Seasonally asymmetric transition of the Asian monsoon in response to ice age boundary conditions     

Hiroaki Ueda  Harumitsu Kuroki  Masamichi Ohba  Youichi Kamae 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(11-12):2167-2179

Modulation of a monsoon under glacial forcing is examined using an atmosphere?Cocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM) following the specifications established by Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2) to understand the air?Csea?Cland interaction under different climate forcing. Several sensitivity experiments are performed in response to individual changes in the continental ice sheet, orbital parameters, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21?ka) to evaluate the driving mechanisms for the anomalous seasonal evolution of the monsoon. Comparison of the model results in the LGM with the pre-industrial (PI) simulation shows that the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are characterized by enhancement of pre-monsoon convection despite a drop in the SST encompassing the globe, while the rainfall is considerably suppressed in the subsequent monsoon period. In the LGM winter relative to the PI, anomalies in the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) between the Asian continents minus the tropical oceans become positive and are consistent with the intensified pre-monsoon circulation. The enhanced MTG anomalies can be explained by a decrease in the condensation heating relevant to the suppressed tropical convection as well as positive insolation anomalies in the higher latitude, showing an opposing view to a warmer future climate. It is also evident that a latitudinal gradient in the SST across the equator plays an important role in the enhancement of pre-monsoon rainfall. As for the summer, the sensitivity experiments imply that two ice sheets over the northern hemisphere cools the air temperature over the Asian continent, which is consistent with the reduction of MTG involved in the attenuated monsoon. The surplus pre-monsoon convection causes a decrease in the SST through increased heat loss from the ocean surface; in other words, negative ocean feedback is also responsible for the subsequent weakening of summer convection.  相似文献   

Strain and stress changes in the Tokai region of central Japan expected from a 3D subduction model     

Hidekuni Kuroki  Hidemi M ItoAkio Yoshida 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》2003,135(4):231-252

Using a 3D simulation model with a rate- and state-dependent friction law, Kuroki et al. (2002) discussed a process of a hypothetical great earthquake in the Tokai region, where the Philippine Sea plate subducts beneath the Eurasian plate. One of the main concerns was characteristic changes in volumetric strain and displacement on the ground surface which are caused by the evolution of the coupling between the two plates, i.e. evolution of a strongly coupled region between the plates which results in a preslip of the earthquake.In the present paper we discuss other observable phenomena which might help us to identify the stage of the coupling. The preslip of the earthquake could be more effectively detected by using full information about the change of strain rather than volumetric strain alone; the change in rotation angle of principal strain axes should amount to several tens of degrees while the order of the change in volumetric strain is 10⁻⁸ to 10⁻⁷ for 1 day before the earthquake. The spatial pattern of the displacement field on the ground surface provides us with information on the intermediate-term precursory changes in the plate coupling. Information given by micro-earthquakes is less direct. The seismicity should change considerably when a highly shear-stressed ring on the plate interface passes nearby, and ups and downs of seismicity rate will be estimated by Coulomb failure stress. On the other hand, focal mechanisms are rather insensitive to the progress of plate subduction. The changes may be not significant even at the time of the preslip. The interplate coupling yields a stress field that should produce reverse fault type mechanisms, but the stress field is modulated by a curved shape of the plate interface. Superposition of a regional tectonic stress to this field explains observed spatial distribution of focal mechanisms in the Tokai region which involve large strike-slip components.  相似文献