Multicomponent magnetizations in the Foyers Old Red Sandstone (northern Scotland) and their bearing on lateral displacements along the Great Glen Fault   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

K. M. Storetvedt  E. Tveit  E. R. Deutsch  G. S. Murthy 《Geophysical Journal International》1990,102(1):151-163

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Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions     

Olena Babak  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Computational Geosciences》2008,12(4):503-512

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.  相似文献   

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98     

Jochen Schwarz  Mathias Raschke  Holger Maiwald 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):259-282

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.  相似文献   

Optimization of SAGD Well Elevation     

Jason A. McLennan  Weishan Ren  Oy Leuangthong  C. V. Deutsch 《Natural Resources Research》2006,15(2):119-127

The application of steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) to recover heavy oil sands is becoming increasingly important in the northern Alberta McMurray Formation because of the vast resources/reserves accessible with this mechanism. Selecting the stratigraphic elevations of SAGD well pairs is a vital decision for reservoir evaluation and planning. The inherent uncertainty in the distribution of geological variables significantly influences this decision. Geostatistical simulation is used to capture geological uncertainty, which is used can be transformed into a distribution of the best possible well pair elevations. A simple exhaustive calculation scheme is used to determine the optimum stratigraphic location of a SAGD well pair where the recovery R is maximized. There are three basic steps to the methodology: (1) model the uncertainty in the top continuous bitumen (TCB) and bottom continuous bitumen (BCB) surfaces, (2) calculate the recovery at all possible elevation increments within the TCB and BCB interval, and (3) identify the elevation that maximizes R. This is repeated for multiple TCB/BCB pairs of surfaces to assess uncertainty. The methodology is described and implemented on a subset of data from the Athabasca Oilsands in Fort McMurray, Alberta.  相似文献   

Size Scaling of Cross Correlation Between Multiple Variables     

Oz  Bora  Deutsch  Clayton V. 《Natural Resources Research》2002,11(1):1-18

Reservoir models have large uncertainty because of spatial variability and limited sample data. The ultimate aim is to use simultaneously all available data sources to reduce uncertainty and provide reliable reservoir models for resource assessment and flow simulation. Seismic impedance or some other attribute provides a key source of data for reservoir modeling. These seismic data are at a coarser scale than the hard well data and it not an exact measurement of facies proportions or porosity. A requirement for data integration is the cross-covariance between the well and seismic data.The size-scaling behavior of the cross correlation for different measurement scales was nvestigated. The size-scaling relationship is derived theoretically and validated by numerical studies (including an example with real data). The limit properties of the cross-correlation coefficient when the averaging volume becomes large is shown. After some averaging volume, the volume-dependent cross-correlation coefficient reaches a limit value. This plateau value is controlled mainly by the large-scale behavior of the cross and direct variograms.The cross correlation can increase or decrease with volume support depending on the relative importance of long- and short-scale covariance structures. If the direct and cross variograms are proportional, there is no change in the cross correlation as the averaging volume changes. Our study shows that the volume-dependent cross-correlation coefficient is sensitive to the shape of the cross variogram and differences between the direct variograms of the well data and seismic data.  相似文献   

Stepwise Conditional Transformation for Simulation of Multiple Variables   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Oy Leuangthong  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Mathematical Geology》2003,35(2):155-173

Most geostatistical studies consider multiple-related variables. These relationships often show complex features such as nonlinearity, heteroscedasticity, and mineralogical or other constraints. These features are not handled by the well-established Gaussian simulation techniques. Earth science variables are rarely Gaussian. Transformation or anamorphosis techniques make each variable univariate Gaussian, but do not enforce bivariate or higher order Gaussianity. The stepwise conditional transformation technique is proposed to transform multiple variables to be univariate Gaussian and multivariate Gaussian with no cross correlation. This makes it remarkably easy to simulate multiple variables with arbitrarily complex relationships: (1) transform the multiple variables, (2) perform independent Gaussian simulation on the transformed variables, and (3) back transform to the original variables. The back transformation enforces reproduction of the original complex features. The methodology and underlying assumptions are explained. Several petroleum and mining examples are used to show features of the transformation and implementation details.  相似文献   

Indicator Simulation Accounting for Multiple-Point Statistics   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Julián M. Ortiz  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Mathematical Geology》2004,36(5):545-565

