The impact of surplus units from the first Kyoto period on achieving the reduction pledges of the Cancún Agreements     

Michel G. J. den Elzen  Malte Meinshausen  Andries F. Hof 《Climatic change》2012,114(2):401-408

Countries with emission levels below their emission allowances have surplus Assigned Amount Units (AAUs) or other emission credits. Under the Kyoto Protocol, these surplus credits may effectively be carried from the first to a following commitment period. In the climate negotiations, various rules for carry-over and sale of surplus allowances have been put forward. This paper analyses the effect of these options on the reduction pledges for 2020, taking into account the estimated credits from the Clean Development Mechanism, Joint Implementation projects, and land-use activities for the first commitment period. For current Kyoto Protocol rules of unlimited carry-over of surplus allowances and limited carry-over of other credits, the environmental effectiveness of reduction pledges could be seriously undermined. For the group of countries that showed a willingness to participate in a second commitment period, it could imply that instead of an aggregated 2020 target resulting from the pledges of 18 to 28?% below 1990 levels by 2020, their emissions could return to business-us-usual emission projections. For the EU, a 30?% target by 2020 could imply higher emissions compared to a 20?% target, if surplus allowances would be used for achieving the 30?% but not for the 20?% target. Restricting the use of Kyoto surplus units to domestic use only, would limit the problem, but still seriously undermine the effectiveness of 2020 reduction targets.  相似文献   

The role of the land use, land use change and forestry sector in achieving Annex I reduction pledges   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Giacomo Grassi  Michel G. J. den Elzen  Andries F. Hof  Roberto Pilli  Sandro Federici 《Climatic change》2012,115(3-4):873-881

Annex I Parties may receive credits or debits from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities, contributing to achieving individual emission reduction targets. In the Durban climate negotiations, Parties agreed new LULUCF accounting rules for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (CP2). By using these new rules, this paper presents key differences among Parties at the minimum (assuming no additional action) and potential (assuming additional actions) contribution of the forest-related LULUCF activities in achieving the pledges for 2020. Overall, the potential contribution of LULUCF is relatively modest (up to about 2 % of 1990 emissions) for the EU, the Annex I Parties likely joining the CP2, and for the Annex I Parties that joined the CP1 as a whole. However, for specific Parties, LULUCF can make a substantial contribution to achieving the pledges. For New Zealand, for instance, the potential contribution of future LULUCF credits may equal 33 % of its 1990 emission level. For Australia, the pledges are expressed relative to 2000 emission levels including LULUCF emissions. Given that LULUCF emissions have strongly declined between 1990 and 2000, and a further decline in foreseen by 2020 (based on Australia’s projections), the minimum contribution of LULUCF to meet the Australian pledges appears to be about 19 % and 7 % relative to its 1990 and 2000 emission level, respectively. A further 3 % potential contribution is estimated from additional actions.  相似文献   

Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?     

Anthony G. Patt  Detlef P. van Vuuren  Frans Berkhout  Asbjørn Aaheim  Andries F. Hof  Morna Isaac  Reinhard Mechler 《Climatic change》2010,99(3-4):383-402

Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up characteristics. Until this happens, we suggest, models may be too optimistic about the net benefits adaptation can provide, and therefore may underestimate the amount of mitigation they judge to be socially optimal. Under some conditions, better modeling of adaptation costs and benefits could have important implications for defining mitigation targets.  相似文献   

Understanding river dune splitting through flume experiments and analysis of a dune evolution model          下载免费PDF全文

Jord J. Warmink  C. Marjolein Dohmen‐Janssen  Joost Lansink  Suleyman Naqshband  Olav J. M. van Duin  Andries J. Paarlberg  Paul Termes  Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(9):1208-1220

Forecasts of water level during river floods require accurate predictions of the evolution of river dune dimensions, because the hydraulic roughness of the main channel is largely determined by the bed morphology. River dune dimensions are controlled by processes like merging and splitting of dunes. Particularly the process of dune splitting is still poorly understood and – as a result – not yet included in operational dune evolution models. In the current paper, the process of dune splitting is investigated by carrying out laboratory experiments and by means of a sensitivity analysis using a numerical dune evolution model. In the numerical model, we introduced superimposed TRIAS ripples (i.e. triangular asymmetric stoss side‐ripples) on the stoss sides of underlying dunes as soon as these stoss sides exceed a certain critical length. Simulations with the model including dune splitting showed that predictions of equilibrium dune characteristics were significantly improved compared to the model without dune splitting. As dune splitting is implemented in a parameterized way, the computational cost remains low which means that dune evolution can be calculated on the timescale of a flood wave. Subsequently, we used this model to study the mechanism of dune splitting. Literature showed that the initiation of a strong flow separation zone behind a superimposed bedform is one of the main mechanisms behind dune splitting. The flume experiments indicated that besides its height also the lee side slope of the superimposed bedform is an important factor to determine the strength of the flow separation zone and therefore is an important aspect in dune splitting. The sensitivity analysis of the dune evolution model showed that a minimum stoss side length was required to develop a strong flow separation zone. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Jason Lowe  Elke Stehfest  Laila Gohar  Andries F. Hof  Chris Hope  Rachel Warren  Malte Meinshausen  Gian-Kasper Plattner 《Climatic change》2011,104(2):255-285

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities.  相似文献   

RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2��C     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Elke Stehfest  Michel G. J. den Elzen  Tom Kram  Jasper van Vliet  Sebastiaan Deetman  Morna Isaac  Kees Klein Goldewijk  Andries Hof  Angelica Mendoza Beltran  Rineke Oostenrijk  Bas van Ruijven 《Climatic change》2011,109(1-2):95-116

