How to reach an elusive INDC target: macro-economic implications of carbon taxation and emissions trading in Turkey     

Baris Karapinar  Hasan Dudu  Ozge Geyik  Aykut Mert Yakut 《Climate Policy》2019,19(9):1157-1172

This paper employs a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to analyse how a carbon tax and/or a national Emissions Trading System (ETS) would affect macroeconomic parameters in Turkey. The modelling work is based on three main policy options for the government by 2030, in the context of Turkey’s mitigation target under its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), that is, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by up to 21% from its Business as Usual (BAU) scenario in 2030: (i) improving the productivity of renewable energy by 1% per annum, a target already included in the INDC, (ii) introducing a new flat rate tax of 15% per ton of CO₂ (of a reference carbon price in world markets) imposed on emissions originating from carbon-intensive sectors, and (iii) introducing a new ETS with caps on emission permits. Our base path scenario projects that GHG emissions in 2030 will be much lower than Turkey’s BAU trajectory of growth from 430 Mt CO₂-eq in 2013 to 1.175 Mt CO₂-eq by 2030, implying that the government’s commitment is largely redundant. On the other hand, if the official target is assumed to be only a simple reduction percentage in 2030 (by 21%), but based on our more realistic base path, the government’s current renewable energy plans will not be sufficient to reach it.

• Turkey’s official INDC is based on over-optimistic assumptions of GDP growth and a highly carbon-intensive development pathway;

• A carbon tax and/or an ETS would be required to reach the 21% reduction target over a realistic base path scenario for 2030;

• The policy options considered in this paper have some effects on major sectors’ shares in total value-added. Yet the reduction in the shares of agriculture, industry, and transportation does not go beyond 1%, while the service sector seems to benefit from most of the policy options;

• Overall employment would be affected positively by the renewable energy target, carbon tax, and ETS through the creation of new jobs;

• Unemployment rates are lower, economic growth is stronger, and households become better off to a larger extent under an ETS than carbon taxation.

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Investigation of the site-specific character of blast vibration prediction     

Turker Hudaverdi  Ozge Akyildiz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(3):138

A new site-specific vibration prediction equation was developed based on site measurement performed in a sandstone quarry. Also, several vibration prediction equations were compiled from the blasting literature and used to predict ground vibration for the studied quarry. By this way, site-specific equation created by regression analysis and the equations obtained from the blasting literature were compared in terms of prediction accuracy. Some of the equations obtained from the literature made better predictions than the site-specific equation created for the studied quarry. The prediction equations were grouped, and the effects of the rock formation and mine type on the prediction accuracy were investigated. Suitable error measures for evaluation of ground vibration prediction were examined in detail. A new general prediction equation was created using site factors (K, β) of the examined studies. The general equation was created using 17 prediction equations reported by blast researchers. Prediction capability of the general equation was found to be strong. Diversity of the blast data is one of the strongest features of the general equation.  相似文献