Geostatistical simulation aims at reproducing the variability of the real underlying phenomena. When nonlinear features or large-range connectivity is present, the traditional variogram-based simulation approaches do not provide good reproduction of those features. Connectivity of high and low values is often critical for grades in a mineral deposit. Multiple-point statistics can help to characterize these features. The use of multiple-point statistics in geostatistical simulation was proposed more than 10 years ago, on the basis of the use of training images to extract the statistics. This paper proposes the use of multiple-point statistics extracted from actual data. A method is developed to simulate continuous variables. The indicator kriging probabilities used in sequential indicator simulation are modified by probabilities extracted from multiple-point configurations. The correction is done under the assumption of conditional independence. The practical implementation of the method is illustrated with data from a porphyry copper mine.  相似文献   

Transformation of Residuals to Avoid Artifacts in Geostatistical Modelling with a Trend   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Oy Leuangthong  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Mathematical Geology》2004,36(3):287-305

Trend modelling is an important part of natural resource characterization. A common approach to account for a variable with a trend is to decompose it into a relatively smoothly varying trend and a more variable residual component. Then, the residuals are stochastically modelled independent of the trend. This decomposition can result in values outside the plausible range of variability, such as grades below zero or ratios that exceed 1.0. We transform the residuals conditional to the trend component to explicitly remove these complex features prior to geostatistical modelling. Back transformation of the modelled residual values allows the complex relations to be reproduced. A petroleum-related application shows the robustness of the proposed transformation. Furthermore, a mining application shows that when this conditional transformation is applied to the original variable, instead of the residual, simulated values are assured to be nonnegative.  相似文献   

Correction to: New insights into the rainfall variability in the tropical Andes on seasonal and interannual time scales     

Segura  Hans  Junquas  Clementine  Espinoza  Jhan Carlo  Vuille  Mathias  Jauregui  Yakelyn R.  Rabatel  Antoine  Condom  Thomas  Lebel  Thierry 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(1-2):679-680

Climate Dynamics - The original version of the article contained errors in Fig.  相似文献   

Experimental impact cratering: A summary of the major results of the MEMIN research unit          下载免费PDF全文

Thomas Kenkmann  Alex Deutsch  Klaus Thoma  Matthias Ebert  Michael H. Poelchau  Elmar Buhl  Eva-Regine Carl  Andreas N. Danilewsky  Georg Dresen  Anja Dufresne  Nathanaël Durr  Lars Ehm  Christian Grosse  Max Gulde  Nicole Güldemeister  Christopher Hamann  Lutz Hecht  Stefan Hiermaier  Tobias Hoerth  Astrid Kowitz  Falko Langenhorst  Bernd Lexow  Hanns-Peter Liermann  Robert Luther  Ulrich Mansfeld  Dorothee Moser  Manuel Raith  Wolf Uwe Reimold  Martin Sauer  Frank Schäfer  Ralf Thomas Schmitt  Frank Sommer  Jakob Wilk  Rebecca Winkler  Kai Wünnemann 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2018,53(8):1543-1568

This paper reviews major findings of the Multidisciplinary Experimental and Modeling Impact Crater Research Network (MEMIN). MEMIN is a consortium, funded from 2009 till 2017 by the German Research Foundation, and is aimed at investigating impact cratering processes by experimental and modeling approaches. The vision of this network has been to comprehensively quantify impact processes by conducting a strictly controlled experimental campaign at the laboratory scale, together with a multidisciplinary analytical approach. Central to MEMIN has been the use of powerful two-stage light-gas accelerators capable of producing impact craters in the decimeter size range in solid rocks that allowed detailed spatial analyses of petrophysical, structural, and geochemical changes in target rocks and ejecta. In addition, explosive setups, membrane-driven diamond anvil cells, as well as laser irradiation and split Hopkinson pressure bar technologies have been used to study the response of minerals and rocks to shock and dynamic loading as well as high-temperature conditions. We used Seeberger sandstone, Taunus quartzite, Carrara marble, and Weibern tuff as major target rock types. In concert with the experiments we conducted mesoscale numerical simulations of shock wave propagation in heterogeneous rocks resolving the complex response of grains and pores to compressive, shear, and tensile loading and macroscale modeling of crater formation and fracturing. Major results comprise (1) projectile–target interaction, (2) various aspects of shock metamorphism with special focus on low shock pressures and effects of target porosity and water saturation, (3) crater morphologies and cratering efficiencies in various nonporous and porous lithologies, (4) in situ target damage, (5) ejecta dynamics, and (6) geophysical survey of experimental craters.  相似文献