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Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Strong global warming has been observed in the last three decades. Central Europe, including Poland, is not an exception. Moreover, climate projections for... 相似文献
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Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Uwe Ulbrich Tim brücher Dariusz Graczyk Andreas Krüger Gregor C. Leckebusch Lucas Menzel Iwona Pińskwar Maciej Radziejewski Małgorzata Szwed 《Natural Hazards》2005,36(1-2):165-189
In Central Europe, river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard, in particular after the 1997 Odra /Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive 2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe. Major recent floods in central Europe are put in perspective and their common elements are identified. Having observed that flood risk and vulnerability are likely to have grown in many areas, one is curious to understand the reasons for growth. These can be sought in socio-economic domain (humans encroaching into floodplain areas), terrestrial systems (land-cover changes – urbanization, deforestation, reduction of wetlands, river regulation), and climate system. The atmospheric capacity to absorb moisture, its potential water content, and thus potential for intense precipitation, are likely to increase in a warmer climate. The changes in intense precipitation and high flows are examined, based on observations and projections. Study of projected changes in intense precipitation, using climate models, for several areas of central Europe, and in particular, for drainage basins of the upper Labe/Elbe, Odra/Oder, and Vistula is reported. Significant changes have been identified between future projections and the reference period, of relevance to flood hazard in areas, which have experienced severe recent floodings. 相似文献
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Graczyk Dariusz Pińskwar Iwona Kundzewicz Zbigniew W. Hov Øystein Førland Eirik J. Szwed Małgorzata Choryński Adam 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(1-2):459-471
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - On the basis of temperature observations at 60 meteorological stations in Poland, changes in the indices associated with the presence of extremely high air... 相似文献
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Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Mikołaj Piniewski Abdelkader Mezghani Tomasz Okruszko Iwona Pińskwar Ignacy Kardel Øystein Hov Mateusz Szcześniak Małgorzata Szwed Rasmus E. Benestad Paweł Marcinkowski Dariusz Graczyk Andreas Dobler Eirik J. Førland Joanna O’Keefe Adam Choryński Kajsa M. Parding Jan Erik Haugen 《Acta Geophysica》2018,66(6):1509-1523
The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well. 相似文献
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Changes of snow cover in Poland 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Małgorzata Szwed Iwona Pińskwar Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Dariusz Graczyk Abdelkader Mezghani 《Acta Geophysica》2017,65(1):65-76
The present paper examines variability of characteristics of snow cover (snow cover depth, number of days with snow cover and dates of beginning and end of snow cover) in Poland. The study makes use of a set of 43 long time series of observation records from the stations in Poland, from 1952 to 2013. To describe temporal changes in snow cover characteristics, the intervals of 1952–1990 and of 1991–2013 are compared and trends in analysed data are sought (e.g., using the Mann–Kendall test). Observed behaviour of time series of snow-related variables is complex and not easy to interpret, for instance because of the location of the research area in the zone of transitional moderate climate, where strong variability of climate events is one of the main attributes. A statistical link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the snow cover depth, as well as the number of snow cover days is found. 相似文献
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