Problems of modeling climate and climate change     

V. P. Dymnikov  V. N. Lykosov  E. M. Volodin 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2006,42(5):568-585

The properties of the climate system as a physical object are considered. Major concepts of the mathematical theory of climate are stated, and the problems of constructing mathematical climate models are discussed. The results of reproducing the present-day climate are analyzed, and the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in the content of greenhouse gases is considered. Major directions are formulated in which the development of the mathematical theory of climate and of modeling climate and climate change is possible.  相似文献   

Magma dynamics at the base of an evolving mafic magma chamber: Incompatible element evidence from the Partridge River intrusion, Duluth Complex, Minnesota, USA     

Christopher I. Chalokwu  Alexei A. Ariskin  Evgeny V. Koptev-Dvornikov 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1996,60(24):4997-5011

A characteristic feature of the Partridge River intrusion of the Keweenawan Duluth Complex is the approximately fivefold to ninefold increase in the concentrations of incompatible elements in the lower zone compared with cumulates stratigraphically higher. The concentrations of incompatible elements decrease from the lower zone upward to steady state values, which is ascribed to variations in the proportions of trapped liquid rather than variable degrees of fractional crystallization of a single parental magma. The calculated average composition of trapped liquid using our algorithm is similar to typical Keweenawan low-alumina, high Ti---P basalts associated with the Duluth Complex but is different from the leading edge ferrodioritic liquid quenched in the chilled margin of the intrusion. This difference suggests that the chilled margin does not represent the original (parental) magma composition from which the whole intrusion solidified, and that the enrichment of incompatible elements may be related to the local flotation of magmatic suspensions. To test the latter hypothesis numerically, we have used heat-mass transfer models, assuming a sheet-like magma chamber, to calculate the parameters of the model that best reproduce the observed distribution of incompatible elements in a mush zone at the base of the Partridge River intrusion. The results indicate that a mush zone enriched in the incompatible elements is produced if the velocity of movement of the lower solidification front into the magma body was less than the floating velocity of the bulk crystal mush. The dynamic parameters that best reproduce the observed distribution of incompatible elements include a magma emplacement pressure of 2 kbar, critical crystallinities of 50–68% in the mush zone from which the liquid is being expelled, and an emplacement temperature of 1160°C for the initial magma.  相似文献   

Applying the energy- and water balance model for incorporation of the cryospheric component into a climate model. Part II. Modeled mass balance on the green land ice sheet surface     

O. O. Rybak  E. M. Volodin  A. P. Nevecherya  P. A. Morozova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2016,41(6):379-387

The Greenland ice sheet is a very important potential source of fresh water inflow to the World Ocean under warming climate conditions. Apparently, it was the same during the Last Interglacial 130-115 thousand years ago. In order to quantify input of the Greenland ice sheet to the rise of the global mean sea level in the past or in the future, we include a surface mass balance model block into the Earth System Model. The computational algorithm is based on the calculation of energy balance on the ice sheet surface. The key tuning parameter of the model is the daily amplitude of air surface temperature. It defines the area and the rate of snow or ice melting. The range of possible values of this parameter is determined during a series of numerical experiments. High sensitivity of meltwater runoff volume to surface air temperature amplitude is revealed.  相似文献   

Analysis of the reproduction of dynamic processes in the stratosphere using the climate model of the institute of numerical mathematics,Russian academy of sciences     

P. N. Vargin  E. M. Volodin 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2016,52(1):1-15

The reproduction of dynamic processes in the stratosphere at extratropical latitudes is considered in calculations of the atmospheric module of the global climate model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, with an upper boundary of 0.2 hPa (~60 km) for the period from 1979 to 2008 in comparison with the data observational. Changes in temperature, zonal wind, activity of planetary waves, heat fluxes in the lower stratosphere, and sudden stratospheric warmings with the displacement and splitting of the polar vortex, as well as the distribution of associated circulation anomalies in the troposphere, are analyzed.  相似文献   

Generation of the low-frequency branch of acoustic emission in affected rocks     

I. Ya. Chebotareva  I. A. Volodin  V. V. Dryagin 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2016,468(1):511-513

