The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model     

Phuoc Khac‐Tien Nguyen  Lloyd Hock‐Chye Chua 《水文研究》2012,26(19):2878-2893

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Environmental impacts of shrimp farming with special reference to the situation in the continental United States     

J. Stephen Hopkins  Paul A. Sandifer  M. Richard DeVoe  A. Frederick Holland  Craig L. Browdy  Alvin D. Stokes 《Estuaries and Coasts》1995,18(1):25-42

Shrimp culture technology has resulted in development of a major shrimp farming industry worldwide. Without the shrimp farming industry, increasing demands for shrimp by consumers could not be met, resulting in increased pressure on wild shrimp resources. Unfortunately, there are realized and potential adverse environmental effects on estuarine ecosystems as a result of shrimp farming. The effects can be categorized as wetland destruction for construction of shrimp farms, hypernutrification of estuarine ecosystems by shrim pond effluent, “biological pollution” of native shrimp stocks through escapement of aquaculture stocks, water use and entrainment of estuarine biota, and impacts of shrimp farm chemicals on estuarine systems. While the shrimp farming industry in the United States is small, the United States is effectively addressing all the realized and potential environmental impacts through regulation and research at the federal and state levels. Areas of regulation and research include stringent prohibitions on wetland destruction, regulation of effluents and support of research to eliminate and/or reduce effluents, escapement prevention technology and development of high-health stocks, minimizing entrainment of estuarine biota through water conservation and screening technology, and regulation of chemical use in the shrimp farming industry and support of research on shrimp pathology and environmentally safe disease control. Work is still in progress and not all problems have been resolved to the complete satisfaction of shrimp farmers and estuarine conservationists. However, the situation in the United States should serve as a model of how to encourage sustainable economic development through commercial shrimp farming while abating adverse environmental impacts on estuarine systems. To further improve the situation, the development and adoption of “best management practices” for shrimp aquaculture are recommended.  相似文献   

Phase-shift migration with a variable-length spatial transform–an algorithm for moderately varying lateral velocities1     

Alvin K. Benson 《Geophysical Prospecting》1995,43(6):729-741

A migration algorithm appropriate for moderately varying lateral velocity changes is developed as an extension of phase-shift migration by using a variable-length spatial transform. This process significantly reduces the number of lateral wave-numbers necessary to downward continue the data, and it replaces the spatial FFT with a simple recursion relationship. For a given frequency and position x, ten lateral wavenumbers are typically sufficient, and the migration algorithm produces accurate images when the velocity structure V (X, z) changes over a few depth intervals of thickness Δz, with lateral velocity gradients up to 1.4 to 1.0.  相似文献   

Safer coasts,living with risks     

Chua Thia-Eng  Danilo A. Bonga 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2009,52(7):325-326

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Use of fluorescein as a ground water tracer in brackish water aquifers     

Chua LH  Robertson AP  Yee WK  Shuy EB  Lo EY  Lim TT  Tan SK 《Ground water》2007,45(1):85-88

A drift and pumpback experiment was conducted in a brackish water sandfill. The sandfill was reclaimed from the sea in the eastern part of Singapore and contains sands with low organic and clay/silt contents. The high salinity in the ground water precludes the use of chloride and bromide as tracers in such an environment, and a field experiment was conducted to assess the viability of using fluorescein as a tracer in brackish water aquifers. Nitrate was used as a second tracer to serve as a check. Initial laboratory studies showed that fluorescence was unaffected over the range of electrical conductivity and pH of the ground water. Results from the field experiment show that fluorescein appears to behave conservatively.  相似文献   

Effects of meteorological and hydrogeological factors on gross recharge percentage at unconfined sandy aquifers with an equatorial climate     

Stephen Boon Kean Tan  Eng Ban Shuy  Lloyd Hock Chye Chua 《水文研究》2007,21(18):2493-2503

