排序方式： 共有27条查询结果，搜索用时 0 毫秒
1.
There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least. 相似文献
2.
北美观测系统计划（ＮＡＯＳ）是由加拿大、墨西哥及美国的政府组织和大学合作支持的计划,其目的是提出有关这些国家（及其相邻水域）的高空观测系统布局的建议,以满足今后几十年的社会需求。其要点是：①一种评估数值天气预报和局地预报服务中观测系统各种布局价值的科... 相似文献
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
今年恰逢我国一代宗师 ,杰出的气象学家、地理学家和教育家竺可桢先生诞辰 1 1 0周年 ,由中国地理学会冰川冻土分会和沙漠分会、甘肃省气象学会及甘肃省地理学会联合主办 ,“竺可桢精神与西部大开发”座谈会于 4月 1 7日下午在中科院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冻土工程国家重点实验室学术厅举行 ,会议由施雅风院士主持。与会代表来自兰州分院 ,兰州大学及省气象局等 ,与会者既有年过半百的专家学者 ,也有年轻的师生 ,共一百余人。会上首先放映了有关竺可桢先生的文献记录片 ,然后施雅风院士介绍了竺老如何为国办学 ,如何呕心力血地为规划新中… 相似文献
8.
9.
10.