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1.
D. Lange J. Cembrano A. Rietbrock C. Haberland T. Dahm K. Bataille 《Tectonophysics》2008,455(1-4):14-24
A temporal seismic network recorded local seismicity along a 130 km long segment of the transpressional dextral strike-slip Liquiñe-Ofqui fault zone (LOFZ) in southern Chile. Seventy five shallow crustal events with magnitudes up to Mw 3.8 and depths shallower than 25 km were observed in an 11-month period mainly occurring in different clusters. Those clusters are spatially related to the LOFZ, to the volcanoes Chaitén, Michinmahuida and Corcovado, and to active faulting on secondary faults. Further activity along the LOFZ is indicated by individual events located in direct vicinity of the surface expression of the LOFZ. Focal mechanisms were calculated using deviatoric moment tensor inversion of body wave amplitude spectra which mostly yield strike-slip mechanisms indicating a NE–SW direction of the P-axis for the LOFZ at this latitude. The seismic activity reveals the present-day activity of the fault zone. The recent Mw 6.2 event near Puerto Aysén, Southern Chile at 45.4°S on April 21, 2007 shows that the LOFZ is also capable of producing large magnitude earthquakes and therefore imposing significant seismic hazard to this region. 相似文献
2.
Chris Bataille Henri Waisman Michel Colombier Laura Segafredo Jim Williams Frank Jotzo 《Climate Policy》2016,16(4):S7-S26
Constraining global average temperatures to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels will probably require global energy system emissions to be halved by 2050 and complete decarbonization by 2100. In the nationally orientated climate policy framework codified under the Paris Agreement, each nation must decide the scale and method of their emissions reduction contribution while remaining consistent with the global carbon budget. This policy process will require engagement amongst a wide range of stakeholders who have very different visions for the physical implementation of deep decarbonization. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) has developed a methodology, building on the energy, climate and economics literature, to structure these debates based on the following principles: country-scale analysis to capture specific physical, economic and political circumstances to maximize policy relevance, a long-term perspective to harmonize short-term decisions with the long-term objective and detailed sectoral analysis with transparent representation of emissions drivers through a common accounting framework or ‘dashboard’. These principles are operationalized in the creation of deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), which involve technically detailed, sector-by-sector maps of each country’s decarbonization transition, backcasting feasible pathways from 2050 end points. This article shows how the sixteen DDPP country teams, covering 74% of global energy system emissions, used this method to collectively restrain emissions to a level consistent with the 2 °C target while maintaining development aspirations and reflecting national circumstances, mainly through efficiency, decarbonization of energy carriers (e.g. electricity, hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic gas) and switching to these carriers. The cross-cutting analysis of country scenarios reveals important enabling conditions for the transformation, pertaining to technology research and development, investment, trade and global and national policies.Policy relevanceIn the nation-focused global climate policy framework codified in the Paris Agreement, the purpose of the DDPP and DDPs is to provide a common method by which global and national governments, business, civil society and researchers in each country can communicate, compare and debate differing concrete visions for deep decarbonization in order to underpin the necessary societal and political consensus to design and implement short-term policy packages that are consistent with long-term global decarbonization. 相似文献
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This paper is concerned with the thermodynamic theory of solution and precipitation processes in wet crustal rocks and with the mechanism of steady pressure-solution slip in contact zones, such as grain-to-grain contacts, fracture surfaces, and permeable gouge layers, that are infiltrated by a mobile aqueous solution phase. A local dissipation jump condition at the phase boundary is fundamental to identifying the thermodynamic force driving the solution and precipitation process and is used here in setting up linear phenomenological relations to model near-equilibrium phase transformation kinetics. The local thermodynamic equilibrium of a stressed pure solid in contact with its melt or solution phase is governed by Gibbs's relation, which is rederived here, in a manner emphasizing its independence of constitutive assumptions for the solid while neglecting surface tension and diffusion in the solid. Fluid-infiltrated contact zones, such as those formed by rough surfaces, cannot generally be in thermodynamic equilibrium, especially during an ongoing process of pressure-solution slip, and the existing equilibrium formulations are incorrect in overlooking dissipative processes tending to eliminate fluctuations in superficial free energies due to stress concentrations near asperities, defects, or impurities. Steady pressure-solution slip is likely to exhibit a nonlinear dependence of slip rate on shear stress and effective normal stress, due to a dependence of the contact-zone state on the latter. Given that this dependence is negligible within some range, linear relations for pressure-solution slip can be derived for the limiting cases of diffusion-controlled and interface-reaction-controlled rates. A criterion for rate control by one of these mechanisms is set by the magnitude of the dimensionless quantityk/2C
pD, wherek is the interfacial transfer coefficient, is the mean diffusion path length,C
p is the solubility at pressurep, andD is the mass diffusivity. 相似文献
4.