A thorough understanding of rainfall recharge processes and their controlling factors is essential for management of groundwater systems. This study investigates the effects of various meteorological and hydrogeological factors on the gross recharge percentages, the rainfall–recharge relationships and the recharge threshold values for unconfined sandy aquifers under an equatorial climate. Among the meteorological factors investigated, rainfall intensity was found to have the most significant impact on the gross recharge rate. The effects of potential evaporation rate, relative humidity and air temperature on the gross recharge percentage were significant when the vadose zone thickness is larger than 2·5 m. The recharge threshold values were found to depend strongly on the vadose zone thickness. The rainfall–recharge relationships could generally be well defined by a normal–log relationship. The rainfall–recharge relationships derived here are applicable to yield estimates of gross recharge percentages for unconfined sandy aquifers under an equatorial climate, using rainfall intensity and vadose zone thickness as input variables. In this study, a theory was developed and validated to provide physical explanations for the observations, based on the residence time of the percolated rainwater within the vadose zone. Among the soil hydraulic parameters tested, porosity and saturated hydraulic conductivity were found to have the most pronounced effects on the gross recharge percentage. Utilizing the sensitivity results and the theory derived, an approach was developed for extending the application of the derived rainfall–recharge relationships to other sand textures. The approach was found to be capable of producing rough and fast estimations of gross recharge percentage for other sand textures. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Gravity waves in Jupiter's stratosphere, as measured by the Galileo ASI experiment     

Leslie A. Young  Roger V. Yelle  Alvin Seiff  Donn B. Kirk 《Icarus》2005,173(1):185-199

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THE ROLE OF GEOGRAPHERS IN THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE     

Alvin A. Munn 《The Professional geographer》1980,32(3):361-364

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A hybrid Bayesian back‐propagation neural network approach to multivariate modelling     

C. G. Chua  A. T. C. Goh 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2003,27(8):651-667

There is growing interest in the use of back‐propagation neural networks to model non‐linear multivariate problems in geotehnical engineering. To overcome the shortcomings of the conventional back‐propagation neural network, such as overfitting, where the neural network learns the spurious details and noise in the training examples, a hybrid back‐propagation algorithm has been developed. The method utilizes the genetic algorithms search technique and the Bayesian neural network methodology. The genetic algorithms enhance the stochastic search to locate the global minima for the neural network model. The Bayesian inference procedures essentially provide better generalization and a statistical approach to deal with data uncertainty in comparison with the conventional back‐propagation. The uncertainty of data can be indicated using error bars. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the convergence and generalization capabilities of this hybrid algorithm. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

PAET,an entry probe experiment in the Earth's atmosphere     

Alvin Seiff  David E. Reese  Simon C. Sommer  Donn B. Kirk  Ellis E. Whiting  Hasso B. Niemann 《Icarus》1973,18(4):525-563

On June 20, 1971, an instrumented probe designated PAET entered the atmosphere near Bermuda at a velocity of 6.6 km/sec carrying experiments designed for use at planets other than the Earth. Instruments to measure in situ the structure and composition of the atmosphere included accelerometers, pressure and temperature sensors, a mass spectrometer, and a radiometer (to sense characteristic emission from the probe shock layer at high speeds).The experiments were largely successful. The thermal structure of the atmosphere, including two major reversals in gradient, was shown to be well defined to an altitude of 80 km by comparison with more conventional meteorological soundings. The atmospheric mean molecular weight was defined within a percent by the structure experiment. The radiometers defined the bulk composition accurately and the trace quantity of CO₂ to one significant figure. The mass spectrometer functioned properly, but failed to give the correct composition because of problems in its sampling system. Oxygen was depleted, apparently by chemical reactions before reaching the spectrometer, and the inlet leak conductance was reduced from its preflight value by an order of magnitude. There is reason to believe that contamination by large molecules from the heat shield was responsible. This experiment should stimulate intensive laboratory work on sampling systems, so that similar problems do not arise in measurements of atmospheric composition at the planets.Results of auxiliary experiments to measure atmospheric water vapor, vehicle dynamics and heating, and communications blackout are also given.  相似文献