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1.
Numerical simulation of agricultural sediment and pesticide runoff: RZWQM and PRZM comparison 
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下载免费PDF全文 Agricultural sediment and pesticide runoff is a widespread ecological and human health concern. Numerical simulation models, such as Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) and Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), have been increasingly used to quantify off‐site agricultural pollutant movement. However, RZWQM has been criticized for its inability to simulate sedimentation processes. The recent incorporation of the sedimentation module of Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural Management Systems has enabled RZWQM to simulate sediment and sediment‐associated pesticides. This study compares the sediment and pesticide transport simulation performance of the newly released RZWQM and PRZM using runoff data from 2 alfalfa fields in Davis, California. A composite metric (based on coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, index of agreement, and percent bias) was developed and employed to ensure robust, comprehensive assessment of model performance. Results showed that surface water runoff was predicted reasonably well (absolute percent bias <31%) by RZWQM and PRZM after adjusting important hydrologic parameters. Even after calibration, underestimation bias (?89% ≤ PBIAS ≤ ?36%) for sediment yield was observed in both models. This might be attributed to PRZM's incorrect distribution of input water and uncertainty in RZWQM's runoff erosivity coefficient. Moreover, the underestimation of sediment might be less if the origin of measured sediment was considered. Chlorpyrifos losses were simulated with reasonable accuracy especially for Field A (absolute PBIAS ≤ 22%), whereas diuron losses were underestimated to a great extent (?98% ≤ PBIAS ≤ ?65%) in both models. This could be attributed to the underprediction of herbicide concentration in the top soil due to the limitations of the instantaneous equilibrium sorption model as well as the high runoff potential of herbicide formulated as water‐dispersible granules. RZWQM and PRZM partitioned pesticides into the water and sediment phases similarly. According to model predictions, the majority of pesticide loads were carried via the water phase. On the basis of this study, both RZWQM and PRZM performed well in predicting runoff that carried highly adsorptive pesticides on an event basis, although the more physically based RZWQM is recommended when field‐measured soil hydraulic properties are available. 相似文献
2.
Integrating isolated and riparian wetland modules in the PHYSITEL/HYDROTEL modelling platform: model performance and diagnosis 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Maxime Fossey Alain N. Rousseau Fatima Bensalma Stéphane Savary Alain Royer 《水文研究》2015,29(22):4683-4702
Mathematical modelling is a well‐accepted framework to evaluate the effects of wetlands on stream flow and watershed hydrology in general. Although the integration of wetland modules into a distributed hydrological model represents a cost‐effective way to make this assessment, the added value brought by landscape‐specific modules to a model's ability to replicate basic hydrograph characteristics remains unclear. The objectives of this paper were the following: (i) to present the adaptation of PHYSITEL (a geographic information system) to parameterize isolated and riparian wetlands; (ii) to describe the integration of specific isolated wetland and riparian wetland modules into HYDROTEL, a distributed hydrological model; and (iii) to evaluate the performance of the updated modelling platform with respect to the capacity of replicating various hydrograph characteristics. To achieve this, two sets of simulations were performed (with and without wetland modules), and the added value was assessed at three river segments of the Becancour River watershed, Quebec, Canada, using six general goodness‐of‐fit indicators and 14 water flow criteria. A sensitivity analysis of the wetland module parameters was performed to characterize their impact on stream flows of the modelled watershed. Results of this study indicate the following: (i) integration of specific wetland modules can slightly increase the capacity of HYDROTEL to replicate basic hydrograph characteristics; and (ii) the updated modelling platform allows for the explicit assessment of the impact of wetlands (e.g. typology and location) on watershed hydrology. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Based on a 30-year Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project（AMIP） simulation using IAP AGCM4.0, the relationship between the East Asian subtropical westerly jet（EASWJ） and summer precipitation over East Asia has been investigated, and compared with observation. It was found the meridional displacement of the EASWJ has a closer relationship with the precipitation over East Asia both from model simulation and observation, with an anomalous southward shift of EASWJ being conducive to rainfall over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley（YHRV）, and an anomalous northward shift resulting in less rainfall over the YHRV. However, the simulated precipitation anomalies were found to be weaker than observed from the composite analysis, and this would be related to the weakly reproduced mid-upper-level convergence in the mid-high latitudes and ascending motion in the lower latitudes. 相似文献
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受全球气候变化与人类活动影响,径流序列愈发呈现出非稳态与非线性特征,为降低由此而引发的预报误差,充分发挥不同模型对提高径流预测精度的优势,针对传统径流预报模型的单一性,以干旱区典型内陆河玛纳斯河为例,采用经验模态分解(EMD)提取径流序列中具有物理含义的信号,得到不同时间尺度的多个固有模态函数(IMF)及1个趋势项,利用 ARIMA模型与GRNN模型分别对不同时间尺度的IMF分量进行模拟,分析径流未来变化趋势。运用多元线性回归法、Spearman相关系数法、平均影响值法筛选大气环流因子作为神经网络模型的输入项,根据子序列的局部频率特点构建组合模型。最后将各IMF分量的预测结果重构,得到径流的最终预测值。单一评价指标无法全面评价模型精度,本文通过构建TOPSIS评价模型对径流预测模型进行定量评估,客观评价模型优度。结果表明:EMD分解能有效提取径流序列中隐含的多时间尺度信号,由趋势项可知玛纳斯河径流量总体呈上升趋势;EMD分解可提高ARIMA模型25%的合格率,但对于高频率分量IMF1、IMF2、IMF3,ARIMA模型的相对误差达到70%以上,预测结果不理想;经过筛选预报因子可有效提高GRNN模型精度,其中MIV法筛选的预报因子最适合玛纳斯河,与EMD-ARIMA组合后的GRNN模型的合格率最高,TOPSIS模型得分也最高。预测结果可作为水资源规划与调度的科学依据,建模思路也可为优化径流预测模型提供新途径。 相似文献
5.
