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Abstract

A significant decrease in mean river flow as well as shifts in flood regimes have been reported at several locations along the River Niger. These changes are the combined effect of persistent droughts, damming and increased consumption of water. Moreover, it is believed that climate change will impact on the hydrological regime of the river in the next decades and exacerbate existing problems. While decision makers and stakeholders are aware of these issues, it is hard for them to figure out what actions should be taken without a quantitative estimate of future changes. In this paper, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of the Niger River watershed at Koulikoro was successfully calibrated, then forced with the climate time series of variable length generated by nine regional climate models (RCMs) from the AMMA-ENSEMBLES experiment. The RCMs were run under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. A combination of quantile-quantile transformation and nearest-neighbour search was used to correct biases in the distributions of RCM outputs. Streamflow time series were generated for the 2026–2050 period (all nine RCMs), and for the 2051–2075 and 2076–2100 periods (three out of nine RCMs) based on the availability of RCM simulations. It was found that the quantile-quantile transformation improved the simulation of both precipitation extremes and ratio of monthly dry days/wet days. All RCMs predicted an increase in temperature and solar radiation, and a decrease in average annual relative humidity in all three future periods relative to the 1981–1989 period, but there was no consensus among them about the direction of change of annual average wind speed, precipitation and streamflow. When all model projections were averaged, mean annual precipitation was projected to decrease, while the total precipitation in the flood season (August, September, October) increased, driving the mean annual flow up by 6.9% (2026–2050), 0.9% (2051–2075) and 5.6% (2076–2100). A t-test showed that changes in multi-model annual mean flow and annual maximum monthly flow between all four periods were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.  相似文献   
3.
The endangered fan shell Pinna nobilis is a large bivalve mollusc (<120 cm shell length) endemic to the Mediterranean that lives one-third buried in soft substrata, generally in shallow coastal waters. We hypothesised that P. nobilis of different sizes would ingest different food sources, because small fan shells will inhale material from closer to the substratum than do large fan shells. We studied stomach contents and faeces of 18 fan shells, 6 small (mean 23.0 cm length), 6 medium-sized (mean 41.5 cm length) and 6 large (mean 62.7 cm length) living in a small area of a low-energy coastal detritic bottom characterised by mud, sand and macroalgae at Mali Ston Bay, Croatia. We found that all P. nobilis ingested copious quantities of undetermined detritus (probably at least 95% of ingested material), phytoplankton, micro and mesozooplankton and pollen grains. Large P. nobilis stomach contents showed a preponderance of water column calanoid copepods, while small fan shells had higher numbers of bivalve larvae. All fan shells took in high numbers of harpacticoid copepods that are benthonic, feeding on microbial communities of detritus and benthic vegetation. There was also a significant selection of phytoplankton species, some apparently occurring between inhalation and ingestion. The stomach contents of small P. nobilis had a higher organic matter content than either medium-sized or large fan shells; this indicated that small fan shells ingested detritus of higher organic content than did larger P. nobilis. As the faeces of all P. nobilis had similar organic matter content, this also indicates higher assimilation efficiencies in small fan shells. The demonstration of differential dietary selectivity by different sized animals has implications for future trophic studies of this endangered species. This study also provides the first demonstration of predation on zooplankton by P. nobilis.  相似文献   
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Single-crystal electron paramagnetic resonance spectra of electron-irradiated stishovite, measured at temperatures from 3.5 to 294?K, reveal three S?=?1/2 radiation-induced defects: an aluminum-associated oxygen hole center and two nd 1 centers (Ti3+ and W5+). The aluminum-associated oxygen hole center, characterized by an orthorhombic site symmetry, coaxial matrices of the electronic Zeeman g, nuclear hyperfine A(27Al) and nuclear quadrupole P(27Al), and the orientation of the g-minimum axis along an O–O direction and those of the unique A(27Al) and P(27Al) axes perpendicular to the O–O direction, is an Al–O2 3? center, with the unpaired electron equally distributed on two equatorial oxygen atoms of a substitutional Al3+ ion at the octahedral Si site. Fully optimized Al-doped structure, theoretical 27Al nuclear hyperfine and quadrupole coupling constants and directions, and 3D spin densities from periodic hybrid density functional theory calculations provide further support for this structural model. Spin Hamiltonian parameters of the Ti3+ and W5+ centers, which are confirmed by their diagnostic 47Ti, 49Ti and 183W hyperfine structures, arise from electron trapping on substitutional Ti4+ and W6+ ions at the octahedral Si site.  相似文献   
6.
Previous electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopic study of gamma-ray-irradiated stishovite at 77 K detected an Al hole center, which was proposed to be an [O2 3−–Al3+] defect. First-principles quantum-mechanical calculations show that the unpaired spin is 85% localized on one of the six oxygen atoms at an AlO6 octahedron, while the calculated 27Al hyperfine constants are similar to those determined by EPR experiments. Theoretical results allow us to propose the Al center to represent an [AlO6]0 defect, and hole hoping among equivalent oxygen atoms is responsible for its detection only at cryogenic temperatures. Theoretical calculations also show that the diamagnetic precursors [AlO6/H+]0, [AlO6/Li+]0, and [AlO6/Na+]0 are stable in stishovite. The calculated OH bond distance and orientation are in excellent agreement with those inferred from FTIR spectra and previous theoretical calculations. The calculated [AlO6/Li+]0 and [AlO6/Na+]0 defects suggest that the monovalent cations such as Li+ and Na+ are potentially important in accommodating Al in stishovite in the lower mantle.  相似文献   
7.
