This study analyzes the impact of anthropogenic climate change in the hydroclimatology of Senegal with a focus over the lake of Guiers basin for the middle (2041–2060) and late twenty-first century (2080–2099). To this end, high-resolution multimodel ensemble based on regional climate model experiments considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is used. The results indicate that an elevated warming, leading to substantial increase of atmospheric water demand, is projected over the whole of Senegal. In the Lake basin, these increases in potential evapotranspiration (PE) range between 10 and 25 % in the near future and for RCP4.5 while for the far future and RCP8.5, they exceed 50 %. In addition, mean precipitation unveils contrasting changes with wetter (10 to 25 % more) conditions by the middle of the century and drier conditions (more than 50 %) during the late twenty-first century. Such changes cause more/less evapotranspiration and soil moisture respectively during the two future periods. Furthermore, surface runoff shows a tendency to increase in most areas amid few locations including the Lake basin with substantial reduction. Finally, it is found that while semi-arid climates develop in the RCP4.5 scenario, generalized arid conditions prevail over the whole Senegal for RCP8.5. It is thus evident that these future climate conditions substantially threaten freshwater availability for the country and irrigated cropping over the Lake basin. Therefore, strong governmental politics are needed to help design response options to cope with the challenges posed by the projected climate change for the country.
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采用生态学单因子梯度试验方法,进行了白脊藤壶金星幼体的室内培养以及附着基、温度、盐度、幼体密度和幼体低温保存时间等因子分别对白脊藤壶金星幼体附着的影响的研究,结果表明,在培养水体为水温25℃、盐度30的膜滤海水,幼体培养密度为1只/ml,饵料为牟氏角毛藻,投饵量为(0.75-5)×10 5 cells/ml的培养条件下,白脊藤壶无节幼体在培养4天后即大部分顺利发育至金星幼体阶段,实现了白脊藤壶金星幼体在实验室内的大量培养.另一方面,实验结果还表明,在白脊藤壶金星幼体附着抑制实验中,玻璃培养皿和聚苯乙烯六孔板都可采用作为附着基,温度、盐度、幼体密度及幼体低温保存时间的适宜范围分别为20-35℃、15-45、1-20只/ml和0-8天.本研究结果揭示了白脊藤壶可作为筛选天然海洋防污产物的模型生物,并确定了其基础实验条件的适宜范围. 相似文献
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本文基于集中度和集中期的定义方法,利用1960~2007年的48年江淮地区站点的日平均温度资料和累积频率的阈值统计方法,分析梅雨期江淮地区极端高温事件的非均匀分布特征.结果表明,集中度和集中期的方法能够定量地表征梅雨期江淮地区极端高温事件的非均匀分布特征.集中期的异常型为全场一致和南北异常型,集中度的异常分布主要为南北异常和东西异常.进一步比较集中度和集中期异常与同期环流系统的配置关系得知,当集中期南北异常变化时,在高纬度的北太平洋区域出现一对正负的异常模态,且随高度增加而增强,为相当正压结构.海温的异常集中在北太平洋的北美沿岸的显著负异常中心.当集中度为东西异常时,主要环流异常型为约在160°W左右出现 "+ - + -" 的200 hPa纬向西风异常波列形式从低纬度到高纬度地区传播以及与ENSO的显著负相关. 相似文献
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南海海温异常影响南海夏季风的数值模拟研究 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
采用p－σ九层区域气候模式(p－σRCM9）模拟并研究了南海海温异常对南海夏季风的影响, 数值模拟结果表明, 5月份的南海海温对南海夏季风的爆发日期起关键作用: 5月份南海海温持续增温 (降温）, 南海夏季风爆发日期偏早 (偏晚）。南海夏季风爆发后, 南海异常增温, 同期的南海夏季风增强, 而后期的南海夏季风减弱; 南海异常降温, 则与之相反。机制分析表明, 南海海温正(负)异常增强(减弱)了海面与行星边界层之间的能量交换, 主要是潜热通量的输送, 并在大气中通过积云对流加热率的变化来影响对流层热量的分布, 进而引起对流层中低层辐合和高层辐散的变化, 然后使得环流场和风场作出相应地调整, 环流场和风场又会反过来影响积云对流加热率的变化, 这是一个正反馈过程。在5月份南海增温(降温)强迫下, 5月份南海地区的对流活动加强(减弱）, 使得对流层低层副热带高压提前(延后)撤出南海, 从而有利于南海夏季风爆发偏早(晚）。在南海海温异常强迫下, 中国东南部和南海地区的降水率异常主要是由积云对流所产生的降水率异常引起。 相似文献