Energy models are essential for the development of national or regional deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), providing the necessary analytical framework to systematically explore the system transitions that are required. However, this is challenging due to the long time horizon, the numerous data requirements and the need for transparent, credible approaches that can provide insights into complex transitions.This article explores how this challenge has been met to date, based on a review of the literature and the experiences of practitioners, drawing in particular on the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP), a collaborative effort by 16 national modelling teams. The article finds that there are a range of modelling approaches that have been used across different country contexts, chosen for different reasons, with recognized strengths and weaknesses. The key motivations for use of a given approach include being fit-for-purpose, having in-country capacity and the intertwined goals of transparency, communicability and policy credibility.From the review, a conceptual decision framework for DDP analysis is proposed. This three step process incorporates policy priorities, national characteristics and the model-agnostic principles that drive model choices, considering the needs and capabilities of developed and developing countries, and subject to data and analytical practicalities. Finally an agenda for the further development of modelling approaches is proposed, which is vital for strengthening capacity. These include a focus on model linking, incorporating behaviour and policy impacts, the flexibility to handle distinctive energy systems, incorporating wider environmental constraints and the development of entry-level tools. The latter three are critical for application in developing countries.Policy relevanceFollowing the Paris Agreement, it is essential that modelling approaches are available to enable governments to plan how to decarbonize their economies in the long term. This article takes stock of current practices, identifies the strengths and weaknesses of existing approaches and proposes how capacity can be strengthened. It also provides some practical guidance on the process of choosing modelling approaches, given national priorities and circumstances. This is particularly relevant as countries revisit their Nationally Determined Contributions to meet the global objective of remaining well below a 2°C average global temperature increase. 相似文献
5.
Non-linear elastic response of rocks has been widely observed in laboratory, but very few seismic studies are reported in the literature, even though it is the most natural environment where this feature could be observed. Analytic solutions to the non-linear wave propagation phenomena are not readily available, and there is a need to use approximated techniques. It is clear that when a seismic wave propagates through a homogeneous non-linear elastic media, it will be perturbed by the non-linearity. This perturbation can be treated as a source of scattering, spreading the energy of the primary wave in space and time, contributing to the seismic coda. This is in some sense similar to the effect of heterogeneities. The properties of the coda due to the non-linearity depend on the amount of non-linearity and the seismic moment. Using a perturbation approach we calculate the amplitude of the scattered waves, and show that it can describe reasonably well the main features of real seismic codas. 相似文献
6.
D. Legrand S. Barrientos K. Bataille J. Cembrano A. Pavez 《Continental Shelf Research》2011,31(3-4):154-161
A seismic swarm of more than 7200 earthquakes occurred in Aysen Fjord, southern Chile, from January to June 2007. It started suddenly on 23 January 2007 with an earthquake of magnitude Mw=5.3, followed by five earthquakes with magnitudes increasing from Mw=5.2 to 6.2 within three months. Two large earthquakes of magnitudes Mw=6.1 and 6.2 occurred on 02 and 21 April 2007, respectively. The latest earthquake generated landslides that induced a tsunami within the fjord, killing 10 people. This swarm has been examined using international seismic catalogues and seismicity located with a local seismic network; in particular its double tectonic and volcanic origin has been explored. All the focal mechanisms are compatible with the long- and short-term tectonics of the Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault Zone, a major intra-arc fault system of the Patagonian fjord land. The space, time, and size distributions of these earthquakes, that occurred within an active volcanic area revealed by the presence of several Holocene monogenetic volcanoes, may be explained both by fluid-induced (magma and/or hydrothermal fluids) activity combined with tectonic activity. The co-existence of these two tectonic and volcanic phenomena is a good example of retroactive links between fluids and tectonic fractures. 相似文献