大量的观测资料表明在对流层高层和平流层低层,大气动能谱在大尺度范围(800 km以上)与波数呈现出-3的斜率关系,而过渡到中尺度范围(400 km以下)二者呈现出-5/3的斜率关系。模式预报结果能否展现大气动能谱的这种斜率转折特征已经成为模式评估的有效方法。本文采用GRAPES全球中期数值预报模式2013年5月的预报结果,计算了模式一维和二维动能谱,并分析了二维谱的旋转分量与辐散分量、平均分量与扰动分量的关系。结果表明,GRAPES模式的一维谱和二维谱结果均能较好地表现出动能谱的斜率转折特征,但该模式动能谱在中尺度范围的斜率绝对值明显比观测结果和其它模式结果偏大;二维谱的旋转分量和辐散分量、平均分量和扰动分量在总动能谱中的比重关系及其随高度的变化均与文献结果较为一致。总之,GRAPES模式整体上较好地再现了大气动能谱的各种特征,但是可能由于模式分辨率和耗散作用的影响,模式对大气中尺度波动的描述还不够充分。 相似文献
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基于全球降水气候态计划(GPCP)的降水资料和美国伍兹霍尔海洋研究所(WHOI)的客观分析海气通量(OAFlux)的蒸发数据,对CMIP5的13个耦合模式的淡水通量历史模拟结果进行评估。结果表明:模式能够模拟出淡水通量的气候态空间分布,但普遍存在双热带辐合带(ITCZ)现象,热带海域是模式模拟不确定性最大的区域。模式能较好模拟出纬向平均的淡水通量的分布特征,但量值较实测偏小,且由于模式对1月10°S附近淡水通量的模拟过低,导致年平均的赤道和10°S之间的淡水通量模拟存在明显的偏差。季节尺度上,模式对北半球淡水通量的变化特征有很好的模拟能力,但对南半球的模拟能力不足。年际尺度上,模式普遍能够刻画ENSO引起的淡水通量在太平洋中部同西太平洋以及印尼贯通流反相变化的空间分布特征,但是时间特征模拟很差。从各个方面评估模式的历史模拟结果,多模式集合的结果都要优于单个模式的结果。全球变暖背景下,未来淡水通量变化最显著的区域位于热带和亚热带区域。原本蒸发(降水)占主导的海域,蒸发(降水)更强。不同气候情景下,淡水通量变化的空间形态没有显著变化,但RCP8.5气候情景下模拟的淡水通量变化幅度及模式间变化的一致性均强于RCP4.5的结果。 相似文献
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基于观测和再分析资料；利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征；但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海；集合平均与观测差别比较明显。在年际尺度上；与观测数据对比；模式模拟海温与Niño3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势；从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明；ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这5个模式结果对中国近海海温未来的变化进行了预估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下；未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势；最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃；净热通量变化和平流变化共同促进了东海升温。 相似文献
8.
An Assessment on the Performance of IPCC AR4 Climate Models in Simulating Interdecadal Variations of the East Asian Summer Monsoon 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Observations from several data centers together with a categorization method are used to evaluate the IPCC AR4 （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Fourth Assessment Report） climate models＇ performance in simulating the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and monsoon circulation in East Asia. Out of 19 models under examination, 9 models can relatively well reproduce the 1979-1999 mean June-July-August （JJA） precipitation in East Asia, but only 3 models （Category-1 models） can capture the interdecadal variation of precipitation in East Asia. These 3 models are： GFDL-CM2.0, MIROC3.2 （hires）, and MIROC3.2 （medres）, among which the GFDL-CM2.0 gives the best performance. The reason for the poor performance of most models in simulating the East Asian summer monsoon interdecadal variation lies in that the key dynamic and thermal-dynamic mechanisms behind the East Asian monsoon change are missed by the models, e.g., the large-scale tropospheric cooling and drying over East Asia. In contrast, the Category-1 models relatively well reproduce the variations in vertical velocity and water vapor over East Asia and thus show a better agreement with observations in simulating the pattern of ＂wet south and dry north＂ in China in the past 20 years.
