Riverine large wood and recreation safety: A framework to discretize and contextualize hazard     

Will Conley  Natalie Kramer 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(9):2201-2216

The importance of large wood (LW) to riverine functions is well established scientifically and increasingly recognized by river managers in many countries. However, public perceptions largely associate LW with elevated danger and/or need for intervention. Such perspectives are amplified amongst recreational river users (defined here as any individuals that recreate by floating on the water surface of a river) who interact more directly with rivers than the general public and commonly view wood in life-or-death terms. Given that human life occupies a highest-order charge for river managers, they are left in a difficult position when safety appears to conflict with environmental services. LW deficits are perpetuated partly because wood removal, often in the name of safety, is far easier than placing wood in rivers. Further, river restoration practitioners are frequently burdened with expectations and liability unparalleled in built environments. A fundamentally different mindset is necessary to achieve desired ecologic outcomes when working with rivers. Based on two decades of experience as boaters, LW practitioners, and emergency responders, we (1) discuss LW hazard and risk from recreational and management viewpoints, (2) discretize objective and measurable physical properties of LW hazards, and (3) propose a decision framework that implicitly addresses risk by considering LW hazards relative to river use and ambient hazards. The approach is structured to increase objectivity in LW hazard mitigation and diminish asymmetric biases that favor LW removal. Our intent is to build understanding and rational flexibility among risk-averse management, regulatory, and funding entities to facilitate implementation of scientific understanding without undue risk to river users. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Impacts of confining pressure and safety thickness on water and mud inrush in weathered granite     

Jinquan Liu  Weizhong Chen  Zhiping Deng  Taogen Liu 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2020,38(2):144-153

Abstract

Due to the strong disintegration and water erosion of completely weathered granite, water and mud inrush disasters are apt to take place in this zone during underwater tunnel construction. The pore, compactness, seepage path length, fracture geometries and their interconnections for water and mud transfer are strongly influenced by confining pressure and waterproof-resistant slab safety thickness. In order to inspect the influence, a series of experiments based on a self-designed testing system and non-Darcy testing method were performed. The results indicated that the water and mud inrush evolution increased with the increase of confining pressure and decreased with the increase of safety thickness. In particular, the confining pressure mainly influences the initial evolution stage, and a critical safety thickness to prevent water and mud inrush is obtained. Besides, the non-Darcy testing method results shows that the water and mud inrush evolution affects the influence of non-Darcy flow. For example, while the safety thickness was smaller than the critical value, the evolution was large and unstable and its behavior transferred into nonlinear. In this case, the flow changed to non-Darcy flow.  相似文献   

结合云计算与大数据的出租房消防安全监管GIS     

徐刚  杨立博  裴政皓  陈杰 《测绘通报》2019,(8):121-124,157

我国城镇化进程和经济发展效果卓著，但消防建设规划与城市扩张发展之间并不协调。虽然现有研究已经运用GIS技术到消防安全监管当中，但依然存在信息联动性不强，可视化程度低的问题。为此，本文基于地理信息系统技术对城市开发区内地理信息数据、多源多时态遥感及航空影像、巡查数据、出租房数据等进行有效整合完善，以建立时空地理信息大数据。笔者利用虚拟化、云计算等技术建立出租房消防安全动态监管平台。此平台为管理部门提供了基于地理信息的决策支持，提升了出租房管理的高效性和科学性。系统的建成和应用对我国的出租房管理信息化工作的开展具有重要意义。  相似文献   

长白山景区旅游安全风险动态评价研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孙滢悦  杨青山  陈鹏 《地理科学》2019,39(5):770-778

以长白山景区旅游安全为研究对象,以鱼骨图、动态贝叶斯、GIS技术等为基本研究方法,从研究区自然环境、社会环境及责任人为3个方面出发,筛选景区致险因子,构建景区旅游安全风险危险性评价指标体系,利用动态贝叶斯方法综合构建景区旅游安全风险动态评价模型;并以实测数据及景区统计数据为依据,划分景区旅游安全风险评价的4个动态时段,综合实现景区旅游安全风险动态风险评价。研究结果表明：① 中等以上风险区域呈条带状分布;② 高风险区域与主要景点重合;③ 长白山景区安全风险发生高概率的时段发生在第三个时段（12:00~14:00）;较高概率发生分别在第二个时段（10:00~12:00）与第四个时段（14:00~16:00）;中等概率发生较高的时段在第四个时段（14:00~16:00）;较低概率发生在第一个时段（8:00~10:00）。  相似文献   

基于可靠性的海洋立管疲劳安全系数研究     

吴剑国  万子诚  李智博  张萌  戴伟  孙政策 《海洋工程》2018,36(6):1-9

综合考虑了立管疲劳安全系数取值的相关因素——立管的安全等级、设计寿命、检验周期、载荷和损伤计算方法等的不确定性,提出了基于可靠度的疲劳安全系数确定方法,筛选了用于计算波致疲劳和VIV(涡激振动)疲劳的随机变量,给出了立管波致疲劳与VIV疲劳安全系数的计算流程,并以某SCR(钢悬链线立管)为例进行了安全系数计算。结果表明,该方法的计算结果优于传统的安全系数确定方法,尤其适合于特殊工程方案或新颖设计的立管疲劳校核。  相似文献   

