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Marius-Victor Birsan Alexandru Dumitrescu Dana Magdalena Micu Sorin Cheval 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):1899-1910
The Carpathian Mountains region cover areas from seven countries of central and southeastern Europe, the mountain chain having major regional influences on the temperate climate, specific to latitudes between 43°N and 49°N. In order to identify changes in the annual temperature extremes, the Mann–Kendall nonparametric trend test has been applied to several thermal indices, recommended by the expert team on climate change detection and indices. The indices were computed from gridded daily datasets of minimum and maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km), available online within the framework of the project CarpatClim (climate of the Carpathian region) for the period 1961–2010. The results show decreasing trends in cold-related indices, especially in the number of frost days, and increasing trends in warm-related ones. The trend patterns are consistent over the region, i.e., there are no mixed trends for a given index. Regional differences in climate extreme trends within the Carpathian region are related to altitude, rather than latitude. The number of summer days is increasing over the entire area, while the number of tropical nights presents upward trends mainly at lower elevations. The Warm Spell Duration Index presents upward trends over 60 % of the region. The (annual) East Atlantic pattern shows strong correlations with the warm-related indices. Our results are in agreement with previous temperature-related studies in the region. 相似文献
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Papathoma-Koehle Maria Promper Catrin Bojariu Roxana Cica Roxana Sik Andr&#;s Perge Kinga L&#;szl&#; Peter Czikora Erika Bal&#;zs Dumitrescu Alexandru Turcus Cosmin Birsan Marius-Victor Velea Liliana Glade Thomas 《Natural Hazards》2016,81(1):89-115
This paper reports on a quantitative estimation of the risk to residents at the toe of Mount Albino, a carbonatic relief covered by shallow deposits of pyroclastic soils, which threatens the municipality of Nocera Inferiore (southern Italy). The quantitative risk analysis (QRA) focuses on one type of mass transport phenomena typical for the context at hand, namely the hyperconcentrated flows. The methodological approach includes three main steps: hazard analysis, consequence analysis and risk estimation. Based on historical incident data, the hazard analysis makes use of a high-resolution digital terrain model and advanced models that incorporate relevant geological and geotechnical input data collected via in situ investigations and laboratory tests. The consequence analysis takes into account information on the exposed persons (age, gender) and their vulnerability. The estimated risk to life is calculated at the individual level (risk to the average and most exposed person). The reported procedure is one of the first QRA’s applications to instabilities which potentially affect natural slopes in Italy, and it was successfully used as technical basis for a public participatory process in Nocera Inferiore, designed and developed to support decisions about risk mitigation measures. 相似文献
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Antennas that are located on or near the boundary between two electrically different media, such as air and earth, or seawater and rock, are used as prospective tools for remote sensing and geophysical exploration. As an example, this letter examines the electromagnetic (EM) response of a metallic object that is submerged in a conducting layer of seawater that is situated between an infinite half-space of air and a seabed of lower electrical conductivity. When the source and the object are at some distance away in the water, the primary EM propagation mode is on the interfaces because the surface waves are less attenuated than those following the direct or reflected propagation paths. The simulation tool that predicts the performances of the EM detection system uses the method-of-moments integral equation technique. The method is validated and applied to calculate the scattered fields from a submerged perfectly conducting cylinder. The numerical results are then compared with experimental data that are obtained by towing a steel cylinder through an impressed field that is produced by a horizontal electric source. 相似文献
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Mean daily streamflow records from 44 river basins in Romania with an undisturbed runoff regime have been analyzed for trends with the nonparametric Mann‐Kendall test for two periods of study: 1961–2009 (25 stations) and 1975–2009 (44 stations). The statistical significance of trends was tested for each station on an annual and seasonal basis, for different streamflow quantiles. In order to account for the presence of serial correlation that might lead to an erroneous rejection of the null hypothesis, a trend‐free prewhitening was applied to the original data series. The regional field significance of trends is tested by a bootstrap procedure. Changes in the streamflow regime in Romania are demonstrated. The main identified trends are an increase in winter and autumn streamflow since 1961 and a decrease in summer flow since 1975. The streamflow trends are well explained by recent changes in temperature and precipitation that occurred in the last 50 years. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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