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The conformal-cubic atmospheric model, a variable-resolution global model, is applied at high spatial resolution to perform simulations of present-day and future climate over southern Africa and over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The model is forced with the bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice of six coupled global climate models that contributed to Assessment Report 4 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. All six simulations are for the period 1961–2100, under the A2 emission scenario. Projections for the latter part of the 21st century indicate a decrease in the occurrence of tropical cyclones over the Southwest Indian Ocean adjacent to southern Africa, as well as a northward shift in the preferred landfall position of these systems over the southern African subcontinent. A concurrent increase in January to March rainfall is projected for northern Mozambique and southern Tanzania, with decreases projected further south over semi-arid areas such as the Limpopo River Basin where these systems make an important contribution as main cause of widespread heavy rainfall. It is shown that the projected changes in tropical cyclone attributes and regional rainfall occur in relation to changes in larger scale atmospheric temperature, pressure and wind profiles of the southern African region and adjacent oceans. 相似文献
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Hα observations, using the Multichannel Subtractive Double Pass (MSDP) spectrograph operating on the Meudon Solar Tower, have been made of an active region filament which undergoes a ‘disparition brusque’. The period of observation was from 10 ∶ 45 to 13 ∶ 30 UT on 22 June, 1981. Velocity and intensity fluctuations in Hα were measured. The proper motions of ejecta were followed allowing their trajectories and vector velocities to be determined. To model the dynamics of ejecta several models using thermal or magnetic driving forces are compared. The most promising model explains the motion as the consequence of magnetic stresses acting on an isolated magnetized plasmoïd in a diverging flux tube. 相似文献
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Landman Willem A. Engelbrecht Francois Hewitson Bruce Malherbe Johan van der Merwe Jacobus 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,132(3-4):1153-1163
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Multi-decadal regional projections of future climate change are introduced into a linear statistical model in order to produce an ensemble of austral... 相似文献
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Malherbe J. M. Schmieder B. Mein P. Mein N. Van Drielgesztelyi L. Von Uexküll M. 《Solar physics》1998,180(1-2):265-284
Using multi-wavelength observations obtained with the Tenerife telescopes (VTT and GCT) and with the Yohkoh satellite, we observed new emerging flux with an associated arch filament system (AFS) in the chromosphere and bright X-ray loops in the corona. We observed the change of connectivity of the X-ray loop footpoints which may be at the origin of the occurrence of a subflare. Densities, gas and magnetic pressures of cold AFS and hot loops were derived and discussed. The extrapolation of the photospheric magnetic field observed with the GCT in a linear force-free field assumption (constant ) shows that this region, in spite of having roughly a global potential configuration, consists of two systems of arch filaments. We found these two systems best fitted with two sheared magnetic topologies of opposite values of ± 0.1 Mm-1 相似文献
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Numerical data processing is applied to the high-resolution images-of the solar corona obtained with the 20 cm coronagraph of the Pic du Midi observatory. Two complementary methods are proposed to solve some classical difficulties usually met in the morphological analysis of the solar corona, namely the brightness gradient in the inner and medium corona, the low contrast of numerous emissive regions and the superimposition along the line of sight of different structures. The methods which are described in this paper may help to resolve the complex coronal active regions into fine structures which is now necessary to interpret all observed corona data. 相似文献
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H observations, using the Multichannel Subtractive Double Pass (MSDP) spectrograph operating on the Meudon Solar Tower, have been made of an active region filament which undergoes a disparition brusque. The period of observation was from 10 45 to 13 30 UT on 22 June, 1981. Velocity and intensity fluctuations in H were measured. The proper motions of ejecta were followed allowing their trajectories and vector velocities to be determined. To model the dynamics of ejecta several models using thermal or magnetic driving forces are compared. The most promising model explains the motion as the consequence of magnetic stresses acting on an isolated magnetized plasmoïd in a diverging flux tube. 相似文献
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The Multichannel Subtractive Double Pass spectrograph (MSDP) is designed to observe line profiles in a 2D field of view with a good spatial and temporal resolution. In order to deal with this unique opportunity, we introduce a new method for fitting the hydrogen H line formed in prominences and deriving various plasma parameters from line profile observations. A quiescent prominence was observed on 5 June 1996, at the Pic du Midi during an international campaign between 09:30 UT and 11:00 UT with the MSDP spectrograph operating in H at the Turret Dome. Using the new fitting method, we show that the temperature, column density of hydrogen atoms and microturbulent velocity of the prominence are respectively about 8500 K, 1.4×1012 cm–2, and 10 to 20 km s–1. The electron density of the prominence is about 1.8×1010 cm–3. 相似文献
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Brigitte Schmieder Nicole Mein Yuanyong Deng Cristiana Dumitrache Jean-Marie Malherbe Joachim Staiger E. E. Deluca 《Solar physics》2004,223(1):119-141
This paper is focused on the formation of two filaments in a complex center of decaying active regions (AR 8329 and AR 8326), located in the northern hemisphere. The observations were obtained in Hα by the Multi-channel Subtractive Double Pass spectrograph (MSDP mounted on the German telescope VTT in Tenerife) and EUV lines with TRACE (Transition Region And Corona Explorer). High Doppler shifts are found to be related to the ends of filament segments where canceling magnetic fields are also located (as seen on magnetograms from Big Bear Solar Observatory). At these locations, velocities along the line of sight, derived by using a cloud model method reach −20 km s−1, the segments of filaments merge and frequently a time-related sub-flare is observed by TRACE. The chirality of the filament segments has been determined by different methods: the segments of dextral chirality join together and form a long dextral filament, and a single filament of sinistral chirality forms end to end with the dextral filament but does not merge with it. Assuming a model of twisted flux tube for filament material, we suggest that the dextral filament has negative helicity and a relationship between its formation and the close by sunspot with the same sign of helicity. 相似文献