毛乌素沙地东南缘全新世气候不稳定性     

李想  苏志珠  马义娟  张彩霞  柳苗苗 《中国沙漠》2020,40(2):109-117

毛乌素沙地处于中国季风区的西北边缘,对气候变化敏感,是古气候演化和古环境变迁研究的理想场所。全新世气温回暖期,气候整体稳定但存在暖湿冷干的次级波动,不同类型沉积相组成的地层序列记录了全新世千年、百年尺度的气候不稳定性。对毛乌素沙地不同沉积序列的研究表明:(1)毛乌素沙地东南缘的沙漠/黄土边界带DLT、NB剖面粒度及Rb/Sr比值可作为气候变化的代用指标。>63 μm砂含量增加,Rb/Sr比值降低,揭示东亚冬季风增强,风成砂堆积,风沙活动加剧,气候干冷;反之,东亚夏季风增强,降水增多,风化成壤程度加大,气候暖湿。(2)毛乌素沙地东南缘沙漠/黄土边界带及低洼沟谷区年代概率密度函数的分析显示,全新世早期~8\^5 ka BP风成砂堆积,风沙活动加剧,气候表现为干冷;全新世中期8\^5 ka~3\^0 ka BP地势较高处古土壤广泛发育,地势低洼处发育湖沼相/泥炭层,但在6.0 ka BP左右存在气候转冷过程;全新世晚期3\^0 ka BP以来气候波动频繁。(3)毛乌素沙地气候变化与北大西洋冰筏冷事件、董哥洞石笋、季风边缘区湖泊、东部沙地等记录具有可对比性和相对一致性,反映出全新世千年和百年尺度上的气候变化主要受全球变化的影响,这对预测和模拟未来气候变化具有借鉴意义。  相似文献   

Reliability analysis of the induced damage for single-hole rock blasting     

Mahdi Shadab Far  Yuan Wang  Yousif A. H. Dallo 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2019,13(1):82-98

Rock explosion has always been a complex problem because neither rock characteristics nor explosion waves could be accurately estimated. As such, this imposes a high uncertainty on deterministic methodologies available for damage prediction. In this paper, by defining two damage zones around the blast hole, including crushed and cracked zones, a first-order reliability analysis (FORM) was adopted to address this issue. For this purpose, FORM was used in a double-loop algorithm, where the inner loop was responsible for converging the FORM, and the outer loop was assigned to feed the inner loop with new cases. Using such nested-loop algorithm, the probability of exceedance was calculated for any desired damage zone radius. The maximum effect of the involved parameters on the failure probability induced around the blast hole was additionally studied using a parametric reliability analysis. The results showed that the radii for crushed and cracked zones are limited to 0.5 and 4.2?m, respectively, so that the probability of going beyond these limits is less than 1%. Moreover, the analyses of decoupled explosions showed that increasing the gap between the explosion charge and wall of the borehole could severely reduce the failure probability; however, the maximum effect of decoupling ratio occurs in the small range of radii between 0.3?mm and 2.35?m.  相似文献   

海上风电升压站平台高程确定标准的合理性研究     

潘晓春 《海洋技术学报》2019,38(6):83-88

为保证海上风电升压电站建设的经济合理与安全可靠,合理确定海上风电升压电站平台高程十分必要。文中从波浪与潮位的遭遇组合、最大波高取值与现行相关标准的比较、最大波峰高度计算的合理性等方面,全面分析了确定海上风电升压站平台高程各组成项取值标准的合理性,研究认为现行标准明显偏高。建议海上升压站平台底部高程按"100年一遇极端高水位+重现期50年波列累积频率1%的最大波峰高度+安全超高"确定。结合工程实例计算分析,按本文建议可使海上升压站平台高程明显降低,从而节省工程造价,还可减轻升压站工程对周边风机的遮蔽影响,以达到多发电量的效果。  相似文献   

基于森林模型参数先验知识估算高分辨率叶面积指数   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张静宇  王锦地  石月婵 《遥感学报》2020,24(11):1342-1352

目前，估算高分辨率叶面积指数LAI（Leaf Area Index）的常用方法是采用大量地面测量数据和遥感数据建立统计模型，再用统计模型估算LAI。然而，与农田地面测量实验相比，森林地面测量实验获取的观测数据更加有限，这使得基于统计模型的森林高分辨率LAI的估算精度低，难以满足应用需求。为此，本文提出一种基于森林模型参数先验知识、使用森林研究区少量的LAI地面测量数据和归一化植被指数NDVI数据估算森林高分辨率LAI的方法。首先，获取全球20个森林实验区的LAI地面测量数据和NDVI数据，建立LAI-NDVI统计模型并提取森林模型参数的先验知识。然后，以一个新的森林站点Concepción作为研究区，将该研究区的数据分为建模数据和验证数据两个部分。使用研究区有限的建模数据对森林模型参数先验知识进行本地化校正得到优化模型，优化模型用于估算森林高分辨率LAI，使用验证数据评价LAI的估算精度。同时，选取了Camerons站点、Gnangara站点、Hirsikangas站点评价本文方法的LAI估算精度。使用地面测量LAI验证基于森林模型参数先验知识估算高分辨率LAI的结果精度，经验证4个森林站点的均方根误差分别为0.6680，0.4449，0.2863，0.5755。研究结果表明：在仅有少量观测数据时，采用本方法能有效地提高森林高分辨率LAI的估算精度。因此，本方法可为森林高分辨率LAI的遥感估算提供参考。  相似文献   

A new standardized Palmer drought index for hydro‐meteorological use          下载免费PDF全文

