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Ethiopia??s agriculture is predominantly rainfed and hence any irregularity in weather conditions has adverse welfare implications. Using panel data, this paper analyzes the effect of rainfall shocks on Ethiopian rural households?? food security and vulnerability over time while controlling for a range of other factors. To this end, we generate a time-variant household food security index which is developed by principal components analysis. Based on this index, households are classified into relative food security groups and their socioeconomic differences are assessed. The exploratory results show that compared to the less secured households, the more secured ones have male and literate household heads, tend to have a greater number of economically active household members, own more livestock, experience better rainfall outcome, and participate in local savings groups. Using the food security index as the dependent variable, we use a fixed effects instrumental variable regression model to identify determinants of households?? food security over time and find that rainfall variability is an important factor. Moreover, household size, participation in local savings groups, and livestock ownership positively affect food security. Results from multinomial logistic regression model complement the fixed effects instrumental variable regression results by showing that the level and variability of rainfall are important determinants of persistent food insecurity and vulnerability. The results highlight the need for efficient risk reduction and mitigation programs to improve risk exposure and coping ability of rural households. Careful promotion of investment in infrastructure to support irrigation and water resources development is one aspect worth considering. 相似文献
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Recharge patterns, possible flow paths and the relative age of groundwater in the Akaki catchment in central Ethiopia have been investigated using stable environmental isotopes δ18O and δ2H and radioactive tritium (3H) coupled with conservative chloride measurements. Stable isotopic signatures are encoded in the groundwater solely from summer rainfall. Thus, groundwater recharge occurs predominantly in the summer months from late June to early September during the major Ethiopian rainy season. Winter recharge is lost through high evaporation–evapotranspiration within the unsaturated zone after relatively long dry periods of high accumulated soil moisture deficits. Chloride mass balance coupled with the isotope results demonstrates the presence of both preferential and piston flow groundwater recharge mechanisms. The stable and radioactive isotope measurements further revealed that groundwater in the Akaki catchment is found to be compartmentalized into zones. Groundwater mixing following the flow paths and topography is complicated by the lithologic complexity. An uncommon, highly depleted stable isotope and zero‐3H groundwater, observed in a nearly east–west stretch through the central sector of the catchment, is coincident with the Filwoha Fault zone. Here, deep circulating meteoric water has lost its isotopic content through exchange reactions with CO2 originating at deeper sources or it has been recharged with precipitation from a different rainfall regime with a depleted isotopic content. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Berhanu Gizaw 《Journal of African Earth Sciences》1996,22(4):391-402
Thermal waters in the Main Ethiopian Rift Valley are characterized by high Na, bicarbonate and fluoride concentrations, and near-neutral to alkaline pH. Sodium, bicarbonate and fluoride are positively correlated in the waters. The principal reason for the bicarbonate in the area is the high rate of carbon dioxide outgassing. This, combined with acid volcanics, geothermal heating, low Ca and low salinity, is also one of the causes of high fluoride in this part of the active volcanic zone of the East African Rift. Evaporative concentration is responsible for the high salinity, alkalinity and fluoride in the closed-basin lakes of the region. The waters are undersaturated with respect to fluoride and anhydrite. Calcium tends to be fixed in Ca bearing minerals such as calcite and epidote, which are abundant in the system. Hence, it appears that fluoride is a mobile component in acid volcanic geothermal systems. 相似文献
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The assessment of water resources in the Rift Valley environment is important for population, agriculture and energy-related issues and depends on a good understanding of the relationship between freshwater lakes and regional groundwater. This can be hampered by the amount of fluid-rock interaction which occurs throughout the rift, obscuring original hydrochemical signatures. However, O and H stable isotope ratios can be used as tracers of infiltration over sometimes considerable distances, while showing that the volcanic edifices of the rift floor have varying effects on groundwater flow patterns. Specific cases from Kenya and Ethiopia are considered, including Lakes Naivasha, Baringo, Awasa and Zwai.In addition to their physical tracing role, stable isotopes can reveal information about processes of fluid-rock interaction. The general lack of O isotope shifting in rift hydrothermal systems suggests a high water:rock ratio, with the implication that these systems are mature. Carbon isotope studies on the predominantly bicarbonate waters of the rift show how they evolve from dilute meteoric recharge to highly alkaline waters, via the widespread silicate hydrolysis promoted by the flux of mantle carbon dioxide which occurs in most parts of the rift. There appears to be only minor differences in the C cycle between Kenya and Ethiopia. 相似文献
