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NARX neural network approach for the monthly prediction of groundwater levels in Sylhet Sadar,Bangladesh 
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下载免费PDF全文 Abdullah Al Jami Meher Uddin Himel Khairul Hasan Shilpy Rani Basak Ayesha Ferdous Mita 《地下水科学与工程》2020,8(2):118-126
Groundwater is important for managing the water supply in agricultural countries like Bangladesh. Therefore, the ability to predict the changes of groundwater level is necessary for jointly planning the uses of groundwater resources. In this study, a new nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs(NARX) network has been applied to simulate monthly groundwater levels in a well of Sylhet Sadar at a local scale. The Levenberg-Marquardt(LM) and Bayesian Regularization(BR) algorithms were used to train the NARX network, and the results were compared to determine the best architecture for predicting monthly groundwater levels over time. The comparison between LM and BR showed that NARX-BR has advantages over predicting monthly levels based on the Mean Squared Error(MSE), coefficient of determination(R~2), and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency(NSE). The results show that BR is the most accurate method for predicting groundwater levels with an error of ± 0.35 m. This method is applied to the management of irrigation water source, which provides important information for the prediction of local groundwater fluctuation at local level during a short period. 相似文献
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Livelihood diversification as an adaptation approach to change in the pastoral Hindu-Kush Himalayan region 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ning Wu Muhammad Ismail Srijana Joshi Shao-liang Yi Ritu Meher Shrestha Abdul Wahid Jasra 《山地科学学报》2014,11(5):1342-1355
Migratory livestock raising has been one of the most important livelihood options for people residing in high mountain areas and has made a significant contribution to the economy of the Hindu Kush Himalayan（HKH） region, both in terms of supporting households and in export earnings. However, in recent decades, changes in the socioeconomic situation and increasing climate variability have led to a need to enhance adaptation by building the resilience of local socio-ecological systems, including economic diversification and sustainable management of natural resources. Based on semistructured interviews with pastoral communities in six countries within the pastoral HKH region, this paper discusses the situation, trends and driving forces behind the diversification of pastoral livelihood. For internal diversification the study highlights the need for enhancement of pastoral livelihoods through value-adding activities in the pastoral sectors. For external diversification changes on policy changes are needed to support free out-migration, market exploitation, and multiple resource use. Finally the paper highlights the role of education in determining household adaptation strategies in the face of various socio-ecological pressures and recommends integrating innovative and indigenous knowledge to develop appropriate methods for risk management and resource management in the pastoral HKH region. 相似文献
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Embedded foundation in layered soil under dynamic excitations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The critical step in the substructure approach for the soil–structure interaction (SSI) problem is to determine the impedance functions (dynamic-stiffness coefficients) of the foundations. In the present study, a computational tool is developed to determine the impedance functions of foundation in layered soil medium. Cone frustums are used to model the foundation soil system. Cone frustums are developed based on wave propagation principles and force-equilibrium approach. The model is validated for its ability to represent the embedded foundation in layered medium by comparing the results with the rigorous analysis results. Various degrees of freedom, such as, horizontal, vertical and rocking are considered for this study. 相似文献
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Mitigation of Iron Toxicity and Iron,Zinc, and Manganese Nutrition of Wetland Rice Cultivars (Oryza sativa L.) Grown in Iron‐Toxic Soil 下载免费PDF全文
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Fatigue reliability analysis in time domain for inspection strategy of fixed offshore structures 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The paper describes a methodology for estimation of reliability of fixed offshore structures with respect to fatigue and extreme stress. The failure criteria for fatigue are formulated using fracture mechanics principle and that for extreme stress using API Code. Advanced Second Moment method is used to find the reliability index. The total life of the structure is divided into a set of stationary sea-states, occurring during storms and described by directional power spectrum. The method has been illustrated through application to a typical jacket platform. Usefulness of the methodology for planning in-service inspections has been highlighted. 相似文献
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Time series analysis has two goals, modeling random mechanisms and predicting future series using historical data. In the present work, a uni-variate time series autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been developed for (a) simulating and forecasting mean rainfall, obtained using Theissen weights; over the Mahanadi River Basin in India, and (b) simulating and forecasting mean rainfall at 38 rain-gauge stations in district towns across the basin. For the analysis, monthly rainfall data of each district town for the years 1901-2002 (102 years) were used. Theissen weights were obtained over the basin and mean monthly rainfall was estimated. The trend and seasonality observed in ACF and PACF plots of rainfall data were removed using power transformation (α=0.5) and first order seasonal differencing prior to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA model (1,0,0)(0,1,1) 12 developed here was found to be most suitable for simulating and forecasting mean rainfall over the Mahanadi River Basin and for all 38 district town rain-gauge stations, separately. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), goodness of fit (Chi-square), R 2 (coefficient of determination), MSE (mean square error) and MAE (mea absolute error) were used to test the validity and applicability of the developed ARIMA model at different stages. This model is considered appropriate to forecast the monthly rainfall for the upcoming 12 years in each district town to assist decision makers and policy makers establish priorities for water demand, storage, distribution, and disaster management. 相似文献
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Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Statistical downscaling is the technique of linking large-scale predictors and local-scale predictands through a relationship that is assumed to be helpful to... 相似文献
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