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1.
Interannual variability of rainfall over the Sahel based on multiple regional climate models simulations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ismaila Diallo Mouhamadou B. Sylla Moctar Camara Amadou T. Gaye 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,113(1-2):351-362
We analyse the interannual variability of the averaged summer monsoon rainfall over the Sahel from multiple regional climate models driven by the ERA-interim reanalysis and seek to provide effective information for future modelling work. We find that the majority of the models are able to reproduce the rainfall variability with correlation coefficient exceeding 0.5 compared with observations. This is due to a good representation of the dynamics of the main monsoon features of the West African climate such as the monsoon flux, African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ). Among the models, only HIRHAM fails to reproduce the rainfall variability exhibiting hence a correlation coefficient of ?0.2. This deficiency originates from the fact that HIRHAM does not properly capture the variability of monsoon flow and the relationship between rainfall and the AEJ dynamic. We conclude that a good performance of a regional climate model in simulating the monsoon dynamical features variability is of primary importance for a better representation of the interannual variability of rainfall over the Sahel. 相似文献
2.
Multiyear simulation of the African climate using a regional climate model (RegCM3) with the high resolution ERA-interim reanalysis 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla E. Coppola L. Mariotti F. Giorgi P. M. Ruti A. Dell’Aquila X. Bi 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(1):231-247
This study examines the ability of the latest version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) regional
climate model (RegCM3) to reproduce seasonal mean climatologies, annual cycle and interannual variability over the entire
African continent and different climate subregions. The new European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-interim
reanalysis is used to provide initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RegCM3 simulation. Seasonal mean values of zonal
wind profile, temperature, precipitation and associated low level circulations are shown to be realistically simulated, although
the regional model still shows some deficiencies. The West Africa monsoon flow is somewhat overestimated and the Africa Easterly
Jet (AEJ) core intensity is underestimated. Despite these biases, there is a marked improvement in these simulated model variables
compared to previous applications of this model over Africa. The mean annual cycle of precipitation, including single and
multiple rainy seasons, is well captured over most African subregions, in some cases even improving the quality of the ERA-interim
reanalysis. Similarly, the observed precipitation interannual variability is well reproduced by the regional model over most
regions, mostly following, and sometimes improving, the quality of the ERA-interim reanalysis. It is assessed that the performance
of this model over the entire African domain is of sufficient quality for application to the study of climate change and climate
variability over the African continent. 相似文献
3.
Nowadays,the preservation of natural resources,the reuse,and the recycling of waste and by-products in the cement industry are gaining increasing attention in a sustainable development project.In this perspective,many studies focus on finding solutions in order to propose environmentally friendly materials.Nowadays the sediments represent a way to preserve the natural resources by their reuse as a secondary raw material in multiple applications(concrete,roads,landscaped mound,etc.).However,they commonly contain contaminants,organic matter(5%-30%),high water content(50%-200%),and relatively small particle size(Dmax≤300 mm).Therefore to improve the mechanical properties of this material as well as its physiochemical ones,specific methods of characterization and appropriate treatment techniques(calcination,chemical treatment,etc.)are required.This article presents a bibliographical review of the efficient use of sediments in cementitious matrix.It details experimental tests that must be performed to ensure the durability of sediment-based structure and assess their environmental impact under prescribed conditions. 相似文献
4.
Projected increased risk of water deficit over major West African river basins under future climates
Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla Aissatou Faye Nana Ama Browne Klutse Kangbeni Dimobe 《Climatic change》2018,149(2):247-260
Despite decades of research, large multi-model uncertainty remains about the Earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide forcing as inferred from state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs). Statistical treatments of multi-model uncertainties are often limited to simple ESM averaging approaches. Sometimes models are weighted by how well they reproduce historical climate observations. Here, we propose a novel approach to multi-model combination and uncertainty quantification. Rather than averaging a discrete set of models, our approach samples from a continuous distribution over a reduced space of simple model parameters. We fit the free parameters of a reduced-order climate model to the output of each member of the multi-model ensemble. The reduced-order parameter estimates are then combined using a hierarchical Bayesian statistical model. The result is a multi-model distribution of reduced-model parameters, including climate sensitivity. In effect, the multi-model uncertainty problem within an ensemble of ESMs is converted to a parametric uncertainty problem within a reduced model. The multi-model distribution can then be updated with observational data, combining two independent lines of evidence. We apply this approach to 24 model simulations of global surface temperature and net top-of-atmosphere radiation response to abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide, and four historical temperature data sets. Our reduced order model is a 2-layer energy balance model. We present probability distributions of climate sensitivity based on (1) the multi-model ensemble alone and (2) the multi-model ensemble and observations. 相似文献
5.
Talardia Gbangou Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla Onemayin David Jimoh Appollonia Aimiosino Okhimamhe 《Climatic change》2018,151(3-4):445-462
This paper examines changes in rainfall effectiveness indices of the Awun basin in Nigeria during the late twenty-first century for agricultural applications with outputs from high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The RCM simulations are driven by two global climate models for a reference period (1985–2004) and a future period (2080–2099) and for RCP4.5 (a scenario with some mitigation) and RCP8.5 (a business as usual scenario) forcings. Simulations are provided for the control (1985–2004) and scenario (2080–2099) periods. Observations from synoptic station are used for bias-correction. Three indices being local onset date, seasonality index (SI), and hydrologic ratio (HR) are analyzed. Onset and HR are tested with two evapotranspiration (ETp) models. Farmers’ perceptions are also collected to validate trends of rainfall indices for the present-day climate. We found that onset dates do not depend much on the ETp models used, and farmers’ perceptions are consistent with predicted rainfall patterns. Present-day climate trend shows an early onset. However, onset is projected to be late in future and the delay will be magnified under the business as usual scenario. Indeed, average onset date is found on the 5th May for present-day while in the future, a delay about 4 and 8 weeks is projected under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. SI is between 0.80 and 0.99, and HR is less than 0.75 for all scenarios, meaning respectively that (i) the rainy season will get shorter and (ii) the area will get drier in the future compared to the present-day. Local stakeholders are forewarned to prepare for potential response strategies. A continuous provision of forecast-based rainfall indices to support farmer’s decision making is also recommended. 相似文献
6.