It is assessed that a single model＇s performance in simulating a particular variable has great impacts on the ensemble results. More realistic outputs can be obtained when the multi-model ensemble is carried out using a suite of well-performing models for a specific variable, rather than using all available models. This indicates that although a multi-model ensemble is in general better than a single model, the best ensemble mean cannot be achieved without looking into each member model＇s performance. 相似文献
It is assessed that a single model＇s performance in simulating a particular variable has great impacts on the ensemble results. More realistic outputs can be obtained when the multi-model ensemble is carried out using a suite of well-performing models for a specific variable, rather than using all available models. This indicates that although a multi-model ensemble is in general better than a single model, the best ensemble mean cannot be achieved without looking into each member model＇s performance. 相似文献
9.
An evaluation of approaches for modelling hydrological processes in high‐elevation,glacierized Andean watersheds 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 We use two hydrological models of varying complexity to study the Juncal River Basin in the Central Andes of Chile with the aim to understand the degree of conceptualization and the spatial structure that are needed to model present and future streamflows. We use a conceptual semi‐distributed model based on elevation bands [Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP)], frequently used for water management, and a physically oriented, fully distributed model [Topographic Kinematic Wave Approximation and Integration ETH Zurich (TOPKAPI‐ETH)] developed for research purposes mainly. We evaluate the ability of the two models to reproduce the key hydrological processes in the basin with emphasis on snow accumulation and melt, streamflow and the relationships between internal processes. Both models are capable of reproducing observed runoff and the evolution of Moderate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer snow cover adequately. In spite of WEAP's simple and conceptual approach for modelling snowmelt and its lack of glacier representation and snow gravitational redistribution as well as a proper routing algorithm, this model can reproduce historical data with a similar goodness of fit as the more complex TOPKAPI‐ETH. We show that the performance of both models can be improved by using measured precipitation gradients of higher temporal resolution. In contrast to the good performance of the conceptual model for the present climate, however, we demonstrate that the simplifications in WEAP lead to error compensation, which results in different predictions in simulated melt and runoff for a potentially warmer future climate. TOPKAPI‐ETH, using a more physical representation of processes, depends less on calibration and thus is less subject to a compensation of errors through different model components. Our results show that data obtained locally in ad hoc short‐term field campaigns are needed to complement data extrapolated from long‐term records for simulating changes in the water cycle of high‐elevation catchments but that these data can only be efficiently used by a model applying a spatially distributed physical representation of hydrological processes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
BCC气候模式对中国近50a极端气候事件的模拟评估 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
利用中国区域437站1958—2005年逐日气温和降水资料,评估了国家气候中心（BeijingCli-mateCenter,BCC）气候模式对中国近50a极端气候事件空间分布、时间演变等方面的模拟能力。结果表明：1）模式对极端温度和降水多年平均的空间分布具有一定的模拟能力,但尚存在系统性的偏差。暖昼日数的模拟优于冷夜日数,全年冷夜日数的模拟优于冬季和夏季的模拟,而全年和夏季暖昼日数的模拟优于冬季的模拟。极端降水频次的模拟优于极端降水量的模拟;夏季和全年的模拟优于冬季的模拟。夏季极端降水频次的模拟较好,但冬季的模拟在长江中下游和华南偏小、北方偏大,而全年的模拟在长江下游及南部沿海地区系统性偏大;夏季和全年极端降水量的模拟系统性偏低,而冬季在北方偏高、南方偏低。2）模式较好地模拟出了夏季和全年冷夜日数的全国较为一致的减少趋势,再现东北和东南沿海地区冬季冷夜日数的减少趋势,但模拟的趋势较实测偏弱。模式对暖昼日数长期趋势的模拟效果较理想,较好地反映出了大部分地区暖昼事件发生频率显著增加的特征,但冬季的模拟尚有待改进。模式较好地模拟出了夏季和全年极端降水频次的长期趋势,较好地刻画了极端降水频次＂南增北减＂的特征;模式对冬季极端降水频次的变化趋势几乎无模拟能力。同样,模式也较好地模拟出了极端降水量夏季南增北减的分布形势和冬季的总体增加趋势,但对全年的模拟不理想。3）模式能较好地模拟出冷夜日数和暖昼日数异常变化的主要空间型,对EOF第一模态的时间演变特征具有一定模拟能力;但模式对第二模态时间演变特征的刻画能力较差。模式对极端降水指标的年际变化具有一定的模拟能力,对部分区域极端降水事件的年际变化具有较好的模拟能力;但模拟能力表现出了明显的区域性差异,部分区域极端降水年际变化的模拟结果与实况甚至相反,模式对极端降水年际变化的模拟能力还有待提高。所得结果可为BCC气候模式的改进及极端气候模拟、预估提供一定的参考。 相似文献