Mingwei Ma  Liliang Ren  Fei Yuan  Shanhu Jiang  Yi Liu  Hao Kong  Luyan Gong 《水文研究》2014,28(23):5645-5661

Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Risk Analysis of Breakwater Caisson Under Wave Attack Using Load Surface Approximation     

Dong Hyawn KIM 《中国海洋工程》2014,(6):739-748

A new load surface based approach to the reliability analysis of caisson-type breakwater is proposed. Uncertainties of the horizontal and vertical wave loads acting on breakwater are considered by using the so-called load surfaces, which can be estimated as functions of wave height, water level, and so on. Then, the first-order reliability method（FORM） can be applied to determine the probability of failure under the wave action. In this way, the reliability analysis of breakwaters with uncertainties both in wave height and in water level is possible. Moreover, the uncertainty in wave breaking can be taken into account by considering a random variable for wave height ratio which relates the significant wave height to the maximum wave height. The proposed approach is applied numerically to the reliability analysis of caisson breakwater under wave attack that may undergo partial or full wave breaking.  相似文献   

A sequential sparse polynomial chaos expansion using Bayesian regression for geotechnical reliability estimations     

Qiujing Pan  Xingru Qu  Leilei Liu  Daniel Dias 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(6):874-889

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been widely employed to estimate failure probabilities in geotechnical engineering. However, PCEs suffer from two deficiencies: (a) PCE coefficients are solved by the least-square minimization method which easily causes overfitting issues; (b) building a high order PCE is often computationally expensive. In order to overcome the aforementioned drawbacks, the Bayesian regression technique is employed to evaluate PCE coefficients, which not only provides a sparse solution but also avoids overfitting. With the aid of the predictive means and variances given by Bayesian analysis, a learning function is proposed to sequentially select the most informative samples that are critical to build a PCE. This sequential learning scheme can highly enhance the computational efficiency of PCEs. Besides, importance sampling (IS) is incorporated into the sequential learning (SL)-PCEs to deal with geotechnical problems with small failure probabilities. The proposed method of SL-PCE-IS is applied to three illustrative examples, which shows that the improved PCE method is more effective and efficient than the common PCEs method, leading to accurate estimations of small failure probabilities using fewer training samples.  相似文献   

特定场地下土工构筑物的几何可靠性分析     

吴兴征  王瑞凯  辛军霞 《岩土力学》2020,41(6):2070-2080

针对特定场地下土工构筑物的正常使用极限状态，采用近年发展的几何可靠性方法计算了多种构筑物的可靠度指标。考虑同一场地下的钻孔灌注桩、抗浮锚杆和CFG桩单桩加载变形测试曲线的离散性，各曲线回归参数呈现差异并可作为随机变量，进而探讨了各曲线回归参数间的相关性及联合分布特性。基于这些回归参数的联合发散概率密度等值线，即随机变量刚好达到极限承载能力状态，该几何可靠性算法可在随机变量的原始空间求得土工构筑物的可靠度指标。通过比对该几何可靠度指标与常规的一次可靠性算法成果，验证了该几何可靠性计算技术的可行性。计算表明，几何可靠性评价模型实施简便，易于被工程技术人员接受。  相似文献   

双轴压缩条件下颗粒材料中力链的演化     

付龙龙  周顺华  田志尧  田哲侃 《岩土力学》2019,40(6):2427-2434

针对无黏性颗粒材料，开展了柔性边界双轴压缩数值试验，分析了不同围压下力链的数量、方向概率等随轴向应变的变化。研究结果表明：不断加载使得游离的高应力颗粒有所减少，荷载更多的被力链承担；统计意义上，力链最大长度为9个颗粒。轴向±30o范围内力链概率随应变的发展与偏应力一致，而与其邻接的[40o，60o]和[120o，140o]两个方向上的力链概率随应变的发展与偏应力相反；双轴试样剪切破坏时有单剪切带和双剪切带两种模式，当[40o，60o]和[120o，140o]两个角度区间的力链概率有较大差异时，剪切带出现在力链较少的角度区间；当这两个角度区间力链概率接近时，试样中将出现两个剪切带。  相似文献   

联合概率法在合并相邻台网地震目录中的应用:以2014年鲁甸序列为例          下载免费PDF全文

龙锋  蒋长胜  祁玉萍  刘自凤  傅莺 《地球物理学报》2018,61(7):2815-2827

中国目前实行的区域地震台网独立运行机制，使得在相邻不同台网的交界地区可能存在多个版本的地震目录和震相观测报告，影响了地震活动性分析与研究.为此，本文提出了一种基于联合概率的方法，可标明两个或多个相邻台网目录中相同的事件，合并它们的震相数据开展重新定位，并重构不同台网交界地区的统一地震目录.该方法的思路与分析步骤是：首先，计算获得不同台网之间具有最小发震时刻差异的两两地震的时空强差异分布，查找并剔除独立地震，计算事件合并的联合概率；其次，基于联合概率分析合并不同台网的地震目录和震相观测报告，对合并事件进行重新定位和定位误差分析，并基于G-R关系检验重构目录的完整性.本文以2014年鲁甸地震序列为例的初步应用结果显示，震相合并之后的地震定位精度相比之前单个台网的结果，特别是相比四川台网的目录，定位精度提高非常显著，合并后的目录与之前相对完整的云南目录接近，但相比由两个台网目录简单拼凑而成的目录更加准确.此外，研究还发现在目录合并过程中，对于4级以上的中强震，应选择M_S而不是以M_L震级标度；震相合并后被复用台站记录的到时信息可用于检测不同台网间的震相拾取是否存在系统偏差.本文提出的方法使得在相邻不同台网的过渡区形成一个统一且尽可能准确可靠的地震目录成为可能.  相似文献