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Evapotranspiration (ET) is an essential component of the hydrological cycle and plays a critical role in water resource management. However, ET is often overlooked in order to transform rainfall to runoff for better streamflow simulation. Hydrological models are commonly used to estimate areal actual evapotranspiration (AET) after calibration against observed discharge. However, classical approaches are often inadequate to appropriately simulate other hydrologic components. Hence, it is important to introduce natural heterogeneity to enhance hydrological processes and reduce water balance errors. In this study, the effectiveness of introducing a constant crop coefficient (Kc), flux tower‐based Kc, and leaf area index (LAI) to three hydrological models (Three‐Parametric Hydrologic Model [TPHM], Génie Rural à 4 paramètres Journalier [GR4J], and Catchment hydrologic cycle Assessment Tool [CAT]) is assessed for the simulation of daily streamflow and AET in a mountainous mixed forest watershed (8.54 km2) in South Korea. The results show that the streamflow simulations after introduction of Kc and LAI to the original models are quite similar. However, the effectiveness of the AET estimation was significantly enhanced after introduction of the flux tower‐based Kc and LAI. The information criterion computed to compare the models reveals that the flux tower‐based Kc‐simulated AET demonstrated better agreement with the observed AET. The Pearson's correlation coefficients (R2) of the TPHM (8%), GR4J (55%), and CAT (55%) models also showed improvements that were greater than the constant based Kc simulation. Similarly, the limitations of the three models with respect to capturing seasonal variation as well as high and low flows were enhanced after the introduction of the flux tower‐based Kc, which adequately reproduced hydrological processes with minimum water balance errors and bias. A regression analysis revealed the potential of estimating Kc as a linear function of LAI (R2 = 0.84). The results of this study indicate that introduction of Kc and LAI to the conceptual rainfall–runoff models can be considered an effective approach to reduce water balance errors and uncertainties in hydrological models and improve the reliability of climate change studies and water resource management. 相似文献
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Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). The contemporaneous associations are further examined using partial Granger causality to determine presence of causal linkage between any of the climate variables. This analysis reveals that only the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly has direct causal links with spring rainfall over Ethiopia and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Africa inspite of the strong secular covariance of spring rainfall, SST in parts of subtropical Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean and MSLP. High secular rainfall variance and statistically significant linear trend show consistently that there is a massive decline in spring rain over southern Ethiopia. This happened concurrently with significant buildup of MSLP over East Africa, northeastern Africa including parts of the Arabian Peninsula, some parts of central Africa and SST warming over all ocean basins with the exception of the ENSO regions. The east-west pressure gradient in response to the Indian Ocean warming led to secular southeasterly winds over the Arabian Sea, easterly over central Africa and equatorial Atlantic. These flows weakened climatological northeasterly flow over the Arabian Sea and southwesterly flow over equatorial Atlantic and Congo basins which supply moisture into the eastern Africa regions in spring. The secular divergent flow at low level is concurrent with upper level convergence due to the easterly secular anomalous flow. The mechanisms through which the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly modulates rainfall are further explored in the context of East Africa using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to mixed-layer oceanic model. The rainfall anomaly (with respect to control simulation), forced by the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly and averaged over the 30-year period, exhibits prevalence of dry conditions over East and equatorial Africa in agreement with observation. The atmospheric response to secular SST warming anomaly led to divergent flow at low levels and subsidence at the upper troposphere over regions north of 5° S on the continent and vice versa over the Indian Ocean. This surface difluence over East Africa, in addition to its role in suppressing convective activity, deprives the region of moisture supply from the Indian Ocean as well as the Atlantic and Congo basins. 相似文献
