Mapping of Japanese areas susceptible to snow cover change     

P.L.B. Chaffe  K. Takara  Y. Yamashiki  Apip  P. Luo  R.V. Silva 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1718-1728

Abstract

Many of the Japanese regions subject to seasonal snow cover are characterized by low elevations and relatively high winter temperatures. A small change in winter temperatures could render many of these areas susceptible to snow cover change and consequently affect water resources management. This paper describes a climatological approach combined with an AGCM output to identify the regions and main river basins most sensitive to snow cover change in the case of climate change in Japan. It was found that a 1°C rise in temperature during the winter season could increase the snow-free area of Japan by 6%. The snow cover of Tohoku region and Mogami and Agano river basins was found to be the most sensitive to climate change. The AGCM output for a future scenario presents a reduction in total snowfall and an earlier peak in snowmelt for all regions.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Chaffe, P.L.B, Takara, K, Yamashiki, Y, Apip, Luo, P., Silva, R.V., and Nakakita, E., 2013. Mapping of Japanese areas susceptible to snow cover change. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1718–1728.  相似文献   

A distributed hydrological–geotechnical model using satellite-derived rainfall estimates for shallow landslide prediction system at a catchment scale     

Apip  Kaoru Takara  Yosuke Yamashiki  Kyoji Sassa  Agung Bagiawan Ibrahim  Hiroshi Fukuoka 《Landslides》2010,7(3):237-258

This paper describes the potential applicability of a hydrological–geotechnical modeling system using satellite-based rainfall estimates for a shallow landslide prediction system. The physically based distributed model has been developed by integrating a grid-based distributed kinematic wave rainfall-runoff model with an infinite slope stability approach. The model was forced by the satellite-based near real-time half-hourly CMORPH global rainfall product prepared by NOAA-CPC. The method combines the following two model outputs necessary for identifying where and when shallow landslides may potentially occur in the catchment: (1) the time-invariant spatial distribution of areas susceptible to slope instability map, for which the river catchment is divided into stability classes according to the critical relative soil saturation; this output is designed to portray the effect of quasi-static land surface variables and soil strength properties on slope instability and (2) a produced map linked with spatiotemporally varying hydrologic properties to provide a time-varying estimate of susceptibility to slope movement in response to rainfall. The proposed hydrological model predicts the dynamic of soil saturation in each grid element. The stored water in each grid element is then used for updating the relative soil saturation and analyzing the slope stability. A grid of slope is defined to be unstable when the relative soil saturation becomes higher than the critical level and is the basis for issuing a shallow landslide warning. The method was applied to past landslides in the upper Citarum River catchment (2,310 km²), Indonesia; the resulting time-invariant landslide susceptibility map shows good agreement with the spatial patterns of documented historical landslides (1985–2008). Application of the model to two recent shallow landslides shows that the model can successfully predict the effect of rainfall movement and intensity on the spatiotemporal dynamic of hydrological variables that trigger shallow landslides. Several hours before the landslides, the model predicted unstable conditions in some grids over and near the grids at which the actual shallow landslides occurred. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential applicability of the modeling system for shallow landslide disaster predictions and warnings.  相似文献