shape-slope (μ-Λ) relationship of this region was statistically analyzed using the raindrop sample observations from the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) at Xinfeng Station,Guangdong Province.Simulated data of the C-band polarimetric radar reflectivity Z_(HH)and differential reflectivity Z_(DR)were obtained through scattering simulation.The simulation data were combined with DSD fitting to determine the Z_(DR)-Λand log_(10)(Z_(HH)/N_0)-Λrelationships.Using Xinfeng C-band polarimetric radar observations Z_(DR)and Z_(HH),the raindrop Gamma size distribution parametersμ,Λ,and N_0were retrieved.A scheme for using C-band polarimetric radar to retrieve the DSDs was developed.This research revealed that during precipitation process,the DSDs obtained using the C-band polarimetric radar retrieval scheme are similar to the 2DVD observations,the precipitation characteristics of rainfall intensity (R),mass-weighted mean diameter (D_m) and intercept parameter (N_w) with time obtained by radar retrieval are basically consistent with the observational results of the 2DVD.This scheme establishes the relationship between the observations of the C-band polarimetric radar and the physical quantities of the numerical model.This method not only can test the prediction of the model data assimilation system on the convective scale and determine error sources,but also can improve the microphysical precipitation processes analysis and radar quantitative precipitation estimation.The present research will facilitate radar data assimilation in the future.  相似文献   
10.
北极海冰冰盖自20世纪以来经历了前所未有的缩减,这使得北极海冰异常对大气环流的反馈作用日益显现。尽管目前的气候模式模拟北极海冰均为减少的趋势,但各模式间仍然存在较大的分散性。为了评估模式对于北极海冰变化及其气候效应的模拟能力,我们将海冰线性趋势和年际异常两者结合起来构造了一种合理的衡量指标。我们还强调巴伦支与卡拉海的重要性,因为前人研究证明此区域海冰异常是近年来影响大尺度大气环流变异的关键因子。根据我们设定的标准,CMIP5模式对海冰的模拟可被归为三种类型。这三组多模式集合平均之间存在巨大的差异,验证了这种分组方法的合理性。此外,我们还进一步探讨了造成模式海冰模拟能力差别的潜在物理因子。结果表明模式所采用的臭氧资料集对海冰模拟能力有显著的影响。  相似文献   
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