Simulation of urban expansion via integrating artificial neural network with Markov chain – cellular automata     

Tingting Xu  Jay Gao  Giovanni Coco 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(10):1960-1983

Accurate simulations and predictions of urban expansion are critical to manage urbanization and explicitly address the spatiotemporal trends and distributions of urban expansion. Cellular Automata integrated Markov Chain (CA-MC) is one of the most frequently used models for this purpose. However, the urban suitability index (USI) map produced from the conventional CA-MC is either affected by human bias or cannot accurately reflect the possible nonlinear relations between driving factors and urban expansion. To overcome these limitations, a machine learning model (Artificial Neural Network, ANN) was integrated with CA-MC instead of the commonly used Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Logistic Regression (LR) CA-MC models. The ANN was optimized to create the USI map and then integrated with CA-MC to spatially allocate urban expansion cells. The validated results of kappa and fuzzy kappa simulation indicate that ANN-CA-MC outperformed other variously coupled CA-MC modelling approaches. Based on the ANN-CA-MC model, the urban area in South Auckland is predicted to expand to 1340.55 ha in 2026 at the expense of non-urban areas, mostly grassland and open-bare land. Most of the future expansion will take place within the planned new urban growth zone.  相似文献   

Reliability of mooring lines and piles for a permanently manned vessel in a tropical cyclone environment     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

The factors of safety for stationkeeping systems in current standards (ISO, API) are not derived or validated using reliability analyses. As the oil and gas exploration and production is breaking new boundaries, deploying new floating systems and moving into regions with harsher environments, it is of paramount importance to understand what level of reliability these new marine structures are achieving. This paper presents a reliability analysis of the mooring system of a Floating LNG (FLNG) vessel permanently moored and permanently manned offshore North West Australia in a tropical cyclone environment. The reliability analysis addresses both the mooring chain and the pile foundation. The analysis accounts for the long term characteristics of the environment, including the short term variability, in response to a given sea state and the variability and uncertainty in strength of the mooring chain and the pile. The stationkeeping system was analysed using detailed time domain simulations, capturing system non-linearities and low frequency oscillations as well as wave frequency responses and, thereby, reducing modelling uncertainties to a minimum.It is found that for the conditions modelled, neither the chain nor the pile meet a target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum using the factors of safety commonly used in design following current ISO and API standards. New factors of safety are proposed to achieve this target reliability. For the pile design, one complicating factor is that current design standards do not explicitly define the exceedance probability that should be associated with the characteristic value of the undrained shear strength to be used in the design. It is demonstrated that the required factor of safety is crucially dependent on the definition of this characteristic value and on the level and the type of uncertainty in the soil strength profile. A recommendation is made regarding the definition of this characteristic value and the associated factor of safety. Furthermore, it is found that designing the mooring system to an environmental condition with a return period of 10,000 yr (as an Abnormal Limit State event), and setting the factor of safety to unity, meets the target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum for the pile, if the characteristic undrained shear strength is a lower bound, defined in this paper by the 10th percentile value. For the chain however, this target reliability is not achieved.  相似文献   

碎冰条件下单点系泊船舶动态响应特性研究     

杨佳东  吕海宁  王晋 《海洋工程》2019,37(2):29-39

为了研究不同单点系泊位置对极地系泊船舶在来冰角度改变时动态响应的影响,运用离散元方法(DEM),计算了船舶在60%密集度下,冰速为1.0 m/s、冰厚为1 m时不同角度的船冰阻力,结合系泊分析软件二次开发功能,计算分析系泊船舶在不同来冰角度和不同系泊位置下受上述冰情影响下的响应。通过对模拟结果与试验结果的对比,认为离散元方法(DEM)的数值模拟结果与试验结果吻合较好;单点系泊位置为距船头L/4时,系泊船舶能以最快速、最稳定的方式对来冰方向的变化做出响应。  相似文献   

Constitutive modelling of fine-grained gassy soil: A composite approach     

Zhiwei Gao  Yi Hong  Lizhong Wang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(9):1350-1368

