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Assessing climate change vulnerability with group multi-criteria decision making approaches 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This study developed an approach to assess the vulnerability to climate change and variability using various group multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods and identified the sources of uncertainty in assessments. MCDM methods include the weighted sum method, one of the most common MCDM methods, the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), fuzzy-based TOPSIS, TOPSIS in a group-decision environment, and TOPSIS combined with the voting methods (Borda count and Copeland’s methods). The approach was applied to a water-resource system in South Korea, and the assessment was performed at the province level by categorizing water resources into water supply and conservation, flood control and water-quality sectors according to their management objectives. Key indicators for each category were profiled with the Delphi surveys, a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback. The sectoral vulnerability scores were further aggregated into one composite score for water-resource vulnerability. Rankings among different MCDM methods varied in different degrees, but noticeable differences in the rankings from the fuzzy- and non-fuzzy-based methods suggested that the uncertainty with crisp data, rather widely used, should be acknowledged in vulnerability assessment. Also rankings from the voting-based methods did not differ much from those from non-voting-based (i.e., average-based) methods. Vulnerability rankings varied significantly among the different sectors of the water-resource systems, highlighting the need to assess the vulnerability of water-resource systems according to objectives, even though one composite index is often used for simplicity. 相似文献
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In an attempt to estimate accurate local sea level change, “sea level trend” modes are identified and separated from natural variability via cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis applied to both the tide gauge data (1965–2013) and the reconstruction data (1950–2010) around the Korean Peninsula. For the tide gauge data, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method is also used to estimate sea level trend to understand an uncertainty from different analysis tools. The three trend models—linear, quadratic, and exponential—are fitted to the amplitude time series of the trend mode so that future projection of sea level can be made. Based on a quadratic model, the rate of local sea level rise (SLR) is expected to be 4.63?±?1.1 mm year?1 during 2010–2060. The estimates of “local” sea level trend vary up to ～30%. It should be noted that, although the three trend models estimate similar sea level trends during the observational period, the projected sea level trend and subsequent SLR differ significantly from one model to another and between the tide gauge data and the reconstruction data; this results in a substantial uncertainty in the future SLR around the Korean Peninsula. 相似文献
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Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Although atmospheric humidity influences environmental and agricultural conditions, thereby influencing plant growth, human health, and air pollution, efforts... 相似文献
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This study develops an integrated approach to assess climate change and urbanization impacts on adaptation strategies in watersheds. We considered the two adaptation strategies for two small watersheds in Korea: the redevelopment of an existing reservoir and the reuse of highly treated wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent. Climate change scenarios were obtained by statistically downscaling the predicted precipitation and temperature with a global climate model (A1B and A2), and urbanization scenarios were derived by estimating the impervious area ratios with an impervious cover model. With the climate change and urbanization scenarios, we used the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran model to derive the flow and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) concentration (conc.) duration curves, and calculate the numbers of days satisfying environmental requirement for instreamflow and the target BOD conc. Climate change reduced the effectiveness of the adaptation strategies with respect to low flow and BOD conc., whereas urbanization generally increased their effectiveness. Climate change had a greater impact on the effectiveness of the adaptation strategies for BOD conc. than for low flow, whereas urbanization had a greater impact on low flow. Comparing impacts of two strategies, a larger decrease in the effectiveness was observed for the WWTP effluent reuse strategy in response to climate change and urbanization. However, the consistent trends cannot be found with ease if climate change and urbanization happens jointly. 相似文献
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