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Joshua W. Busby Kerry H. Cook Edward K. Vizy Todd G. Smith Mesfin Bekalo 《Climatic change》2014,124(4):717-731
Given its high dependence on rainfed agriculture and its comparatively low adaptive capacity, Africa is frequently invoked as especially vulnerable to climate change. Within Africa, there is likely to be considerable variation in vulnerability to climate change both between and within countries. This paper seeks to advance the agenda of identifying the hot spots of what we term “climate security” vulnerability, areas where the confluence of vulnerabilities could put large numbers of people at risk of death from climate-related hazards. This article blends the expertise of social scientists and climate scientists. It builds on a model of composite vulnerability that incorporates four “baskets” or processes that are thought to contribute to vulnerability including: (1) physical exposure, (2) population density, (3) household and community resilience, and (4) governance and political violence. Whereas previous iterations of the model relied on historical physical exposure data of natural hazards, this paper uses results from regional model simulations of African climate in the late 20th century and mid-21st century to develop measures of extreme weather events—dry days, heat wave events, and heavy rainfall days—coupled with an indicator of low-lying coastal elevation. For the late 20th century, this mapping process reveals the most vulnerable areas are concentrated in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan, with pockets in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mauritania, and Sierra Leone. The mid 21st century projection shows more extensive vulnerability throughout the Sahel, including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, northern Nigeria, Niger, and across Sudan. 相似文献
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Gully cut‐and‐fill cycles as related to agro‐management: a historical curve number simulation in the Tigray Highlands 
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下载免费PDF全文 Sil Lanckriet Amaury Frankl Gebrekidan Mesfin Katrien Descheemaeker Jan Nyssen 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(6):796-808
Gully cut‐and‐fill dynamics are often thought to be driven by climate and/or deforestation related to population pressure. However, in this case‐study of nine representative catchments in the Northern Ethiopian Highlands, we find that neither climate changes nor deforestation can explain gully morphology changes over the twentieth century. Firstly, by using a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate historical catchment‐wide curve numbers, we show that the landscape was already heavily degraded in the nineteenth and early twentieth century – a period with low population density. The mean catchment‐wide curve number (> 80) one century ago was, under the regional climatic conditions, already resulting in considerable simulated historical runoff responses. Secondly, twentieth century land‐cover and runoff coefficient changes were confronted with twentieth century changing gully morphologies. As the results show, large‐scale land‐cover changes and deforestation cannot explain the observed processes. The study therefore invokes interactions between authigenic factors, small‐scale plot boundary changes, cropland management and sociopolitical forces to explain the gully cut processes. Finally, semi‐structured interviews and sedistratigraphic analysis of three filled gullies confirm the dominant impact of (crop)land management (tillage, check dams in gullies and channel diversions) on gully cut‐and‐fill processes. Since agricultural land management – including land tenure and land distribution – has been commonly neglected in earlier related research, we argue therefore that it can be a very strong driver of twentieth century gully morphodynamics. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Menna Biniyam Yisehak Mesfin Henok Shiferaw Gebrekidan Atkilt Girma Siyum Zenebe Girmay Tegene Melaku Takele 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,149(1-2):621-638
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Meteorological drought is among the key climate-related risks affecting Ethiopia. It indicates a shortage of precipitation over a long period, usually for a... 相似文献
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Mesfin Benti Tolera Seunghyuk Park Sun Woo Chang Il-Moon Chung 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(15):545
A total of 129 groundwater samples were collected in the Jangseong region of South Korea to characterize and evaluate groundwater quality and its suitability for irrigation and domestic uses. Samples were chemically analyzed for major ions, pH, electrical conductivity, and total dissolved solids following standard methods. The AquaChem 2014.2 model linked with PHREEQC was used for the statistical analysis and characterization of the hydrochemistry of the groundwater. The analysis showed that in all samples Ca–HCO3 was the leading water type and that the abundance of major cations was in the order Ca > Na > Mg > K, and of anions in the order HCO3 > Cl > SO4 > F. According to the correlation analysis, Ca showed strong interdependence with HCO3, suggesting that these parameters may have originated from common sources. Saturation index calculations indicated that all samples were undersaturated with respect to aragonite, calcite, dolomite, fluorite, gypsum, halite, and siderite, and oversaturated with respect to goethite and hematite. The irrigation suitability analysis revealed that groundwater in the Jangseong area can be used for irrigation without any restrictions based on EC, sodium adsorption ratio, percent sodium, residual sodium carbonate, Kelley ratio, permeability index, and the US Salinity Laboratory diagram analysis. The drinking water suitability analysis made for major parameters by comparison with the WHO guidelines indicates that the groundwater in the area is suitable for drinking except in some samples with high nitrate–N concentrations. The elevated nitrate concentrations in the groundwater are likely an indicator of agricultural pollution. 相似文献
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K. N. Bower T. W. Choularton M. W. Gallagher R. N. Colvile K. M. Beswick D. W. F. Inglis C. Bradbury B. G. Martinsson E. Swietlicki O. H. Berg S. -I. Cederfelt G. Frank J. Zhou J. N. Cape M. A. Sutton G. G. McFadyen C. Milford W. Birmili B. A. Yuskiewicz A. Wiedensohler F. Stratmann M. Wendisch A. Berner P. Ctyroky Z. Galambos S. H. Mesfin U. Dusek C. J. Dore D. S. Lee S. A. Pepler M. Bizjak B. Divjak 《Atmospheric Research》1999,50(3-4)
During March and April of 1995 a major international field project was conducted at the UMIST field station site on Great Dun Fell in Cumbria, Northern England. The hill cap cloud which frequently envelopes this site was used as a natural flow through reactor to examine the sensitivity of the cloud microphysics to the aerosol entering the cloud and also to investigate the effects of the cloud in changing the aerosol size distribution, chemical composition and associated optical properties. To investigate these processes, detailed measurements of the cloud water chemistry (including the chemistry of sulphur compounds, organic and inorganic oxidised nitrogen and ammonia), cloud microphysics and properties of the aerosol and trace gas concentrations upwind and downwind of the cap cloud were undertaken. It was found that the cloud droplet number was generally strongly correlated to aerosol number concentration, with up to 2000 activated droplets cm−3 being observed in the most polluted conditions. In such conditions it was inferred that hygroscopic organic compounds were important in the activation process. Often, the size distribution of the aerosol was substantially modified by the cloud processing, largely due to the aqueous phase oxidation of S(IV) to sulphate by hydrogen peroxide, but also through the uptake and fixing of gas phase nitric acid as nitrate, increasing the calculated optical scattering of the aerosol substantially (by up to 24%). New particle formation was also observed in the ultrafine aerosol mode (at about 5 nm) downwind of the cap cloud, particularly in conditions of low total aerosol surface area and in the presence of ammonia and HCl gases. This was seen to occur at night as well as during the day via a mechanism which is not yet understood. The implications of these results for parameterising aerosol growth in Global Climate Models are explored. 相似文献
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GeoJournal - Freshwater systems are productive environments and vital for the livelihood of local people. The provision of goods and services is, however, related to their functionality and... 相似文献
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