不同空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价模型对比研究          下载免费PDF全文

田丰  张军  冉有华  刘金鹏  周翼 《干旱区地理》2019,42(3):559-569

以山洪灾害风险评价的多准则决策模型、最大熵模型、信息量模型三种常见模型为研究对象，选取河西走廊和张掖市为地理区划（大中）、市域（小）空间尺度研究区，构建山洪灾害风险评价指标体系，分别完成基于三种模型的两种空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价制图，基于甘肃省地质灾害调查与区划报告数据从模型验证、空间自相关、精度对比和尺度效应等角度对比分析三个模型应用于不同空间尺度的适应性，并给出优选模型。结果表明：最大熵模型是河西走廊（地理区划）空间尺度上山洪灾害风险评价的优选模型；多准则决策模型不适用于张掖市（市域）空间尺度评价，且三个模型运行结果均没有河西走廊（地理区划）空间尺度上表现良好；三个模型的尺度效应明显，在地理区划空间尺度上应用较良好，缩小至市域空间尺度上模拟结果误差增大；不同空间尺度上，最大熵模型均优于多准则决策模型和信息量模型，适用于地理区划（大中）、市域（小）空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价。  相似文献   

Adaptive Transitions: The Long‐Term Perspective on Humans in Changing Coastal Settings     

Craig E. Colten 《Geographical review》2019,109(3):416-435

Adaptation is a key concept in long‐term human adjustments to climate change. Despite the centrality of human decisions and actions in adaptation, much of the climate change literature is thin on humanities and social science which are the primary approaches for understanding human activity. This situation is particularly pronounced in Louisiana's discussions about its disappearing coast line where research has concentrated in understanding biophysical processes and solutions prioritize short‐term adaptations. This paper reviews the relationship of adaptation and long‐term transitions in the global change discussion and traces how disjointed adaptations in coastal Louisiana have contributed to a perilous environmental situation there. It proposes a shift from discrete adaptations to efforts that incorporate interrelated biophysical and human adaptations that can sustain long‐term transitions.  相似文献   

Life in extreme environments: Approaches to study life-environment co-evolutionary strategies     

XIAO Xiang  ZHANG Yu 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,57(5):869-877

The term"extreme environments"describes the conditions that deviate from what mesophilic cells can tolerate.These conditions are"extreme"in the eye of mankind,but they may be suitable or even essential living conditions for most microorganisms.Hyperthermophilic microorganisms form a branch at the root of the phylogenetic tree,indicating that early life originated from extreme environments similar to that of modern deep-sea hydrothermal vents,which are characterized by high-temperature and oxygen-limiting conditions.During the inevitable cooling and gradual oxidation process on Earth,microorganisms developed similar mechanisms of adaptation.By studying modern extremophiles,we may be able to decode the mysterious history of their genomic evolution and to reconstruct early life.Because life itself is a process of energy uptake to maintain a dissipative structure that is not in thermodynamic equilibrium,the energy metabolism of microorganisms determines the pathway of evolution,the structure of an ecosystem,and the physiology of cells."Following energy"is an essential approach to understand the boundaries of life and to search for life beyond Earth.  相似文献   

Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.  相似文献   

On matryoshkas and meaning-making: Understanding the plasticity of climate change     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

Climate change is a complex issue and means different things to different people. Numerous scholars in history, philosophy, and psychology have explored these multiple meanings, referred to as the plasticity of climate change. Building on psychological research that seeks to explain why meanings differ, I present an analytical framework that draws on adult developmental psychology to explore how meaning is constructed, and how it may become increasingly more complex across a lifespan in a nested manner, much like Russian dolls (or matryoshkas). I then use the framework to analyze photo voice data from a case study about local perspectives on climate change in El Salvador. The main finding from this analysis is that a developmental approach can help to make sense of why there is such plasticity of meanings about climate change. Using photos and their interpretations to illustrate these findings, I examine how perspective-taking capacities arrive at different meanings about climate change, based on the object of awareness, complexity of thought, and scope of time. I then discuss implications of this preliminary work on how developmental psychology could help climate change scholar-practitioners to understand and align with different climate change meanings and support local actors to translate their own meanings about climate change into locally-owned actions.  相似文献   

Implementing climate change adaptation: lessons from India’s national adaptation fund on climate change (NAFCC)     

Ravi S. Prasad 《Climate Policy》2019,19(3):354-366

With poverty alleviation and sustainable development as key imperatives for a developing economy like India, what drives the resource-constrained state governments to prioritize actions that address climate change impacts? We examine this question and argue that without access to additional earmarked financial resources, climate action would get overshadowed by developmental priorities and effective mainstreaming might not be possible. A systematic literature review was carried out to draw insights from the current state of implementation of adaptation projects, programmes and schemes at the subnational levels, along with barriers to mainstreaming climate change adaptation. The findings from a literature review were supplemented with lessons emerging from the implementation of India’s National Adaptation Fund on Climate Change (NAFCC). The results of this study underscore the scheme’s relevance.