Fine-grained marine sediments containing large undissolved gas bubbles are widely distributed around the world. Presence of the bubbles could degrade the undrained shear strength (s_u ) of the soil, when the gas pressure u_g is relatively high as compared with the effective stress in the saturated soil matrix. Meanwhile, the addition of bubbles may also increase s_u when the difference between u_g and pore water pressure u_w becomes smaller than the water entry value, causing partial water drainage from the saturated matrix into the bubbles (bubble flooding) during globally undrained shearing. A new constitutive model for describing the two competing effects on the stress-strain relationship of fine-grained gassy soil is proposed within the framework of critical state soil mechanics. The gassy soil is considered as a three-phase composite material with compressible cavities, which allows water entry from the saturated matrix. Bubble flooding is modelled by introducing an additional positive volumetric strain increment of the saturated clay matrix, which is dependent on the difference between pore gas and pore water pressure based on experimental observations. A modified hardening law based on that of the modified Cam clay model is employed, which in conjunction with the expression for bubble flooding, can describe both the detrimental and beneficial effects of gas bubbles on soil strength and plastic hardening in shear. Only two extra parameters in addition to those in the modified Cam clay model are used. It is shown that the key features of the stress-strain relationship of three fine-grained gassy soils can be reproduced satisfactorily.  相似文献   

圆筒型FPSO优化设计与水动力性能分析     

赵治民  李焱  唐友刚  何鑫  童波 《海洋工程》2020,38(1):11-19

针对圆筒型海上储油装置FPSO垂荡运动性能较差、无法安装干式井口的问题,设计了带延伸筒体与矩形阻尼结构的圆筒型FPSO,根据延伸筒体与矩形阻尼结构是否通海分为两种型式。建立水动力计算模型,比较分析不同延伸筒体和阻尼结构型式对FPSO水动力性能的影响。针对南海作业海域,设计了悬链式系泊系统,基于JONSWAP波浪谱对FPSO的运动进行时域预报,并对系泊系统进行校核。分析结果表明:通海型FPSO垂荡固有周期显著提升,可以错开南海百年一遇谱峰周期,通海型FPSO满足钻井、安装干式井口的运动响应要求,系泊系统系缆张力满足规范要求。  相似文献   

中国城市价值链功能分工及其影响因素     

盛科荣  王丽萍  孙威 《地理研究》2020,39(12):2763-2778

价值链的空间重组正在深刻的改变着城市体系的经济景观,建立在价值链分工基础上的城市功能结构的研究已经成为经济地理学的重要课题。将中国上市公司500强企业网络划分为公司总部、商务服务、研究开发、传统制造、现代制造、物流仓储和批发零售七种类型功能区块,研究了中国城市价值链功能分工及其影响因素。结果发现：沿着价值链的功能分工已经成为中国城市体系经济景观的显著特征,功能多样化城市和功能专业化城市并存于中国城市体系,东部地区和城市密集地区的城市在价值链分工中占据了更好的地位;中国城市按照价值链中的优势功能可以划分为九种类型,少数城市转变为承载公司总部、研究开发、商务服务等多样化功能的高等级中心城市,而大量中小城市则转变为传统制造专业化基地;市场潜力、关键资源、区位条件、营商环境等城市属性特征是城市功能分工的重要影响因素,城市资源、区位可达性等属性特征的增强将提高城市成为总部基地、商务中心和研究基地的概率,而降低城市成为传统制造基地的概率。  相似文献   

海底地震动作用下近海桥梁地震响应研究          下载免费PDF全文

王德斌  刘驭  张蓬勃  陈宝魁  李敏  张皓 《世界地震工程》2019,35(3):063-72

以某近海大桥引桥段连续梁桥为工程背景，建立考虑海底地震动特性和腐蚀效应的近海桥梁地震反应分析模型。采用增量动力分析方法分析腐蚀效应以及海底地震动作用对近海桥梁地震响应的影响。研究结果表明:腐蚀效应与海底地震动作用都会不同程度影响近海桥梁结构的抗震性能。其中:腐蚀效应会增大近海桥梁的破坏指标，降低最大墩底剪力和弯矩值，从而降低桥梁的抗震性能；海底地震动作用会增大近海桥梁的破坏指标及最大墩底剪力、弯矩值；在2种因素耦合作用下，桥梁的抗震性能将会进一步降低。  相似文献   

