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This paper investigates how using different regional climate model (RCM) simulations affects climate change impacts on hydrology in northern Europe using an offline hydrological model. Climate change scenarios from an ensemble of seven RCMs, two global climate models (GCMs), two global emissions scenarios and two RCMs of varying resolution were used. A total of 15 climate change simulations were included in studies on the Lule River basin in Northern Sweden. Two different approaches to transfer climate change from the RCMs to hydrological models were tested. A rudimentary estimate of change in hydropower potential on the Lule River due to climate change was also made. The results indicate an overall increase in river flow, earlier spring peak flows and an increase in hydropower potential. The two approaches for transferring the signal of climate change to the hydrological impacts model gave similar mean results, but considerably different seasonal dynamics, a result that is highly relevant for other types of climate change impacts studies. 相似文献
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Bengt Gustafsson Jorge Meléndez Martin Asplund David Yong 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2010,328(1-2):185-191
The question whether the solar chemical composition is typical for solar-type stars is analysed by comparing the Sun with different stellar samples, including a sample of stars with very similar parameters, solar twins. Although typical in terms of overall metallicity for stars of solar age and galactic orbit, the solar atmosphere is found to have abundances, as compared with solar twins, that indicate that its gas has once been affected by dust formation and dust separation. It is concluded that this may be related to the formation of the solar planetary system and its special properties. 相似文献
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If we are to limit global warming to 2 °C, all sectors in all countries must reduce their emissions of GHGs to zero not later than 2060–2080. Zero-emission options have been less explored and are less developed in the energy-intensive basic materials industries than in other sectors. Current climate policies have not yet motivated major efforts to decarbonize this sector, and it has been largely protected from climate policy due to the perceived risks of carbon leakage and a focus on short-term reduction targets to 2020. We argue that the future global climate policy regime must develop along three interlinked and strategic lines to facilitate a deep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries. First, the principle of common but differentiated responsibility must be reinterpreted to allow for a dialogue on fairness and the right to development in relation to industry. Second, a greater focus on the development, deployment and transfer of technology in this sector is called for. Third, the potential conflicts between current free trade regimes and motivated industrial policies for deep decarbonization must be resolved. One way forward is to revisit the idea of sectoral approaches with a broader scope, including not only emission reductions, but recognizing the full complexity of low-carbon transitions in energy-intensive industries. A new approach could engage industrial stakeholders, support technology research, development and demonstration and facilitate deployment through reducing the risk for investors. The Paris Agreement allows the idea of sectoral approaches to be revisited in the interests of reaching our common climate goals.Policy relevanceDeep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries will be necessary to meet the 2 °C target. This requires major innovation efforts over a long period. Energy-intensive industries face unique challenges from both innovation and technical perspectives due to the large scale of facilities, the character of their global markets and the potentially high mitigation costs. This article addresses these challenges and discusses ways in which the global climate policy framework should be developed after the Paris Agreement to better support transformative change in the energy-intensive industries. 相似文献
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The precipitation patterns of 6 keV protons at 10° and 80° pitch angles have been mapped at altitudes <1500 km from the ESRO 1A and 1B spacecraft. Equatorward of the trapping boundary, a region of isotropic precipitation, bounded on its equatorward border by a region of anisotropic (depleted loss cone) precipitation, is always observed. The latitudinal location of this transition appears to be nearly spatially coincident with the plasmapause. Similar precipitation patterns are shown to exist for higher energy protons. The general absence of enhanced precipitation at the plasmapause suggests that the inner boundary of the ring current is not usually produced by an enhanced proton pitch angle diffusion process. The isotropic precipitation observed beyond the plasmapause is most consistent with the occurence of an electrostatic instability throughout the ring current zone. It is doubtful whether the proposed cold Li plasma seeding experiments beyond the plasmapause could significantly increase the observed natural proton precipitation rates. 相似文献
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F.T. Berkey V.M. Driatskiy K. Henriksen B. Hultqvist D.H. Jelly T.I. Shchuka A. Theander J. Ylindemi 《Planetary and Space Science》1974,22(2):255-307
Sixty auroral absorption substorms (30 in IQSY and 30 in IASY) have been analysed on the basis of riometer-recordings taken at some 40 stations distributed over auroral, subauroral and polar cap latitudes. Synoptic maps showing isoabsorption curves have been produced every 15 min (sometimes every 5 min) of the 60 substorms; 705 maps altogether.Some of the results of the analysis are as follows.Initiation of a substorm most frequently occurs near midnight but may occur anywhere between early evening and late morning. The time of onset becomes earlier and the latitude of onset moves equatorward as the level of magnetic activity increases.The longitude expansion velocities are contained in the range 0.7–7 km/sec except for a few extreme values which exceed 20 km/sec.The auroral absorption eastward expansion velocity is smaller than the corresponding velocity of the boundary of the region of activation of the visual aurora after break up by a factor .The expansion velocity corresponds, in general, to drift velocities of electrons of energies in the range 50–300 keV but, for the extreme speeds, electron energies around 1 MeV are needed.Expansion of the absorption in the westward direction was seen in about half of the substorms studied. In about half of these, expansion along the auroral oval could be indentified, but in almost all of these cases some expansion in the auroral zone latitudes was also seen. In about an equal number of events, expansion was confined primarily to the auroral zone.The velocity of the westward expansion was about 1 km/sec along the auroral oval (i.e. approximately equal with the speed of the westward travelling surge) but about 2 km/sec along the auroral zone.The meridional expansion velocities found agree well with those measured for visual aurora (? 1 km/sec).The variability of the behaviour of different substorms is very large. To illuminate this the following may be mentioned, in addition to what has been stated above about the statistics.Although the absorption maximum practically always moves eastward from the initiation region, exceptions have been seen in which the maximum started moving west and in a later phase went eastward.Sometimes the absorption maximum stays in the injection area or very close to it, although in most cases it moves eastward into the dayside. In extreme eases it has been found to move more than 270° in the eastward direction.There are auroral absorption substorms in which injection seems to take place in more than one area simultaneously.The observations cannot all be understood in terms of gradient and curvature drift of electrons from a small area of injection only. A broad intrusion of hot plasma from the tail into the inner magnetosphere seems to be needed.No strong dependence of particle precipitation on the illumination of the upper ionosphere by sunlight was seen. The results do, therefore, not support the hypothesis of Brice and Lucas (1971) that cold plasma density increases, originating in the ionosphere, significantly increase the precipitation rate of energetic trapped particles. 相似文献
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Piret Cécile Dissanayake Nadun Gierke John S. Fornberg Bengt 《Mathematical Geosciences》2020,52(4):477-497
Mathematical Geosciences - A robust, high order modeling approach is introduced, based on the finite difference-based radial basis functions method, for solving the groundwater flow equation in the... 相似文献