The RCP2.6 emission and concentration pathway is representative of the literature on mitigation scenarios aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to 2°C. These scenarios form the low end of the scenario literature in terms of emissions and radiative forcing. They often show negative emissions from energy use in the second half of the 21st century. The RCP2.6 scenario is shown to be technically feasible in the IMAGE integrated assessment modeling framework from a medium emission baseline scenario, assuming full participation of all countries. Cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from 2010 to 2100 need to be reduced by 70% compared to a baseline scenario, requiring substantial changes in energy use and emissions of non-CO₂ gases. These measures (specifically the use of bio-energy and reforestation measures) also have clear consequences for global land use. Based on the RCP2.6 scenario, recommendations for further research on low emission scenarios have been formulated. These include the response of the climate system to a radiative forcing peak, the ability of society to achieve the required emission reduction rates given political and social inertia and the possibilities to further reduce emissions of non-CO₂ gases.  相似文献   

Climate impact of transportation A model comparison     

Bastien Girod  Detlef P. van Vuuren  Maria Grahn  Alban Kitous  Son H Kim  Page Kyle 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):595-608

Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO₂ emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO₂ emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology change is important for limiting energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, the study also shows that in order to stabilise or even decrease emissions radical changes would be required. While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of 200 USD/tCO₂ in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for further understanding long-term trends and uncertainty in future transport systems.  相似文献   

Seabirds in the North Sea Demobilized and Killed by Polyisobutylene (C₄H₈)_n (PIB)     

Kees C.J Camphuysen  Hein Barreveld  Gerhard Dahlmann  Jan Andries Van Franeker 《Marine pollution bulletin》1999,38(12):677-1176

This paper reports on a mass stranding of seabirds in the North Sea in December 1998. Hundreds of birds were washed ashore alive in Zeeland (SW Netherlands), covered in a whitish, sticky substance, and were transported to a rehabilitation centre. About 10 days later, more (dead) casualties washed ashore further to the north on Texel and along the mainland coast, again covered in a glue-like substance. Common guillemots Uria aalge, northern fulmars Fulmarus glacialis and common scoters Melanitta nigra were the most numerous birds affected in this incident. Both strandings were temporarily (10 days) and geographically separated (ca. 120 km apart), but were apparently caused by a single source of pollution. The meteorology at the time was consistent with the course of a single incident. At least 1100 seabirds were affected by this substance, soon identified as polyisobutylene (C₄H₈)_n. PIB is known as a non-toxic, non-aggressive substance. Volunteers cleaning the birds in the rehabilitation centre reported serious discomfort and dizziness and the soft parts of the PIB-affected birds found dead (bill, eye, throat, feet, webs) appeared to dissolve in a few days time. Both effects cannot be attributed to PIB, and are therefore unexplained. Although the dumping of PIB in the marine environment is not explicitly prohibited under MARPOL, the effects on wildlife observed are enough to plead for counter-measures.  相似文献   

Influence of a uniform coronal magnetic field on solar p modes: coupling to slow resonant MHD waves     

P. Vanlommel  A. Debosscher  J. Andries  M. Goossens 《Solar physics》2002,205(1):1-24

The influence of a constant coronal magnetic field on solar global oscillations is investigated for a simple planar equilibrium model. The model consists of an atmosphere with a constant horizontal magnetic field and a constant sound speed, on top of an adiabatic interior having a linear temperature profile. The focus is on the possible resonant coupling of global solar oscillation modes to local slow continuum modes of the atmosphere and the consequent damping of the global oscillations. In order to avoid Alfvén resonances, the analysis is restricted to propagation parallel to the coronal magnetic field. Parallel propagating oscillation modes in this equilibrium model have already been studied by Evans and Roberts (1990). However, they avoided the resonant coupling to slow continuum modes by a special choice of the temperature profile. The physical process of resonant absorption of the acoustic modes with frequency in the cusp continuum is mathematically completely described by the ideal MHD differential equations which for this particular equilibrium model reduce to the hypergeometric differential equation. The resonant layer is correctly dealt with in ideal MHD by a proper treatment of the logarithmical branch cut of the hypergeometric function. The result of the resonant coupling with cusp waves is twofold. The eigenfrequencies become complex and the real part of the frequency is shifted. The shift of the real part of the frequency is not negligible and within the limit of observational accuracy. This indicates that resonant interactions should definitely be taken into account when calculating the frequencies of the global solar oscillations.  相似文献   

The emissions gap between the Copenhagen pledges and the 2 °C climate goal: Options for closing and risks that could widen the gap     

Michel G.J. den Elzen  Andries F. HofMark Roelfsema 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(2):733-743

As part of the Copenhagen Accord, Annex I Parties (industrialised countries) and non-Annex I Parties (developing countries) have submitted reduction proposals (pledges) and mitigation actions to the UNFCCC secretariat. Our calculations show that if the current reduction offers of Annex I and non-Annex I countries are fully implemented, global greenhouse gas emissions could amount to 48.6-49.7 GtCO₂eq by 2020. Recent literature suggests that the emission level should be between 42 and 46 GtCO₂eq by 2020 to maintain a “medium” chance (50-66%) of meeting the 2 °C target. The emission gap is therefore 2.6-7.7 GtCO₂eq. We have identified a combined set of options, which could result in an additional 2.8 GtCO₂eq emission reduction. This would lead to an emission level just within the range needed. The options include reducing deforestation and emissions from bunker fuels, excluding emissions allowance increases from land use and forestry rules, and taking into account the national climate plans of China and India. However, there are also important risks that could widen the emissions gap, like lower reductions from countries with only a conditional pledge and the use of Kyoto and/or trading of new surplus emission allowances.  相似文献