Space-time kriging of precipitation variability in Turkey for the period 1976–2010     

Raja  Nussaïbah B.  Aydin  Olgu  Türkoğlu  Necla  Çiçek  Ihsan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(1-2):293-304

The purpose of this study is to revaluate the changing spatial and temporal trends of precipitation in Turkey. Turkey is located in one of the regions at greatest risk from the potential effects of climate change. Since the 1970s, a decreasing trend in annual precipitation has been observed, in addition to an increasing number of precipitation-related natural hazards such as floods, extreme precipitation, and droughts. An understanding of the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation is therefore crucial to hazard management as well as planning and managing water resources, which depend heavily on precipitation. The ordinary kriging method was employed to interpolate precipitation estimates using precipitation records from 228 meteorological stations across the country for the period 1976–2010. A decreasing trend was observed across the Central Anatolian region, except for 1996–2000 which saw an increase in precipitation. However, this same period is identified as the driest year in Eastern and South Eastern Anatolia. The Eastern Black Sea region has the highest precipitation in the country; after 1996, an increase in annual precipitation in this region is observed. An overall reduction is also seen in southwest Turkey, with less variation in precipitation.

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Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Nussaïbah B. Raja  Ihsan Çiçek  Necla Türkoğlu  Olgu Aydin  Akiyuki Kawasaki 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(3):1323-1346

Of the natural hazards in Turkey, landslides are the second most devastating in terms of socio-economic losses, with the majority of landslides occurring in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The aim of this study is to use a statistical approach to carry out a landslide susceptibility assessment in one area at great risk from landslides: the Sera River Basin located in the Eastern Black Sea Region. This paper applies a multivariate statistical approach in the form of a logistics regression model to explore the probability distribution of future landslides in the region. The model attempts to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the dependent variable, here the presence or absence of landslides in a region and a set of independent parameters contributing to the occurrence of landslides. The dependent variable (0 for the absence of landslides and 1 for the presence of landslides) was generated using landslide data retrieved from an existing database and expert opinion. The database has information on a few landslides in the region, but is not extensive or complete, and thus unlike those normally used for research. Slope, angle, relief, the natural drainage network (including distance to rivers and the watershed index) and lithology were used as independent parameters in this study. The effect of each parameter was assessed using the corresponding coefficient in the logistic regression function. The results showed that the natural drainage network plays a significant role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Landslide susceptibility was evaluated using a predicted map of probability. Zones with high and medium susceptibility to landslides make up 38.8 % of the study area and are located mostly south of the Sera River Basin and along streams.  相似文献   

Correction to: Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model     

Raja  Nussaïbah B.  Çiçek  Ihsan  Türkoğlu  Necla  Aydin  Olgu  Kawasaki  Akiyuki 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(3):1423-1423

Natural Hazards - The article “Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model,” written by Nussaïbah B. Raja, Ihsan Çiçek, Necla...  相似文献