The WAMME regional model intercomparison study   总被引:5,自引:3,他引:2  
Results from five regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation (WAMME) initiative are analyzed. The RCMs were driven by boundary conditions from National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis II data sets and observed sea-surface temperatures (SST) over four May–October seasons, (2000 and 2003–2005). In addition, the simulations were repeated with two of the RCMs, except that lateral boundary conditions were derived from a continuous global climate model (GCM) simulation forced with observed SST data. RCM and GCM simulations of precipitation, surface air temperature and circulation are compared to each other and to observational evidence. Results demonstrate a range of RCM skill in representing the mean summer climate and the timing of monsoon onset. Four of the five models generate positive precipitation biases and all simulate negative surface air temperature biases over broad areas. RCM spatial patterns of June–September mean precipitation over the Sahel achieve spatial correlations with observational analyses of about 0.90, but within two areas south of 10°N the correlations average only about 0.44. The mean spatial correlation coefficient between RCM and observed surface air temperature over West Africa is 0.88. RCMs show a range of skill in simulating seasonal mean zonal wind and meridional moisture advection and two RCMs overestimate moisture convergence over West Africa. The 0.5° computing grid enables three RCMs to detect local minima related to high topography in seasonal mean meridional moisture advection. Sensitivity to lateral boundary conditions differs between the two RCMs for which this was assessed. The benefits of dynamic downscaling the GCM seasonal climate prediction are analyzed and discussed.  相似文献   
8.
Hermit crabs of the family Coenobitidae comprise the land hermit crabs, with 16 Coenobita species, and the coconut crab Birgus latro. They are terrestrial but spend their marine life as planktonic larvae. Some coenobitid crabs are widely distributed in the Indo‐West Pacific region, and some species occupy narrower ranges. To improve our knowledge of coenobitid crab speciation and geographical distribution patterns, we examined the phylogenetic relationship between Coenobita purpureus, which has a narrow distribution in the Northwestern Pacific, and its more widely distributed coenobitids including B. latro, Coenobita brevimanus, Coenobita cavipes, Coenobita perlatus, Coenobita rugosus and Coenobita violascens based on the mtDNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and 16S rDNA genes. We also assessed the phylogeography of Co. purpureus populations based on the COI gene. Our phylogenetic and phylogeographical analyses revealed that (i) Co. purpureus clustered with Co. rugosus and (ii) the Co. purpureus population in the Ogasawara Islands was genetically distinct from those in other regions, which showed genetic panmixia. It has been hypothesized that Co. purpureus evolved in the isolated landmasses of the Ryukyu region during the Pliocene, and that its population expanded and colonized the Ogasawara Islands in the late Pleistocene. Further phylogeographical studies on Coenobita species with relatively narrow distributions coupled with characterization of their phylogenetic relationships with widely distributed congeners will advance our knowledge of the speciation and geographical distribution history of coenobitid crabs.  相似文献   
9.
Thermoluminescence dating of potassium feldspar coarse grains from the fossiliferous Holsteinian marine formation of Herzeele, at the southern limit of the North Sea Basin, yields a minimum age of 228 £ 30 ka. A tentative correction for the long-term fading of the TL signal in potassium feldspar is proposed, assuming a lifetime (τ) of 711 ka. This correction would yield a preliminary age estimate of 271 £ 36 ka. These results support a minimum Oxygen Isotope Stage 7 age, but do not preclude, at this stage of our research, a possible correlation with late Oxygen Isotope Stage 9. These results are in agreement, within the error of the method, with independent absolute dates (U-Th and ESR) obtained on in situ marine shells, which range from 225 ka to 348 ka. This study provides evidence of the reliability of TL age estimates on potassium feldspar coarse grains from shallow-marine sediments older than the Last Interglacial.  相似文献   
10.
The O2 3?-Y3+ center in fluorite-type structures (CaF2 and SrF2) has been investigated at the density functional theory (DFT) level using the CRYSTAL06 code. Our calculations were performed by means of the hybrid B3PW method in which the Hartree–Fock exchange is mixed with the DFT exchange functional, using Becke’s three parameter method, combined with the non-local correlation functionals by Perdew and Wang. Our calculations confirm the stability and the molecular character of the O2 3?-Y3+ center. The unpaired electron is shown to be almost exclusively localized on and equally distributed between the two oxygen atoms that are separated by a bond distance of 2.47 Å in CaF2 and 2.57 Å in SrF2. The calculated 17O and 19F hyperfine constants for of the O2 3?-Y3+ center are in good agreement with their corresponding experimental values reported by previous electron paramagnetic resonance and electron nuclear double resonance studies, while discrepancies are notable for the 89Y hyperfine constants.  相似文献   
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