穿越走滑断层海底管道局部屈曲研究及应变响应预测          下载免费PDF全文

李杨    余建星    余杨    韩梦雪    李牧之    于佳晖   《世界地震工程》2019,35(4):105-113

海洋地震频繁且海底土体环境复杂，当地震导致断层土体发生永久变形后，穿越断层的海底埋地管道也将受迫发生变形。为确定变形后的管道能否正常工作，需根据实际工况对其进行应变响应预测。首先通过有限元计算软件ABAQUS建立管道与走滑断层的三维实体模型，模拟管-土间的接触作用并通过等效边界方法修正模型，得到管道局部屈曲破坏形式及应变分布情况。然后，通过调整有限元模型参数对断层交角、管道工作内压、管道径厚比对管道极限塑性应变的影响进行敏感性分析，定性分析不同敏感性因素对穿越走滑断层海底管道应变响应的影响。最后，在数值模拟数据的基础上通过MATLAB软件利用基于遗传算法优化的BP神经网络实现对管道应变响应的精确预测。结果表明:穿越走滑断层管道在发生局部屈曲时，可根据轴向压缩应变突变现象确定管道局部屈曲时对应的断层位移，并且断层交角、管道工作内压和管道径厚比都会对跨断层管道应变响应产生影响。  相似文献   

基于并行计算的海洋平台谱分析疲劳筛选技术研究     

李洛东  刘成名  梁园华 《海洋工程》2018,36(5):56-64

为了得到海洋平台疲劳失效风险最大的焊接区域,提出了以有限元网格单元应力为基础的谱分析筛选方法,并开发了程序。程序采用并行计算架构,单次完成数万个单元的累积损伤度/疲劳寿命计算,并通过有限元软件以云图方式显示疲劳寿命。采用该程序计算双浮筒半潜式平台的疲劳寿命。结果表明,该型平台疲劳失效风险较高的区域为立柱与上壳体下浮体连接对角线转角区域、浮筒中纵舱壁与立柱连接区域。并行计算方法的引入,大大缩减疲劳损伤度计算的分析时间,采用22核心的CPU,时间缩短为原来的1/18.5,17小时完成全平台外壳单元谱分析计算。  相似文献   

风机基础TLP平台在波浪中运动性能的CFD数值分析     

安筱婷  赵伟文  万德成 《海洋工程》2020,38(5):35-49

随着海上风能的开发向深水发展，支撑风机的载体平台越来越受到关注。在经济性与安全性、稳定性的多重要求下，张力腿平台（TLP）在海洋风能资源的开发中体现出了重要地位。采用基于开源平台OpenFOAM开发的计算流体动力学（CFD）水动力学求解器naoe-FOAM-SJTU对一座处于中等水深下的风机基础水下TLP（STLP）的运动响应进行了数值模拟与研究。文中使用弹簧锚链模型模拟STLP的垂向系泊锁链系统，模拟该平台在不同波浪环境下的运动响应情况。首先将STLP单自由度自由衰减CFD模拟结果与已有全耦合时域分析结果进行对比，验证了naoe-FOAM-SJTU求解器及使用弹簧模型模拟STLP系泊系统的准确性与可靠性。随后在考虑非线性波浪载荷的情况下研究极端海况下与一般作业海况下STLP的运动响应情况，计算工况中的风机基础所受弯矩及锚链受力情况，并详细展示流场、速度场信息，分析高阶波浪成分、不同海况等条件对于STLP运动性能的影响。研究结果表明，TLP在中等水深中具有良好的运动性能，naoe-FOAM-SJTU求解器可以有效模拟水中生产平台在波浪环境下的水动力问题，并可以对整个流场进行可视化展示与分析。  相似文献