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The MJO modulation of sea surface chlorophyll-a (Chl) examined initially by Waliser et al. in Geophys Res Lett, (2005) is revisited with a significantly longer time-series of observations and a more systematic approach to characterizing the possible mechanisms underlying the MJO-Chl relationships. The MJO composite analysis of Chl and lead-lag correlations between Chl and other physical variables reveal regional variability of Chl and corresponding indicative temporal relationships among variables. Along the path of the MJO convection, wind speed—a proxy for oceanic vertical turbulent mixing and corresponding entrainment—is most strongly correlated with Chl when wind leads Chl by a few days. Composite Chl also displays MJO influences away from the path of the MJO convection. The role of wind speed in those regions is generally the same for Chl variability as that along the path of the MJO convection, although Ekman pumping also plays a role in generating Chl variability in limited regions. However, the wind forcing away from the MJO convection path is less coherent, rendering the temporal link relatively weak. Lastly, the potential for bio-physical feedbacks at the MJO time-scale is examined. The correlation analysis provides tantalizing evidence for local bio-feedbacks to the physical MJO system. Plausible hypothesis for Chl to amplify the MJO phase transition is presented though it cannot be affirmed in this study and will be examined and reported in a future modeling study. 相似文献
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M. Bala Krishna Prasad Mathew R. P. Sapiano Clarissa R. Anderson Wen Long Raghu Murtugudde 《Estuaries and Coasts》2010,33(5):1128-1143
A retrospective analysis of freshwater discharge, riverine dissolved nutrient loads, dissolved nutrients, and chlorophyll in the Chesapeake Bay from 1985 to 2008 is presented. It is evident that each field displays an interannual variability averaged over the Bay. The N and P loads peaked in 1997 and have fluctuated with a decreasing trend since early 2004. Dissolved nutrient concentrations in the Bay appear to be largely controlled by riverine nutrient loads. The temporal variability of chlorophyll is positively correlated with nutrient loads and concentrations. Over the study period, N:P (DIN:DIP) molar ratios were consistently higher than the Redfield ratio (N:P?=?16:1) and strongly correlated with river discharge (R 2?=?0.68, p??16:1), and N is the limiting nutrient in summer and early autumn (N:P?4 from anoxic sediments. Long-term climate indices, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), appear to exert only a moderate control over the riverine discharge to the Bay or over the ecosystem response in terms of chlorophyll in the Bay. While not all related mechanisms can be inferred from available data, this analysis should help in determining future data needs for monitoring water quality and human and climate influence on the health of the Bay. 相似文献
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The expected growth in the demand for passenger and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as commercial low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper, we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an analysis leveraging various integrated assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). We find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the future transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, models project that in 2100 bioenergy can provide on average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This makes up 9–62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100 (ranging from 2 to 44%), compared to 10% (0–30%) for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 306 to 776 out of 1,000 GtCO2). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.
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Aneesh Subramanian Markus Jochum Arthur J. Miller Richard Neale Hyodae Seo Duane Waliser Raghu Murtugudde 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(7-8):2019-2031
The change in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) amplitude and variance in response to anthropogenic climate change is assessed in the 1° nominal resolution community climate system model, version 4 (CCSM4), which has a reasonable representation of the MJO characteristics both dynamically and statistically. The twentieth century CCSM4 run is compared with the warmest twenty-first century projection (representative concentration pathway 8.5, or RCP8.5). The last 20 years of each simulation are compared in their MJO characteristics, including spatial variance distributions of winds, precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation, histograms of event amplitude, phase and duration, and composite maps of phases. The RCP8.5 run exhibits increased variance in intraseasonal precipitation, larger-amplitude MJO events, stronger MJO rainfall in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and a greater frequency of MJO occurrence for phases corresponding to enhanced rainfall in the Indian Ocean sector. These features are consistent with the concept of an increased magnitude for the hydrological cycle under greenhouse warming conditions. Conversely, the number of active MJO days decreases and fewer weak MJO events occur in the future climate state. These results motivate further study of these changes since tropical rainfall variability plays such an important role in the region’s socio-economic well being. 相似文献
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Oceanic response to Madden–Julian Oscillations (MJOs) is studied with satellite data, mooring observations, and reanalysis products to demonstrate that oceanic intraseasonal variabilities are a direct response to the atmospheric intraseasonal forcing. They propagate eastward to the Sumatran coast and southward along the coast to the southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO) and the maritime continent, as coastal Kelvin waves. MJOs contribute to about 20% of the intraseasonal variabilities in the SEIO and the maritime continent. In addition, MJOs reduce the annual mean Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and the associated westward temperature advection. However, MJOs only have slight influences on the peak ITF in boreal summer. The importance of INSTANT data is obvious not only for understanding of ITF but also for improving ocean reanalysis and should eventually lead to improved predictive understanding of phenomena such as MJOs. 相似文献
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M. Bala Krishna Prasad Wen Long Xinsheng Zhang Robert J. Wood Raghu Murtugudde 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2011,73(3):437-451
Eutrophic depletion of dissolved oxygen (DO) and its consequences for ecosystem dynamics have been a central theme of research,
assessment and management policies for several decades in the Chesapeake Bay. Ongoing forecast efforts predict the extent
of the summer hypoxic/anoxic area due to nutrient loads from the watershed. However, these models neither predict DO levels
nor address the intricate interactions among various ecological processes. The prediction of spatially explicit DO levels
in the Chesapeake Bay can eventually lead to a reliable depiction of the comprehensive ecological structure and functioning,
and can also allow the quantification of the role of nutrient reduction strategies in water quality management. In this paper,
we describe a three dimensional empirical model to predict DO levels in the Chesapeake Bay as a function of water temperature,
salinity and dissolved nutrient concentrations (TDN and TDP). The residual analysis shows that predicted DO values compare
well with observations. Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and root mean square error-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR)
are used to evaluate the performance of the empirical model; the scores demonstrate the usability of model predictions (NSE,
surface layer = 0.82–0.86; middle layer = 0.65–0.82; bottom layer = 0.70–0.82; RSR surface layer = 0.37–0.44; middle layer = 0.43–0.58
and bottom layer = 0.43–0.54). The predicted DO values and other physical outputs from downscaling of regional weather and
climate predictions, or forecasts from hydrodynamic models, can be used to forecast various ecological components. Such forecasts
would be useful for both recreational and commercial users of the Chesapeake Bay. 相似文献
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An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical–biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye (Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization [Senina, I., Sibert, J., Lehodey, P., 2008. Parameter estimation for basin-scale ecosystem-linked population models of large pelagic predators: application to skipjack tuna. Progress in Oceanography]. Once this evaluation and parameterization is complete, it may be possible to use the model for management of tuna stocks in the context of climate and ecosystem variability, and to investigate potential changes due to anthropogenic activities including global warming and fisheries pressures and management scenarios. 相似文献