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1.
Quantification of parametric uncertainty of ANN models with GLUE method for different streamflow dynamics 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Hakan?TongalEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile Martijn?J.?Booij 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(4):993-1010
This study describes the parametric uncertainty of artificial neural networks (ANNs) by employing the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method. The ANNs are used to forecast daily streamflow for three sub-basins of the Rhine Basin (East Alpine, Main, and Mosel) having different hydrological and climatological characteristics. We have obtained prior parameter distributions from 5000 ANNs in the training period to capture the parametric uncertainty and subsequently 125,000 correlated parameter sets were generated. These parameter sets were used to quantify the uncertainty in the forecasted streamflow in the testing period using three uncertainty measures: percentage of coverage, average relative length, and average asymmetry degree. The results indicated that the highest uncertainty was obtained for the Mosel sub-basin and the lowest for the East Alpine sub-basin mainly due to hydro-climatic differences between these basins. The prediction results and uncertainty estimates of the proposed methodology were compared to the direct ensemble and bootstrap methods. The GLUE method successfully captured the observed discharges with the generated prediction intervals, especially the peak flows. It was also illustrated that uncertainty bands are sensitive to the selection of the threshold value for the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency measure used in the GLUE method by employing the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test. 相似文献
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Christian D. Langevin Joseph D. Hughes Alden M. Provost Martijn J. Russcher Sorab Panday 《Ground water》2024,62(1):111-123
MODFLOW 6 is the latest in a line of six “core” versions of MODFLOW released by the U.S. Geological Survey. The MODFLOW 6 architecture supports incorporation of additional hydrologic processes, in addition to groundwater flow, and allows interaction between processes. The architecture supports multiple model instances and multiple types of models within a single simulation, a flexible approach to formulating and solving the equations that represent hydrologic processes, and recent advances in interoperability, which allow MODFLOW to be accessed and controlled by external programs. The present version of MODFLOW 6 consolidates popular capabilities available in MODFLOW variants, such as the unstructured grid support in MODFLOW-USG, the Newton-Raphson formulation in MODFLOW-NWT, and the support for partitioned stress boundaries in MODFLOW-CDSS. The flexible multi-model capability allows users to configure MODFLOW 6 simulations to represent the local-grid refinement (LGR) capabilities available in MODFLOW-LGR, the multi-species transport capabilities in MT3DMS, and the coupled variable-density capabilities available in SEAWAT. This paper provides a new, holistic and integrated overview of simulation capabilities made possible by the MODFLOW 6 architecture, and describes how ongoing and future development can take advantage of the program architecture to integrate new capabilities in a way that is minimally invasive and automatically compatible with the existing MODFLOW 6 code. 相似文献
3.
Yue-Ping Xu Martijn J. Booij Yang-Bin Tong 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(5):567-578
With the increase of both magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events such as drought and flooding, the significance
of adequately modeling hydrological extreme events is fully recognized. Estimation of extreme rainfall/flood for various return
periods is of prime importance for hydrological design or risk assessment. However, due to knowledge and data limitation,
uncertainty involved in extrapolating beyond available data is huge. In this paper, different sources of uncertainty in statistical
modeling of extreme hydrological events are studied in a systematic way. This is done by focusing on several key uncertainty
sources using three different case studies. The chosen case studies highlight a number of projects where there have been questions
regarding the uncertainty in extreme rainfall/flood estimation. The results show that the uncertainty originated from the
methodology is the largest and could be >40% for a return period of 200 years, while the uncertainty caused by ignoring the
dependence among multiple hydrological variables seems the smallest. In the end, it is highly recommended that uncertainty
in modeling extreme hydrological events be fully recognized and incorporated into a formal hydrological extreme analysis. 相似文献
4.
Dennis Odijk Nandakumaran Nadarajah Safoora Zaminpardaz Peter J. G. Teunissen 《GPS Solutions》2017,21(2):439-450
Knowledge of inter-system biases (ISBs) is essential to combine observations of multiple global and regional navigation satellite systems (GNSS/RNSS) in an optimal way. Earlier studies based on GPS, Galileo, BDS and QZSS have demonstrated that the performance of multi-GNSS real-time kinematic positioning is improved when the differential ISBs (DISBs) corresponding to signals of different constellations but transmitted at identical frequencies can be calibrated, such that only one common pivot satellite is sufficient for inter-system ambiguity resolution at that particular frequency. Recently, many new GNSS satellites have been launched. At the beginning of 2016, there were 12 Galileo IOV/FOC satellites and 12 GPS Block IIF satellites in orbit, while the Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) had five satellites launched of which four are operational. More launches are scheduled for the coming years. As a continuation of the earlier studies, we analyze the magnitude and stability of the DISBs corresponding to these new satellites. For IRNSS this article presents for the first time DISBs with respect to the L5/E5a signals of GPS, Galileo and QZSS for a mixed-receiver baseline. It is furthermore demonstrated that single-frequency (L5/E5a) ambiguity resolution is tremendously improved when the multi-GNSS observations are all differenced with respect to a common pivot satellite, compared to classical differencing for which a pivot satellite is selected for each constellation. 相似文献
5.