Stability analysis of shotcrete supported crown of NATM tunnels with discontinuity layout optimization          下载免费PDF全文

Yiming Zhang  Xiaoying Zhuang  Roman Lackner 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(11):1199-1216

For tunnel constructed by New Austrian Tunnelling Method, the crown is the upper part of tunnel section, constructed during excavation process and supported by shotcrete. The stability of the crown has great influence on the safety of tunnel itself and the buildings above, which correlates, among others, with geometrical setup of tunnel and material properties of shotcrete and soil/rock. In this paper, aiming at analyzing the stability of shotcrete supported crown, a recently presented numerical method discontinuity layout optimization is adopted, which introduces a great amount of potential discontinuities cross over one another and provides a wide search space for efficient upper limit analysis. In the analysis, a well‐established hydration model of cementitious material is implemented for accounting the hydration of shotcrete. Then assumptions based on convergence‐confinement method are used for accounting the 3‐dimensional effect in 2‐dimensional analysis, finally providing time‐space–dependent assessments of stability of shotcrete supported crown.  相似文献   

基于ARIO模型的震后重建施工现场安全管理方法          下载免费PDF全文

顾连胜 《地震工程学报》2018,40(6):1350-1355

为提高受灾地区重建安全性，提出基于ARIO模型的震后重建施工现场安全管理方法。在将建筑设计影响因素划分为直接因素与间接因素的基础上，将ARIO模型引入震后重建施工现场安全管理中，利用其分析施工过程中各产业技术与该地区经济的联系，在考虑经济因素的基础上实现震后施工现场安全管理。设计并构建施工初期数据采集系统、施工前安全管理系统、施工过程中安全管理系统，将ARIO与VR结合，使各系统运行时施工人员能够在虚拟漫游中以第一视角完成虚拟施工，掌握整个工期、流程、所用设备等有关信息，并由辅助专家作出相应指导，实现震后重建施工现场安全系统化管理。提出施工安全辅助建议，以完善灾后重建安全管理方法。实验结果表明，该方法运行后安全系数大于当前方法，其科学性和鲁棒性较强。  相似文献   

Probabilistic stability analyses of undrained slopes by 3D random fields and finite element methods     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2018,9(6):1657-1664

A long slope consisting of spatially random soils is a common geographical feature. This paper examined the necessity of three-dimensional(3 D) analysis when dealing with slope with full randomness in soil properties. Although 3 D random finite element analysis can well reflect the spatial variability of soil properties, it is often time-consuming for probabilistic stability analysis. For this reason, we also examined the least advantageous(or most pessimistic) cross-section of the studied slope. The concept of"most pessimistic" refers to the minimal cross-sectional average of undrained shear strength. The selection of the most pessimistic section is achievable by simulating the undrained shear strength as a 3 D random field. Random finite element analysis results suggest that two-dimensional(2 D) plane strain analysis based the most pessimistic cross-section generally provides a more conservative result than the corresponding full 3 D analysis. The level of conservativeness is around 15% on average. This result may have engineering implications for slope design where computationally tractable 2 D analyses based on the procedure proposed in this study could ensure conservative results.  相似文献   

Structural stability of gravity dams: a progressive assessment considering uncertainties in shear strength parameters     

Mathilde Cordier 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(2):109-122

Structural sliding stability of gravity dams is generally quantified using deterministic factor of safety, FS_det. Large FS_det (e.g. 3 in normal condition), are used in existing guidelines to guard against material and load uncertainties. Some guidelines allow an arbitrary reduction in FS_det (e.g. 2) when the knowledge in strength parameters increases from material test data. Yet, those reduced FS_det are not based on a rational consideration of uncertainties. Propagation of uncertainties could be done using probabilistic analyses, such as Monte-Carlo simulations (MC) which are complex and challenging for practical use. There is thus a need to develop simplified reliability based safety assessment procedures that could rationalise the adjustment of FS_det. This paper presents a progressive analysis methodology using four safety evaluation formats of increasing complexity: (i) deterministic, (ii) semi-probabilistic (partial coefficient), (iii) reliability based Adjustable Factor of Safety (AFS), and (iv) probabilistic. Comprehensive comparisons are made for the sliding safety evaluation of a 80 m gravity dam. Results are presented in terms of sliding factors of safety, allowable water levels, and demand/capacity ratios. It is shown that the AFS formulation, using direct integration, is simple and practical to use in complement to existing dam safety guidelines before undertaking MC simulations.  相似文献   

基于边坡稳定性计算方法比较分析          下载免费PDF全文

陈卫华  胡福洪  陈锋 《探矿工程》2018,45(9):71-74

将强度折减法应用于边坡稳定性分析中,折减土体强度,代入有限元程序进行计算,直至计算不收敛,此时的折减系数即为安全系数。结合工程实例,将强度折减法应用于边坡稳定性的分析,利用瑞典圆弧法,结合岩土工程设计类软件天汉以及有限元分析软件ABAQUS分析边坡稳定性,并对安全系数进行对比,3种计算方法得出的安全系数差别不大,安全系数精度都能满足工程要求。  相似文献