Key policy insights

• Experience with NAFCC implementation reveals that states require sustained ‘handholding’ in terms of financial, technical and capacity support until climate change issues are fully understood and embedded in the policy landscape.

• Domestic sources of finance are critically important in the absence of predictable and adequate adaptation finance from international sources.

• The dedicated window for climate finance fosters a spirit of competitive federalism among states and encourages enhanced climate action.

• Enhanced budgetary allocation to NAFCC to strengthen the state-level adaptation response and create capacity to mainstream climate change concerns in state planning frames, is urgently needed.

  相似文献   

Social capital and community preparation for urban flooding in China     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2015

Social capital can enhance community resilience to environmental change. Productive and trusted relations among social actors and effectual social norms can help local residents share resources, information and risks. The main objective of our study is to understand the ways in which social attributes and risk considerations influence adoption of resilient economic measures by individuals for reducing potential losses due to catastrophic rainstorm and flooding. This article provides evidence from China on how social capital contributes to anticipatory adaptation to environmental change. The inquiry is based on structured interviews with local residents of Tianjin, a flood-prone port city in China, and a standard regression analysis. Findings show that the intention to make preparation increases with the levels of social expectation, social relationship, and institutional trust. Perceived risk and damage experience, however, have no significant impacts. This suggests that building social capacity and trust will be more effective in enhancing community resilience than merely increasing awareness of hazard risks. We call for greater efforts on strengthening the capacity of formal and informal communal institutions. The structural changes required, however, are challenging.  相似文献   

Perceptions of Climate Change and Adaptation Responses in a Local Community: the Barwon Estuary Complex,Victoria     

Jaclyne Scally 《The Australian geographer》2011,42(4):387-401

The climate change focus in Australia has shifted from mitigation to adaptation with an emphasis on place-specific case studies. The Barwon Estuary Complex (BEC) on the Bellarine Peninsula, central Victoria, was the focus of this place-specific study in which 37 local stakeholders were consulted through a series of semi-structured interviews on the impacts of climate change on their coastal community. Overall there was uniformity in stakeholder perceptions of the climate change impacts and vulnerabilities pertaining to the BEC. In contrast, discussion on adaptation drew a diversity of responses. While 53 per cent of stakeholders indicated a need to limit the use of hard structures, and rather plan around a changing estuarine environment, opinion amongst the community group was divided. Some believed ‘retreat is the only option’ whilst others felt ‘there won't be much leaving’. The present level of confusion around adaptation highlights the imperative of commencing discussions now to allow sufficient time to develop strategies which are both environmentally and socially responsible. This is important as ultimately it will be the community that will determine whether adaptation strategies are adopted or met with resistance.  相似文献   

东北地区矿业城市产业生态系统适应性评价   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

仇方道  佟连军  姜萌 《地理研究》2011,30(2):243-255

在对矿业城市产业生态系统适应性内涵进行界定的基础上,基于易损性、敏感性、稳定性和弹性等适应性要素构建了矿业城市产业生态系统适应性评价指标体系和评价模型,并据此对东北地区矿业城市产业生态系统适应性分异特征、类型及影响因素进行了深入探讨,发现:东北矿业城市产业生态系统适应能力呈正态分布;从资源类型看,东北矿业城市产业生态系统系统适应性呈现冶金类>综合类>煤炭类>石油类的特征;从空间格局看,呈现辽宁省>吉林省>黑龙江省的变化趋势;从发展阶段看,呈现老年期>中年期>幼年期的递变规律;从城市规模看,呈现特大城市>大城市>中等城市的递变规律。据此,采用聚类分析方法,将东北矿业城市产业生态系统分为4种类型,即高适应能力、协调发展类型;高适应能力、环境优先类型;低适应能力、协调发展类型;低适应能力、环境优先类型。  相似文献   

不同气温与土壤湿度条件下籽蒿幼苗的表型可塑性   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

郭立冬  何兴东 《中国沙漠》2011,30(4):987-991

  植物表型可塑性是其适应环境的结果。为了探讨构件水平和全株水平表型可塑性的差异,我们选择籽蒿进行了双因素(气温:35 ℃、30 ℃、20 ℃; 土壤水分:对照、轻度、中度、重度胁迫)随机化区组实验以分析不同环境条件下植物的表型可塑性。结果表明,气温对籽蒿株高生长率有显著影响,土壤水分胁迫对籽蒿株高生长率无显著影响; 气温和土壤水分胁迫对籽蒿地上部生物量和根重生长率均无显著影响; 土壤水分胁迫对籽蒿幼苗根冠比有显著影响,而气温对其则无显著影响。这说明气温和土壤水分胁迫对籽蒿幼苗构件表型可塑性和全株表型可塑性的影响是有差异的。进一步分析表明,气温对籽蒿幼苗的叶含水量有显著影响,而对籽蒿幼苗的叶饱和亏无显著影响,这说明气温对籽蒿幼苗株高生长率的影响是通过影响其叶含水量来实现。  相似文献