The aim of this paper is to assess the relative importance of low flow indicators for the River Rhine and to identify their appropriate temporal lag and resolution. This is done in the context of low flow forecasting with lead times of 14 and 90 days. First, the Rhine basin is subdivided into seven sub‐basins. By considering the dominant processes in the sub‐basins, five low flow indicators were selected: precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, groundwater storage, snow storage and lake storage. Correlation analysis was then carried out to determine the relationship between observed low flows and preselected indicators with varying lags (days) and temporal resolutions (from 1 day to 7 months). The results show that the most important low flow indicators in the Alpine sub‐basins for forecasts with a lead time of 14 days are potential evapotranspiration with a large lag and temporal resolution, and lake levels with a small lag and temporal resolution. In the other sub‐basins groundwater levels with a small lag and temporal resolution are important in addition to potential evapotranspiration with a large lag and temporal resolution. The picture is slightly different for forecasts with a lead time of 90 days. The snow storage in the Alpine sub‐basins and the precipitation in the other sub‐basins also become relevant for low flows. Consequently, the most important low flow indicators in the Alpine sub‐basins for forecasts with a lead time of 90 days are potential evapotranspiration with a large lag and temporal resolution, lake levels with a small lag and temporal resolution and snow storage with a small lag and large temporal resolution. The resultant correlation maps provide appropriate lags and temporal resolutions for indicators to forecast low flows in the River Rhine with different lead times. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Attribution of changes in the water balance of a tropical catchment to land use change using the SWAT model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
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下载免费PDF全文 Changes in the water balance of the Samin catchment (277.9 km2) on Java, Indonesia, can be attributed to land use change using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model. A baseline‐altered method was used in which the simulation period 1990–2013 was divided into 4 equal periods to represent baseline conditions (1990–1995) and altered land use conditions (1996–2001, 2002–2007, and 2008–2013). Land use maps for 1994, 2000, 2006, and 2013 were acquired from satellite images. A Soil Water Assessment Tool model was calibrated for the baseline period and applied to the altered periods with and without land use change. Incorporating land use change resulted in a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.7 compared to 0.6 when land use change is ignored. In addition, the model performance for simulations without land use change gradually decreased with time. Land use change appeared to be the important driver for changes in the water balance. The main land use changes during 1994–2013 are a decrease in forest area from 48.7% to 16.9%, an increase in agriculture area from 39.2% to 45.4%, and an increase in settlement area from 9.8% to 34.3%. For the catchment, this resulted in an increase of the runoff coefficient from 35.7% to 44.6% and a decrease in the ratio of evapotranspiration to rainfall from 60% to 54.8%. More pronounced changes can be observed for the ratio of surface runoff to stream flow (increase from 26.6% to 37.5%) and the ratio of base flow to stream flow (decrease from 40% to 31.1%), whereas changes in the ratio of lateral flow to stream flow were minor (decrease from 33.4% to 31.4%). At sub‐catchment level, the effect of land use changes on the water balance varied in different sub‐catchments depending on the scale of changes in forest and settlement area. 相似文献
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Characterization of between-receiver GPS-Galileo inter-system biases and their effect on mixed ambiguity resolution 总被引：12，自引：6，他引：6
The Global Positioning System (GPS) and Galileo will transmit signals on similar frequencies, that is, the L1–E1 and L5–E5a frequencies. This will be beneficial for mixed GPS and Galileo applications in which the integer carrier phase ambiguities need to be resolved, in order to estimate the positioning unknowns with centimeter accuracy or better. In this contribution, we derive the mixed GPS + Galileo model that is based on “inter-system” double differencing, that is, differencing the Galileo phase and code observations relative to those corresponding to the reference or pivot satellite of GPS. As a consequence of this, additional between-receiver inter-system bias (ISB) parameters need to be solved as well for both phase and code data. We investigate the size and variability of these between-receiver ISBs, estimated from L1 and L5 observations of GPS, as well as E1 and E5a observations of the two experimental Galileo In-Orbit Validation Element (GIOVE) satellites. The data were collected using high-grade multi-GNSS receivers of different manufacturers for several zero- and short-baseline setups in Australia and the USA. From this analysis, it follows that differential ISBs are only significant for receivers of different types and manufacturers; for baselines formed by identical receiver types, no differential ISBs have shown up; thus, implying that the GPS and GIOVE data are then fully interoperable. Fortunately, in case of different receiver types, our analysis also indicates that the phase and code ISBs may be calibrated, since their estimates, based on several datasets separated in time, are shown to be very stable. When the single-frequency (E1) GIOVE phase and code data of different receiver types are a priori corrected for the differential ISBs, the short-baseline instantaneous ambiguity success rate increases significantly and becomes comparable to the success rate of mixed GPS + GIOVE ambiguity resolution based on identical receiver types. 相似文献
10.
The crisis of fisheries management is also a crisis of governability; somehow governments almost everywhere seem to run into trouble while managing fisheries. This article compares two alternative styles of regulation that are put forward as solutions to this crisis: market-based regulation and comanagement. In particular the contradiction is analyzed between an apparently strong theoretical basis for market-based regulation and actual practice which often opts for co-management. The theoretical basis of the market-based perspective is challenged and on the basis of an analysis of flatfishery management in the Netherlands, it is concluded that there are often sound arguments for restructuring the management responsibilities between public authorities and civil society. 相似文献