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AN ANALYSIS OF THE WINTER EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS ON THE BACKGROUND OF CLIMATE WARMING IN SOUTHERN CHINA 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Based on daily precipitation and monthly temperature data in southern China, the winter
extreme precipitation changes in southern China have been investigated by using the Mann-Kendall test
and the return values of Generalized Pareto Distribution. The results show that a winter climate
catastrophe in southern China occurred around 1991, and the intensity of winter extreme precipitation was
strengthened after climate warming. The anomalous circulation characteristics before and after the climate
warming was further analyzed by using the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National
Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. It is found that the tropical winter monsoon over East
Asia is negatively correlated with the precipitation in southeastern China. After climate warming the
meridionality of the circulations in middle and high latitudes increases, which is favorable for the
southward movement of the cold air from the north. In addition, the increase of the temperature over
southern China may lead to the decrease of the differential heating between the continent and the ocean.
Consequently, the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is weakened, which is favorable for the transport
of the warm and humid air to southeastern China and the formation of the anomalous convergence of the
moisture flux, resulting in large precipitation over southeastern China. As a result, the interaction between
the anomalous circulations in the middle and high latitudes and lower latitudes after the climate warming
plays a major role in the increase of the winter precipitation intensity over southeastern China. 相似文献
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