Sensitivity evaluation of the flash flood warning system introduced to ungauged small mountainous basins in Korea     

YOO Chulsang  LEE Jinwook  CHANG Kwonhee  YANG Dongmin 《山地科学学报》2019,(5)

This study evaluates the uncertainty involved in the determination of the flash flood guidance(FFG) of the flash flood warning system(FFWS) for a small mountainous region(FFWS_MR)in Korea. The sensitivity is evaluated both at each step to determine the FFG and for all steps together. The results show that the relative difference of the FFG is about 50% of the current system, most of which involves the channel width. Especially, the use of some specific empirical equations to estimate the major parameters results in a considerable amount of the relative difference of the FFG. In addition, though only four basins were field-surveyed, it is found that the indirect estimation of the major parameters always introduces some amount of additional uncertainty. In conclusion, accurate estimation of the major parameters must be the most important procedure to derive an accurate FFG, among which the channel cross-section at the exit of the basin lies at the center.  相似文献   

Evaluation of subseasonal impacts of the MJO/BSISO in the East Asian extended summer     

Chang  Chueh-Hsin  Johnson  Nathaniel C.  Yoo  Changhyun 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(11):3553-3568

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)/Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) has been considered an important climate mode of variability on subseasonal timescales for East Asian summer. However, it is unclear how well the MJO/BSISO indices would serve as guidance for subseasonal forecasts. Using a probabilistic forecast model determined through multiple linear regression (MLR) with MJO, ENSO, and long-term trend as predictors, we examine lagged impacts of each predictor on East Asia extended summer (May–October) climate from 1982 to 2015. The forecast skills of surface air temperature (T2m) contributed by each predictor is evaluated for lead times out to five weeks. We also provide a systematic evaluation of three commonly used, real-time MJO/BSISO indices in the context of lagged temperature impacts over East Asia. It is found that the influence of the trend provides substantial summertime skill over broad regions of East Asia on subseasonal timescales. In contrast, the MJO influence shows regional as well as phase dependence outside the tropical band of the main action centers of the MJO convective anomalies. All three MJO/BSISO indices generate forecasts that yield high skill scores for week 1 forecasts. For some initial phases of the MJO/BSISO, skill reemerges over some regions for lead times of 3–5 weeks. This emergence indicates the existence of windows of opportunity for skillful subseasonal forecasts over East Asia in summer. We also explore the dynamics that contribute to the elevated skills at long lead times over Tibet and Taiwan–Philippine regions following the initial state of phases 7 and 5, respectively. The elevated skill is rooted in a wave train forced by the MJO convective heating over the Arabian Sea and feedbacks between MJO convection and SSTs in Taiwan–Philippine region. Two out of the three commonly used MJO/BSISO indices tend to identify MJO events that evolve consistently in time, allowing them to serve as reliable predictors for subseasonal forecasts for up to 5 weeks.

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SPARC Local Workshop on “WCRP Grand Challenges and Regional Climate Change”     

Joowan KIM  Seok-Woo SON  Hye-Jin KIM  Baek-Min KIM  Changhyun YOO 《大气科学进展》2018,35(6):624-627

正1.Overview SPARC(Stratosphere-Troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate)is one of the core projects of the World Climate Research Program(WCRP),coordinating international efforts to address relevant issues in climate and climate prediction via better understanding of the stratosphere-troposphere system.SPARC is a broad umbrella body that  相似文献   

The orbit,atmospheric dynamics,and initial mass of the Park Forest meteorite     

P. BROWN  D. PACK  W. N. EDWARDS  D. O. REVELLE  B. B. YOO  R. E. SPALDING  E. TAGLIAFERRI 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2004,39(11):1781-1796

Abstract— The fireball accompanying the Park Forest meteorite fall (L5) was recorded by ground‐based videographers, satellite systems, infrasound, seismic, and acoustic instruments. This meteorite shower produced at least 18 kg of recovered fragments on the ground (Simon et al. 2004). By combining the satellite trajectory solution with precise ground‐based video recording from a single site, we have measured the original entry velocity for the meteoroid to be 19.5 ± 0.3 km/s. The earliest video recording of the fireball was made near the altitude of 82 km. The slope of the trajectory was 29° from the vertical, with a radiant azimuth (astronomical) of 21° and a terminal height measured by infrared satellite systems of 18 km. The meteoroid's orbit has a relatively large semi‐major axis of 2.53 ± 0.19 AU, large aphelion of 4.26 ± 0.38 AU, and low inclination. The fireball reached a peak absolute visual magnitude of ?22, with three major framentation episodes at the altitudes of 37, 29, and 22 km. Acoustic recordings of the fireball airwave suggest that fragmentation was a dominant process in production of sound and that some major fragments from the fireball remained supersonic to heights as low as ?10 km. Seismic and acoustic recordings show evidence of fragmentation at 42, 36, 29, and 17 km. Examination of implied energies/initial masses from all techniques (satellite optical, infrasound, seismic, modeling) leads us to conclude that the most probable initial mass was (11 ± 3) × 10³ kg, corresponding to an original energy of ?0.5 kt TNT (2.1 times 10¹² J) and a diameter of 1.8 m. These values correspond to an integral bolometric efficiency of 7 ± 2%. Early fragmentation ram pressures of <1 MPa and major fragmentations occurring with ram pressures of 2–5 MPa suggest that meter‐class stony near‐Earth asteroids (NEAs) have tensile strengths more than an order of magnitude lower than have been measured for ordinary chondrites. One implication of this observation is that the rotation period for small, fast‐rotating NEAs is likely to be >30 seconds.  相似文献