As follows from data analysis of physical modeling, the reaction of acoustic background oscillations to an external impact is well-defined under triaxial loading of a dry sandstone core in the low-frequency range (1–100 Hz). This phenomenon is explained by the generation of a low-frequency constituent of acoustic emission. A high correlation of oscillation dynamics (Klimontovich S entropy) is observed at frequencies of tens of hertz and tens of kilohertz in the absence of such a correlation in the intermediate frequency range; a synchronous increase in the oscillation level is also observed at low and high frequencies.  相似文献   

俄罗斯-蒙古地学断面地壳模型的地质-地球物理资料综合研究     

Evgeny Kh. TURUTANOV  Evgeny V. SKLYAROV  Valentina V. MORDVINOVA  Anatoly M. MAZUKABZOV  Viktor S. KANAYKIN 《地学前缘》2021,28(5):260-282

地学断面是指地壳的垂直剖面,主要通过对地质和地球物理资料的综合分析来揭示构造带的性质及其空间关系。横断面的研究所采用的数据基本包括100 km宽区域地质图、上地壳的地质剖面图、重磁图(沿横断面的重磁剖面图)以及地壳的地震波速度、密度和其他地球物理属性的剖面图。这些数据被用于构建综合的数据剖面图(结果图),以展示各种地球动力学条件下(裂谷、海洋、碰撞带、造山盆地、大陆地台和岩浆弧,包括安第斯岛弧、活动大陆边缘、海沟、弧前和弧后盆地)的特定的岩石组构。本项目的研究目标是根据研究区现存的地质和地球物理数据的综合解释,统一图例,建立研究区深部剖面,以确定地体的空间关系及其在板块构造方面的地球动力学性质。 前人已分别对东西伯利亚南部和蒙古境内的多个地体进行了构造划分,并对它们的地球动力学性质和时空关系进行了分析。研究结果显示该系列地体为早古生代、中晚古生代和晚古生代—早中生代的岛弧和微大陆。此外,研究还识别出了中—晚古生代和晚古生代—早中生代安第斯型活动大陆边缘、晚古生代—早中生代被动大陆边缘和早白垩世裂谷。与岛弧和安第斯型活动大陆边缘相关的岩体被推覆至相邻大陆和微陆块上,部分推覆宽度可达150 km。目前已开展泥盆纪到晚侏罗世时期蒙古-鄂霍次克海地区的古地球动力学重建。 “非地槽”型花岗岩类岩浆作用在板块构造方面找到了直接且合理的解释,其中泥盆纪—石炭纪和二叠纪—三叠纪岩浆作用区域对应于安第斯型活动大陆边缘,中—晚侏罗世岩浆作用则与西伯利亚/蒙古-中国大陆板块碰撞有关。碰撞岩浆作用中亚碱性(地幔)元素的存在及其所在的构造区域在很大程度可以说明蒙古-鄂霍次克海闭合后,巨厚大陆岩石圈下曾经发生过持续的大洋裂谷活动(地幔热点)。在早白垩世时期,大陆裂谷活动影响到了同一时期正在发生的大陆汇聚作用。 西伯利亚南部边界大部分具有安第斯型活动大陆边缘性质,这也是蒙古—鄂霍次克缝合线沿线蛇绿岩数量较少的原因。因为当汇聚大陆一个具有安第斯类型的活动边缘,而另一个具有被动边缘时,前者的大陆地壳会最终逆冲到后者之上,并因此破坏掉先前出露的蛇绿杂岩体。部分被破坏的蛇绿岩块是俯冲带保留下来的海山残余,其可能成为增生-俯冲楔体的混沌复合体的一部分。然而,由于快速俯冲作用,这种楔形体在晚二叠世—早侏罗世的积累并不是西伯利亚活动边缘的典型特征。 沿地学断面综合的地质和地球物理资料分析表明,亚洲大陆是在显生宙时期由部分前寒武纪微陆块构造拼贴而成的。前寒武纪地块间存在不同宽度的已变形且剥蚀强烈的显生宙火山弧,它们也被归类为特定地体。  相似文献   

Simulating present-day climate with the INMCM4.0 coupled model of the atmospheric and oceanic general circulations   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

