Use of regionalisation approach to develop fire frequency curves for Victoria,Australia     

Anirban?KhastagirEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Niranjali?Jayasuriya  Muhammed?A.?Bhuyian 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,134(3-4):849-858

It is important to perform fire frequency analysis to obtain fire frequency curves (FFC) based on fire intensity at different parts of Victoria. In this paper fire frequency curves (FFCs) were derived based on forest fire danger index (FFDI). FFDI is a measure related to fire initiation, spreading speed and containment difficulty. The mean temperature (T), relative humidity (RH) and areal extent of open water (LC2) during summer months (Dec–Feb) were identified as the most important parameters for assessing the risk of occurrence of bushfire. Based on these parameters, Andrews’ curve equation was applied to 40 selected meteorological stations to identify homogenous stations to form unique clusters. A methodology using peak FFDI from cluster averaged FFDIs was developed by applying Log Pearson Type III (LPIII) distribution to generate FFCs. A total of nine homogeneous clusters across Victoria were identified, and subsequently their FFC’s were developed in order to estimate the regionalised fire occurrence characteristics.  相似文献   

Short-term droughts forecast using Markov chain model in Victoria,Australia     

Rahmat  Siti Nazahiyah  Jayasuriya  Niranjali  Bhuiyan  Muhammed A. 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(1-2):445-457

A comprehensive risk management strategy for dealing with drought should include both short-term and long-term planning. The objective of this paper is to present an early warning method to forecast drought using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and a non-homogeneous Markov chain model. A model such as this is useful for short-term planning. The developed method has been used to forecast droughts at a number of meteorological monitoring stations that have been regionalised into six (6) homogenous clusters with similar drought characteristics based on SPI. The non-homogeneous Markov chain model was used to estimate drought probabilities and drought predictions up to 3 months ahead. The drought severity classes defined using the SPI were computed at a 12-month time scale. The drought probabilities and the predictions were computed for six clusters that depict similar drought characteristics in Victoria, Australia. Overall, the drought severity class predicted was quite similar for all the clusters, with the non-drought class probabilities ranging from 49 to 57 %. For all clusters, the near normal class had a probability of occurrence varying from 27 to 38 %. For the more moderate and severe classes, the probabilities ranged from 2 to 13 % and 3 to 1 %, respectively. The developed model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead reasonably well. However, 2 and 3 months ahead predictions should be used with caution until the models are developed further.

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Assessment of fire danger vulnerability using McArthur’s forest and grass fire danger indices     

Anirban Khastagir  Niranjali Jayasuriya  Muhammed A. Bhuyian 《Natural Hazards》2018,90(3):1277-1307

We present a field survey and a number of simulations of the local Persian Gulf tsunami of 19 March 2017 at Bandar Dayyer, Iran, which resulted in one death, five persons missing and significant damage to the port. The field survey defined the inundated area as extending \(\sim\, 40\) km along the coast, with major effects concentrated on an \(\sim\, 8\) km stretch immediately west of Dayyer, a maximum run-up of 3 m and maximum inundation reaching 600 m. In the absence of significant earthquakes on that day, we first test the possibility of generation of a landslide; however, our simulations for legitimate sources fail to reproduce the distribution of run-up along the coast. We prefer the model of a meteorological tsunami, triggered by Proudman resonance with a hypothetical weather front moving at 10 m/s in a NNW azimuth, which could be an ancillary phenomenon to a major shamal wind system present over the Persian Gulf on that day. More detailed simulations of the Dayyer tsunami would require an improved bathymetric grid in the vicinity of the relevant coastal segment.  相似文献