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Increasing heavy concentrated Meiyu precipitation over the Yangtze–Huaihe river valley (YHRV) during recent years has been previously reported. In fact, the concentrated Meiyu rainfall occurring in a small region or a certain period easily results in floods, thus it is worthy to analyze the heterogeneity of Meiyu rainfall over YHRV. In this study, we use both of precipitation concentration period (PCP) and precipitation concentration degree (PCD) based on vector analysis to identify the heterogeneity of Meiyu rainfall over YHRV. On the climatological mean, the concentrated heavy precipitation occurs in late summer over the Yangtze River Delta, where is usually suffered by floods. The dominant two patterns of PCP and PCD variations are northeast–southwest dipole pattern, homogeneous anomalies and homogeneous variation, north–south dipole pattern, respectively. In addition, the relationship on heterogeneity of Meiyu rainfall with sea surface temperature (SST) and the low level summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) are investigated. Two key regions of SST activities are found: Bay of Bengal (BOB) and Equatorial eastern Pacific. From BOB, more abundant water vapor has been brought. On the El Niño-Southern Oscillation variation, it is closely relative with PCD–PC1 during the decaying phase of El Niño, while PCP–PC2 is accompanied with developing phase of La Nina events, suggesting a negative feedback of PCP–PC2 on the Niño3.4 SST, and changes to positive during the later winter. On the ISO activities, the robust regions are located over the high-latitude areas, which are closely related with northeastern cold vortex. The north “cold and dry” air southwardly invaded with the lower-level strong warm air in the rainy area, and easily formed an “upper-wet and lower-dry” unstable layer. Under the trigger of the upward motion, the concentrated heavy rainfall easily occurred over YHRV. In all, the homogeneity variation of the concentrated heavy precipitation over YHRV is closely associated with both of the heating forcing (SST) and dynamical atmospheric forcing (low-level ISO). 相似文献
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将新的大尺度凝结水在降落过程中蒸发量计算的方案引入p-σ混合坐标系初始方程九层模式中, 运用1979～1995年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料月平均场作为初始场和侧边界强迫, 模拟得到1月和7月气候特征, 并用F检验和t检验方法检验了原大尺度凝结方案与新方案模拟结果差异的显著性.结果表明, 在大尺度凝结降水中出现蒸发的大部分地区为我国东部和南部的沿海地区以及相应的海洋上.模拟的气候特征的差异主要集中在我国东部以及东南沿海一带的大陆和海洋, 其中在总降水场的模拟结果中, 较好地消除了原模式在华北地区的虚假大值区.检验结果表明, 7月的差异比1月的显著, 而且各要素平均值的差异不大, 方差的差异比较显著. 相似文献
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分块地形坐标大气环流模式框架的计算稳定性及数值试验 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
用数值试验方法讨论了分块地形η坐标大气环流模式动力框架的计算稳定性; 采用实际初始场, 该框架能够长期稳定地积分.在积分前100d内总有效能量变化很小, 总质量守恒、各物理量场的数值和波形都得到很好保持, 这表明该框架稳定性好.在分析了该框架的积分结果后可知其合乎物理事实, 与IAP 2.0的动力框架相比, 能更好地反映出大地形的环流形势, 这说明有大地形时采用分块地形η坐标要较σ坐标好.另外, 还对青藏高原等大地形的纯机械强迫作了数值试验, 得到了地形强迫平均槽脊的分布特征, 给出了地形纯机械强迫造成的准定常行星波的图像. 这些工作表明采用分块地形η坐标处理大地形是合理可行的. 相似文献
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东海沿岸海域表层海水酸化趋势及影响因素研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据2002—2011年东海沿岸海域(4个区域,16个站位)春、夏、秋三个季节的表层海水pH、温度、盐度和叶绿素a等监测资料,对该海域pH的年际时空变化及其影响因素进行了探讨。结果表明,东海沿岸海域表层海水十年间pH变化趋势存在明显的季节和区域差异,共有10个站点表层海水pH呈下降趋势,主要集中于长江口和杭州湾海域,而三门湾和椒江口海域的酸化则不明显。环境因子相关性分析显示,杭州湾海域夏季表层海水的pH与叶绿素a浓度呈极显著正相关,其它海域两者间未显示出显著的相关性;杭州湾海域的pH与海表温度也存在显著的相关性,但季节不同趋势不同,呈现出春季正相关而夏季负相关的特征;pH与盐度的关系在各海域表现得更加明显,长江口、杭州湾和三门湾三个调查海区海水的pH变化与盐度都存在显著的正相关。总之,在10年的连续监测内东海沿岸海域存在一定程度的酸化趋势,其影响机制还需进一步研究。 相似文献
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Zhu Jian Huang Dan-Qing Yan Pei-Wen Huang Ying Kuang Xue-Yuan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(1-2):655-665
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