E. M. Volodin  N. A. Dianskii  A. V. Gusev 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2010,46(4):414-431

The INMCM3.0 climate model has formed the basis for the development of a new climate-model version: the INMCM4.0. It differs from the previous version in that there is an increase in its spatial resolution and some changes in the formulation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. A numerical experiment was conducted on the basis of this new version to simulate the present-day climate. The model data were compared with observational data and the INMCM3.0 model data. It is shown that the new model adequately reproduces the most significant features of the observed atmospheric and oceanic climate. This new model is ready to participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the results of which are to be used in preparing the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  相似文献   

Detrital zircon geochronology of Palaeozoic Novaya Zemlya – a key to understanding the basement of the Barents Shelf     

Henning Lorenz  David G. Gee  Evgeny Korago  Galina Kovaleva  William C. McClelland  Jane A. Gilotti  Dirk Frei 《地学学报》2013,25(6):496-503

The Novaya Zemlya fold‐and‐thrust‐belt is the northern continuation of the late Palaeozoic Uralide Orogen. Little is known about its deeper structure and the basement history of the adjacent Barents and Kara shelves. Based on geological evidence and detrital zircon analysis of 28 samples from the northeastern and stratigraphically deepest part of the archipelago, we demonstrate that Cambro‐Ordovician turbidite‐dominated deposition was almost exclusively sourced from rocks consolidated during the Timanian orogeny (Timanian basement). A profound change in provenance occurred near the end of the Ordovician. Over 90% of the zircons from Silurian and about 80% from Devonian strata have ages characteristic of the Sveconorwegian Orogen, implying uplift of these rocks in the vicinity of Novaya Zemlya. The presence of Sveconorwegian and Grenvillian rocks in the high Arctic suggests revision of recent reconstructions of the Rodinia supercontinent, its break‐up and subsequent Caledonian orogeny.  相似文献   

Relationships between interannual variations in stratospheric warmings, tropospheric circulation, and sea surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere     

E. A. Jadin  Yu. A. Zyulyaeva  E. M. Volodin 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2008,44(5):594-605

The leading modes of interannual and long-term variations in the stratospheric and tropospheric circulation and total ozone (TOMS data) and their relations to Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are investigated using the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the winter months of 1958–2003. Strong correlations are indicated between the interannual total ozone variations over Labrador and the North Atlantic and changes in the stratospheric polar vortex. The onset of major stratospheric warmings is connected not only with the strengthening of westerlies at the 500-hPa level in the midlatitude Atlantic, but also with the weakening of tropospheric winds over the north of eastern Siberia and strengthening over the Far East. In years with major stratospheric warmings, abnormally cold winters are observed in Eurasia, especially in eastern Siberia and northeastern China. The calculated simultaneous (with no time lags) correlations of the stratospheric circulation changes with El Niño/La Niña events give evidence of low correlations between the tropical Pacific SST anomalies and the stratospheric dynamics in the Arctic. However, there are high correlations of the extratropical Pacific and Atlantic SST anomalies with interannual tropospheric and stratospheric circulation variations, the stratospheric dynamics being more strongly connected with Pacific SST than with Atlantic SST anomalies. The interannual changes in tropospheric circulation are coupled to SST anomalies in both the Pacific and the Atlantic. Mechanisms of long-term changes in the interactive ocean-atmosphere-ozone layer system are discussed.  相似文献   

Simulation of the quasi-biennial oscillations of the zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere: Part II. Atmospheric general circulation models     

D. V. Kulyamin  E. M. Volodin  V. P. Dymnikov 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2009,45(1):37-54

The problem of simulating quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) of zonal velocity in the equatorial stratosphere in atmospheric general circulation models is considered. In accordance with the results from Part I of this study on the basis of the models developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), the possibility of implementing (in these models) mechanisms of QBO excitation through both the interaction of planetary waves with the mean flow and breaking of short gravity waves is investigated. A new high-resolution 2° × 2.5° × 80 version of the INM RAS model is designed, a climate simulation with the two 2° × 2.5° × 39 and 2° × 2.5° × 80 versions of the INM RAS model is briefly described, results of spectral analysis of equatorial wave activity are presented, and the QBO formation processes in these models are considered in detail. For the new 2° × 2.5° × 80 model, realistic QBOs of zonal wind are obtained as the result of the action of both mechanisms.  相似文献