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Emissions from the production of iron and steel could constitute a significant share of a 2°C global emissions budget (around 19% under the IEA 2DS scenario). They need to be reduced, and this could be difficult under nationally based climate policy approaches. We compare a new set of nationally based modelling (the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project) with best practice and technical limit benchmarks for iron and steel and cement emissions. We find that 2050 emissions from iron and steel and cement production represent an average 0.28?tCO2 per capita in nationally based modelling results, very close to the technical limit benchmark of 0.21?tCO2 per capita, and over 2.5 times lower than the best practice benchmark of 0.72?tCO2 per capita. This suggests that national projections may be overly optimistic about achievable emissions reductions in the absence of global carbon pricing and an international research and development effort to develop low emissions technologies for emissions-intensive products. We also find that equal per capita emissions targets, often the basis of proposals for how global emissions budgets should be allocated, would be inadequate without global emissions trading. These results show that a nationally based global climate policy framework, as has been confirmed in the Paris Agreement, could lead to risks of overshooting global emissions targets for some countries and carbon leakage. Tailored approaches such as border taxes, sectoral emissions trading or carbon taxes, and consumption-based carbon pricing can help, but each faces difficulties. Ultimately, global efforts are needed to improve technology and material efficiency in emissions-intensive commodities manufacturing and use. Those efforts could be supported by technology standards and a globally coordinated R&D effort, and strengthened by the adoption of global emissions budgets for emissions-intensive traded goods.Policy relevanceThis article presents new empirical findings on global iron and steel and cement production in a low-carbon world economy, demonstrates the risks associated with a nationally based global climate policy framework as has been confirmed in the Paris Agreement, and analyses policy options to deal with those risks. 相似文献
9.
Numerous paleoecological questions concern the mobility of ancient fauna in eastern Beringia. Strontium (Sr) isotope ratio (87Sr/86Sr) analysis has emerged as a powerful tracer for determining the provenance of ancient biological materials. However, it is important to characterize 87Sr/86Sr variation across a landscape. We measured the 87Sr/86Sr composition of teeth from present-day, herbivorous rodents (n = 162) sampled from across eastern Beringia to estimate bio-available 87Sr/86Sr values. We compiled these data with the very limited number of previously published 87Sr/86Sr values from the region. We then used this dataset and a machine learning, random-forest regression to predict bio-available 87Sr/86Sr variations across eastern Beringia. As a case study using our new 87Sr/86Sr map (isoscape), we measured the 87Sr/86Sr and oxygen stable isotope values (δ18O) of five radiocarbon-dated steppe bison from eastern Beringia and compared these to our 87Sr/86Sr isoscape and a δ18O isoscape to estimate the probable landscape use of these ancient fauna. Our model and isoscape provide important foundations for a wide range of additional applications, including studies of the paleo-mobility of other fauna, ancient people and present-day fauna in eastern Beringia. 相似文献
10.
Steve Pye Christophe McGlade Chris Bataille Gabrial Anandarajah Amandine Denis-Ryan Vladimir Potashnikov 《Climate Policy》2016,16(4):S92-S109
The role of fossils fuels in national economies will change radically over the next 40 years under a strong climate regime. However, capturing this changing role through national-based analyses is challenging due to the global nature of fossil fuel demand and resulting trade patterns. This article sets out the limitations of existing national-scale decarbonization analyses in adequately capturing global conditions and explores how the introduction of a global modelling framework could provide vital insights, particularly for those countries that are dependent on fossil fuel exports or imports.The article shows that fossil fuel use will significantly decline by 2050, although gas will have an important transition role. This leaves large fossil fuel exporters exposed, the extent of which is determined by mitigation action in different regions and especially by the pathways adopted by the larger Asian economies. We find that global-scale models provide critical insights that complement the more detailed national analyses and should play a stronger role in informing deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs). They also provide an important basis for exploring key uncertainties around technology uptake, mitigation rates and how this plays out in the demand for fossil fuels. However, use of global models also calls for improved representation of country specifics in global models, which can oversimplify national economic and political realities. Using both model scales provides important insights that are complementary but that can challenge the other’s orthodoxy. However, neither can replace the other’s strengths.Policy relevance:In recent years, how global fossil fuel markets will evolve under different climate regimes has been subject to much debate and analysis. This debate includes whether investments in fossil fuel production still make sense or will be exposed in the future to liabilities associated with high carbon prices. This is important for governments who need to develop coherent policy in relation to fossil fuel sectors and their role as drivers of economic growth and in providing for domestic energy needs. This article argues that national analyses need to be fully cognizant of the global-scale transition, which can be informed by using a multi-scale modelling approach. 相似文献