Along the lower reaches of the Waipaoa River, New Zealand, cross‐section survey data indicate there was a 23 per cent decrease in bankfull width and a 22 per cent reduction in channel cross‐section area between 1948 and 2000, as the channel responded to increased inputs of fine (suspended) sediment following deforestation of the headwaters in late C19 and early C20. We determined the bankfull discharge within a ～39 km long reach by routing known discharges through the one‐dimensional MIKE 11 flow model. The model runs suggest that the bankfull discharge varies between ～800 and ～2300 m3 s?1 and that the average recurrence interval is 4 ± 2 years on the annual maximum series; by contrast, the effective flow (360 m3 s?1) is equaled or exceeded three times a year. The variability in bankfull discharge arises because the banks tend to be lower in places where flood flows are constricted than in reaches where overbank flow is dispersed over a wide area, and because scour has counteracted aggradation in some locations. There is no downstream variation in Shields stress, or in relative shear stress, within the study reach. Bankfull shear stress is, on average, five times greater than the shear stress required to initiate motion. At the effective discharge it is more than twice the threshold value. The effective discharge probably has more relevance than the bankfull discharge to the overall picture of sediment movement in the lower reaches of the Waipaoa River but, because width is constrained by the stability and resistance of the bank material to erosion during high flows that also scour the bed, the overall channel geometry is likely determined by discharges at or near bankfull. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
W. N.-C. Sy 《Solar physics》1974,34(2):427-431
Plasma radiation arising from non-linear coupling of upper hybrid plasma waves and Bernstein waves is examined as a possible explanation (Rosenberg, 1972) for the fine structures observed in some wide-band solar radio bursts. This radiation is found to be weakly polarized and therefore it cannot account for the fine structures, which are strongly polarized. The difficulties encountered in explaining several bands of radiation at comparable intensities are indicated. 相似文献
8.
Assi Louis Martial Yapo Adama Diawara Benjamin K. Kouassi Fid&#;le Yoroba Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla Kouakou Kouadio Dro T. Ti&#;moko Dianikoura Ibrahim Kon&#; Elis&#;e Y. Akob&#; Kouassi P. A. T. Yao 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2020,140(3):871-889
This study analyzes projected changes in seasonal extreme precipitation intensity and dry spell length in the investigation area (Côte d’Ivoire) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. To this end, a multi-model ensemble of fourteen CORDEX-Africa regional climate model simulations is used during the three stages of the West African Monsoon (WAM) season (April–June (AMJ), July–September (JAS), and October–December (OND)). The results indicate that Côte d’Ivoire is subject to a robust increase of cumulative intensity of precipitation associated with an amplification of extreme precipitation events during the WAM. In particular during JAS, a substantial increase in extreme precipitation reaching up to 50–60% compared to the reference mean value prevails in the western and coastal areas in the far future and under the RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, AMJ season is dominated by an increase in dry spell length of about 12% and 17% in the near future and 20% and 30% in the far future in the entire country under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, albeit considerable uncertainties. OND considered as the post-monsoon season is mostly characterized by a robust decrease in dry spell length more marked in the southwest in the RCP8.5 scenario during the far future. These results suggest that agricultural production and particularly cocoa plantations in the southwestern regions could be at the risk of flooding events and that water stress remains a threat for cocoa, coffee, and other cash crop plantations in the eastern regions. 相似文献
9.
Africa is growing rapidly both in terms of population size and economically. It is also becoming increasingly clear that fossil fuels impose a high price on society through local environmental pollution and Africa’s particular vulnerability to climate change. At the same time, Africa has an excellent renewable energy potential and prices for renewable energy are reaching the price range of fossil fuels. Comparing results from state-of-the-art Integrated Assessment Models we find different options for achieving a sustainable energy supply in Africa. They have in common, however, that strong economic development is considered compatible with the 2°C climate target. Taking both challenges and appropriate solutions into account, some models find that a complete switch to renewable energy in electricity production is possible in the medium term. The continental analysis identifies important synergy effects, in particular the exchange of electricity between neighbouring countries. The optimal energy mix varies considerably between African countries, but there is sufficient renewable energy for each country. The intermittency and higher capital intensity of renewable energy are important challenges, but proven solutions are available for them. In addition, we analyse the political economy of a sustainable energy transition in Africa.
Key policy insights
An almost complete shift towards renewable energy (RE) is considered feasible and affordable in Africa.
By 2050, electricity generation could be sourced largely from solar, wind and hydro power.
Prices for RE in Africa are now within the price range of fossil fuels, partly due to the excellent RE potential.
The optimal energy mix varies strongly between countries, but RE is sufficiently available everywhere.
Addressing intermittency is possible, but requires investments and cooperation on the grid.
10.
This paper attempts to provide a better understanding of the hydrodynamic behavior of a tandem hull form in a floating production platform application where high deck payload capacity and low wave induced motions of this vessel are primary design goals. A simplified hydrodynamic analysis and a more representative radiation and diffraction theory based hydrodynamic analysis are used for wave induced forces and motions. The analysis results are compared with model test results to deduce principal features of these special purpose hull configurations. The motion responses in different wave headings evaluated from the complicated diffraction analysis are compared and discussed in some detail. 相似文献