Riverine large wood and recreation safety: A framework to discretize and contextualize hazard     

Will Conley  Natalie Kramer 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(9):2201-2216

The importance of large wood (LW) to riverine functions is well established scientifically and increasingly recognized by river managers in many countries. However, public perceptions largely associate LW with elevated danger and/or need for intervention. Such perspectives are amplified amongst recreational river users (defined here as any individuals that recreate by floating on the water surface of a river) who interact more directly with rivers than the general public and commonly view wood in life-or-death terms. Given that human life occupies a highest-order charge for river managers, they are left in a difficult position when safety appears to conflict with environmental services. LW deficits are perpetuated partly because wood removal, often in the name of safety, is far easier than placing wood in rivers. Further, river restoration practitioners are frequently burdened with expectations and liability unparalleled in built environments. A fundamentally different mindset is necessary to achieve desired ecologic outcomes when working with rivers. Based on two decades of experience as boaters, LW practitioners, and emergency responders, we (1) discuss LW hazard and risk from recreational and management viewpoints, (2) discretize objective and measurable physical properties of LW hazards, and (3) propose a decision framework that implicitly addresses risk by considering LW hazards relative to river use and ambient hazards. The approach is structured to increase objectivity in LW hazard mitigation and diminish asymmetric biases that favor LW removal. Our intent is to build understanding and rational flexibility among risk-averse management, regulatory, and funding entities to facilitate implementation of scientific understanding without undue risk to river users. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Identification of factors influencing hydrologic model performance using a top-down approach in a large number of U.S. catchments     

Carolina Massmann 《水文研究》2020,34(1):4-20

Investigating the performance that can be achieved with different hydrological models across catchments with varying characteristics is a requirement for identifying an adequate model for any catchment, gauged or ungauged, just based on information about its climate and catchment properties. As parameter uncertainty increases with the number of model parameters, it is important not only to identify a model achieving good results but also to aim at the simplest model still able to provide acceptable results. The main objective of this study is to identify the climate and catchment properties determining the minimal required complexity of a hydrological model. As previous studies indicate that the required model complexity varies with the temporal scale, the study considers the performance at the daily, monthly, and annual timescales. In agreement with previous studies, the results show that catchments located in arid areas tend to be more difficult to model. They therefore require more complex models for achieving an acceptable performance. For determining which other factors influence model performance, an analysis was carried out for four catchment groups (snowy, arid, and eastern and western catchments). The results show that the baseflow and aridity indices are the most consistent predictors of model performance across catchment groups and timescales. Both properties are negatively correlated with model performance. Other relevant predictors are the fraction of snow in the annual precipitation (negative correlation with model performance), soil depth (negative correlation with model performance), and some other soil properties. It was observed that the sign of the correlation between the catchment characteristics and model performance varies between clusters in some cases, stressing the difficulties encountered in large sample analyses. Regarding the impact of the timescale, the study confirmed previous results indicating that more complex models are needed for shorter timescales.  相似文献   

基于模糊理论的高铁连续梁桥地震风险评估          下载免费PDF全文

冯莉  樊燕燕  王力  李子奇 《地震工程学报》2020,42(3):639-645

以某高速铁路线上一座连续梁桥为例,运用模糊综合评判法,结合基于位移的支座损伤分析和截面曲率的桥墩损伤分析,以全概率理论地震损失模型为基础,提出了基于模糊理论的桥梁系统地震经济风险评估方法。结果表明:综合考虑桥梁系统的模糊地震经济风险分析方法能更全面地计算出连续梁桥在地震作用下的经济损失,仅以桥墩构件代表全桥所得地震经济损失误差较大。基于模糊理论的年预期损失风险框架方法通过结构抗震性能的概率特征可对高速铁路连续梁桥的地震直接经济风险进行全面评估,为该类桥梁的抗震设计、维修加固和灾后重建等方案做出合理评价。  相似文献   

