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Bayesian networks and agent-based modeling approach for urban land-use and population density change: a BNAS model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Land-use change models grounded in complexity theory such as agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly being used to examine evolving urban systems. The objective of this study is to develop a spatial model that simulates land-use change under the influence of human land-use choice behavior. This is achieved by integrating the key physical and social drivers of land-use change using Bayesian networks (BNs) coupled with agent-based modeling. The BNAS model, integrated Bayesian network–based agent system, presented in this study uses geographic information systems, ABMs, BNs, and influence diagram principles to model population change on an irregular spatial structure. The model is parameterized with historical data and then used to simulate 20 years of future population and land-use change for the City of Surrey, British Columbia, Canada. The simulation results identify feasible new urban areas for development around the main transportation corridors. The obtained new development areas and the projected population trajectories with the“what-if” scenario capabilities can provide insights into urban planners for better and more informed land-use policy or decision-making processes. 相似文献
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Stefano Lo Russo Glenda Taddia Loretta Gnavi Vittorio Verda 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(1):205-216
A fundamental aspect in groundwater heat pump (GWHP) plant design is the correct evaluation of the thermally affected zone that develops around the injection well. This is particularly important to avoid interference with previously existing groundwater uses (wells) and underground structures. Temperature anomalies are detected through numerical methods. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models are widely used in this field because they offer the opportunity to calculate the time evolution of the thermal plume produced by a heat pump. The use of neural networks is proposed to determine the time evolution of the groundwater temperature downstream of an installation as a function of the possible utilization profiles of the heat pump. The main advantage of neural network modeling is the possibility of evaluating a large number of scenarios in a very short time, which is very useful for the preliminary analysis of future multiple installations. The neural network is trained using the results from a CFD model (FEFLOW) applied to the installation at Politecnico di Torino (Italy) under several operating conditions. The final results appeared to be reliable and the temperature anomalies around the injection well appeared to be well predicted. 相似文献
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Enhancing a GIS Cellular Automata Model of Land Use Change: Bayesian Networks, Influence Diagrams and Causality 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Cellular Automata (CA) models at present do not adequately take into account the relationship and interactions between variables. However, land use change is influenced by multiple variables and their relationships. The objective of this study is to develop a novel CA model within a geographic information system (GIS) that consists of Bayesian Network (BN) and Influence Diagram (ID) sub‐models. Further, the proposed model is intended to simplify the definition of parameter values, transition rules and model structure. Multiple GIS layers provide inputs and the CA defines the transition rules by running the two sub‐models. In the BN sub‐model, land use drivers are encoded with conditional probabilities extracted from historical data to represent inter‐dependencies between the drivers. Using the ID sub‐model, the decision of changing from one land use state to another is made based on utility theory. The model was applied to simulate future land use changes in the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD), Canada from 2001 to 2031. The results indicate that the model is able to detect spatio‐temporal drivers and generate various scenarios of land use change making it a useful tool for exploring complex planning scenarios. 相似文献
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