海南省连片贫困地区农户致贫风险分析   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

张金萍  宋伟  林丹  余珍鑫  李庭筠  罗邱戈  程叶青 《地理科学》2020,40(4):608-616

农村贫困与减贫是世界性难题,也是中国各级政府高度重视并着力解决的重大民生问题。基于农户及致贫风险的文献梳理,从区位、社会和劳动力3个要素维度构建了农户致贫风险分析的二元Logistic回归模型。采用484户农户问卷调查数据,分析了海南省连片贫困地区农户的致贫风险,提出有效减贫和持续发展对策。研究发现:① 海南连片贫困地区生态环境良好但贫困发生率较高,家庭劳动力较充裕但受教育水平较低,子女教育支出负担重,因病因残致贫比例较高,女性务工人口较多,农户自身脱贫致富的发展动力不足。② 海拔高度200 m以下、男性户主、拥有残疾或患病成员、务工人口比例低、女性务工人员占比高、以及单位劳动力供养学生数高的农户具有更大的致贫风险。③ 研究未发现女性户主、少数民族、低受教育水平户主、大型规模家庭有更高的致贫风险,女性成员比例、抚养比等因素对农户贫困影响较小。激发农户内生动力、大力发展特色化和规模化农业、增加农户就业机会、加强针对农民工、女性务工人员和病残群体的社会保障等减贫政策制定实施是实现脱贫攻坚目标的重要途径。  相似文献   

美国出口管制下中国外贸风险的省域地理差异     

姜辉 《地理科学》2020,40(10):1618-1626

从总贸易、出口、进口、外资和人员5个视角构建对美风险系数，测度和比较各省区市对美外贸风险的地理差异。结果表明：上海、浙江和福建与美国的进出口贸易规模最大，对美国市场的依赖程度最高，面临的综合外贸风险最大；河南尤其需要防范对美国的出口风险；海南、新疆、天津和西藏等需要加强从美国进口的风险管理；重庆除了需要防范对美出口风险外，还因为实际利用美资最多且依赖程度最大，亟需加强外资风险管理。宁夏和山西虽然从美国的引资规模不大，但是对美资的依赖程度最高，亟需提升外资多元化水平。从人员跨境流动风险来看，上海、北京和浙江面临的风险最大。中国各省区市在应对美国出口管制时应该加强外贸风险的识别和管理，针对不同的风险采取差别化的防范和化解措施。  相似文献   

1981—2018 年庆阳市气候舒适度特征分析及评价          下载免费PDF全文

张可心 《干旱区地理》2020,43(5):1270-1277

为了对庆阳市气候资源特征进行分析和评价，指导当地城乡规划建设及旅游业的发展，利 用庆阳市 1981—2018 年 8 个气象观测站逐日气温、降水、风速、相对湿度、日照时数等资料，计算当 地气候舒适度的 4 种参数，分析庆阳市气候舒适度时空变化特征，结果表明：庆阳市春季、秋季偏 冷，夏无酷暑，温暖舒适，冬季寒冷，较不舒适；温湿指数、风效指数、穿衣指数年际变化特征显示， 四季气候均有向暖发展的趋势，春季和夏季变化趋势极显著，秋季和冬季变化显著性较弱；综合指 数年际波动大，夏季气候趋于不舒适，其余季节均趋于舒适；气候舒适期年内分布特征显示，5～9 月 为全市气候舒适期，适合开展旅游活动；5 月和 9 月舒适度空间分布的总体特征是西部高，东部低， 6～8 月均为东南部高，西部、北部低；舒适度月变化总体特征为，5 月＞6 月＞9 月＞8 月＞7 月。  相似文献   

柴达木盆地尕斯库勒湖区盐生植物改良土壤盐渍化效应及其贡献评价          下载免费PDF全文

余冬梅  祁兆鑫  胡夏嵩  刘亚斌  王建萍  李姜瑶 《盐湖研究》2020,28(4):91-101

在柴达木盆地尕斯库勒盐湖区,通过对芦苇、赖草、海韭菜、无脉苔草、洽草、盐地风毛菊、羊齿天门冬、小花棘豆和白刺9种盐生植物生长区土壤容重、含水量、全盐量、pH值、全氮、速效钾、速效磷进行测试分析,研究其对盐渍化土壤的改良效果。试验结果表明:9种盐生植物均可降低土壤容重、全盐量和pH值,提高土壤含水量,其平均全盐量较裸地降低了3.79%~85.40%,平均降低幅度为44.99%,小花棘豆降低土壤容重相对较为显著(17.39%),无脉苔草相对较差(1.37%)；盐地风毛菊降低土壤pH值的能力相对较强(5.11%),羊齿天门冬相对较弱；赖草提高土壤含水量相对较为显著(26.05%),白刺相对较差(1.85%)。9种盐生植物可不同程度增加土壤全氮含量,且随取样深度增加全氮含量呈逐渐降低的变化趋势；9种盐生植物坡面地表以下垂直方向0~20 cm土体速效磷含量表现出增加趋势,其中在地表以下20~50 cm位置速效磷含量增加相对较为显著,土体速效磷含量增加的程度由大至小依次为:小花棘豆、赖草、无脉苔草、海韭菜、白刺、羊齿天门冬、芦苇、洽草和盐地风毛菊。研究结果对于利用盐生植物防治土壤盐渍化,以及进一步提高土壤可持续利用有实际价值。  相似文献   

贵州草海湿地不同水位梯度沉积物中汞、砷形态分布及风险评价     

汤向宸  林陶  夏品华  黄先飞  马莉  杨羽 《湖泊科学》2020,32(1):100-110

通过改进Tessier连续提取法对贵州草海黑颈鹤栖息地不同水位梯度下沉积物汞(Hg)、砷(As)形态及生态风险进行了研究.结果表明,草海湿地沉积物中Hg含量在0.45～1.51-mg/kg之间,超过国家土壤环境质量农用地土壤风险管控标准;形态组成上,残渣态汞(Res-Hg)有机结合态汞(Org-Hg)碳酸盐结合态(Car-Hg)铁锰氧化态(Fe-O-Hg)可交换态(Ex-Hg),不同水位梯度下含量和赋存形态在不同区域不一致.As含量在16.4～23.8-mg/kg之间,形态依次为残渣态砷(Res-As)有机结合态砷(Org-As)铁锰氧化态砷(Fe-O-As)碳酸盐结合态砷(Car-As)可交换态砷(Ex-As).-As含量与贵州省土壤背景值持平,随着水位梯度的抬升,其总量呈增加趋势,残渣态占比逐步增多,性质逐渐稳定.采用地积累指数(I_(geo))、潜在生态风险指数(E_r~i)、风险评价编码法(RAC)对Hg、As的危害程度进行分析表明,基于草海较高Hg环境背景值,Hg整体污染风险较高,As处于低水平的污染风险等级且对环境影响较小.该研究揭示了不同水位梯度下Hg、As总量及形态分布特征,对草海湿地水位抬升恢复湿地提供了参考.  相似文献   

基于钻进状态监测的智能工况识别          下载免费PDF全文

范海鹏  吴敏  曹卫华  赖旭芝  陈略峰  陆承达 《探矿工程》2020,47(4):106-113

钻进过程状态监测旨在实时描述钻进工况，判断运行性能优劣程度进行非优追溯，及时指导司钻人员调整作业操作,保证钻进过程安全、高效、稳定开展。钻进工况是钻进系统运行状态的反映，因此开展面向状态监测技术的钻进工况识别研究具有重要的理论和应用价值。本文针对钻进工况识别问题，基于状态监测数据，建立基于支持向量机的钻进工况识别模型，对钻进工况进行识别。综合工况识别结果，对钻进效率进行评估，并对影响钻进效率的因素进行讨论，寻找提升钻进效率的手段。最后，采用钻进现场实钻数据进行仿真实验,验证所提方法的可行性和有效性。  相似文献   

基于RS和GIS的临武县矿山地质环境调查评价          下载免费PDF全文

刘博  姚腾飞  皮建高  周鑫  王璨 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2020,31(1):135-142

本文通过遥感解译和实地核查,查明了临武县主要的矿山地质环境问题,并对矿山地质环境问题和地质环境背景条件进行分析研究,建立矿山地质环境综合评价指标体系,应用"专家打分-层次分析法"确定评价指标权重,根据相关规范确定评价指标等级,建立评价模型。基于ArcGIS平台,对各指标进行信息提取、赋值和叠加运算,再根据综合评价分级标准,得到矿山地质环境综合评价分区图。评价结果与实际调查情况相符,说明建立的评价指标体系较合理。研究成果对临武县矿山地质环境保护与生态文明建设具有重要的参考意义。  相似文献