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Molla Demlie Stefan Wohnlich Frank Wisotzky Birhanu Gizaw 《Hydrogeology Journal》2007,15(6):1169-1181
Hydrochemical, multivariate statistical and inverse hydrogeochemical modeling techniques were used to investigate groundwater
recharge, flow and the hydrochemical evolution within the Akaki volcanic aquifer system, central Ethiopia. The hydrochemical
and multivariate statistical techniques are mutually supportive and the extracted information was analyzed together with environmental
isotope data. Results reveal five spatial groundwater zones with defined hydrochemical facies, residence times, stable isotopic
signals and hydrochemical evolution. These zones are designated as the (1) Intoto, (2) central, (3) Filwuha fault, (4) south
zones and (5) a highly polluted sub-sector identified within the central zone. Both the hydrochemical and multivariate statistical
analyses have shown the central sub-sector as being spite of differentially polluted by , Cl− and and its tritium content shows recent recharge. Due to the fact that the main recharge source is precipitation, the hydrochemical
and environmental isotope data clearly indicated that the central and southern sectors are also recharged from domestic waste
water and leakage from water mains and reservoirs. Inverse hydrogeochemical modeling demonstrated reactions of silicate minerals
in a CO2 open system and precipitation of kaolinite, chalcedony, and rare calcite satisfy the observed change in water chemistry from
north to south following the regional flow direction.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Résumé Des techniques relevant de l’hydrochimie, des statistiques multivariées et de la modélisation inverse hydrogéochimique, ont été utilisées dans le cadre de l’étude de la recharge des eaux souterraines, de l’écoulement et de l’évolution hydrochimique dans le système volcanique aquifère d’Akaki au centre de l’Ethiopie. Les techniques hydrochimiques et multivariées se supportent mutuellement et l’information extraite a été analysée avec les données isotopiques environnementales, des temps de résidence, des signaux isotopiques stables et une évolution hydrochimique. Ces zones ont été désignées comme le (1) Intoto, (2) le centre, (3) la faille de Filwuha, (4) les zones sud et (5) un sous-secteur fortement pollué identifié dans la zone centrale. Les analyses statistiques hydrochimiques et multivariées ont montré que le sous-secteur central a été différemment pollué par , Cl− et , tandis que la teneur en tritium montre une recharge récente. Malgré le fait que la principale source de recharge soit les précipitations, les données hydrochimiques et isotopiques indiquent clairement que les secteurs centres et sud sont également rechargés par les eaux usées domestiques et les fuites de réservoirs et canalisations d’eau. La modélisation hydrogéochimique inverse a démontré les réactions des minéraux silicatés dans un système ouvert au CO2, et la précipitation de kaolinite, de calcédoine, et la rareté de la calcite satisfont les changements observés dans la chimie de l’eau du nord vers le sud en suivant la direction régionale de l’écoulement.
Resumen Se utilizaron la hidroquímica y técnicas de modelación hidrogeoquímica inversa y estadística multivariada, para investigar la recarga del agua subterránea, el flujo y la evolución hidroquímica, dentro del sistema acuífero volcánico Akaki, Etiopía Central. La hidroquímica y las técnicas estadísticas multivariadas se complementan entre si y la información así extraída se analizó junto con los datos de isótopos ambientales. Los resultados revelan cinco zonas diferentes de agua subterránea, con facies hidroquímicas, tiempos de residencia, improntas isotópicas estables y una evolución hidroquímica definidas. Estas zonas se designan como (1) Intoto, (2) Central, (3) Falla de Filwuha, (4) las Zonas del sur y (5) un sub-sector altamente contaminado identificado dentro de la zona central. Tanto los análisis estadísticos multivariados como la hidroquímica, han mostrado al sub-sector central como contaminado diferencialmente por , Cl− y y su contenido de tritio muestra una recarga reciente. A pesar del hecho que la fuente principal de recarga es la precipitación, los datos de hidroquímica y de isótopos ambientales indican que los sectores central y del sur, también se recargan a partir de agua doméstica usada y del goteo de las conducciones del acueducto y de sus reservorios. El modelamiento hidrogeoquímico inverso demostró reacciones de minerales silicatados en un sistema de CO2 abierto, y la precipitación de caolinita, calcedonia, y rara vez de calcita, satisfacen el cambio observado en la química de agua del norte a sur, siguiendo la dirección del flujo regional.相似文献
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Altayeb Raga 王坚红 Abdoul Aziz Saidou Chaibou Muhammad Arsha Mohammed AbdAllah Birhanu Asmerom Habtemicheal 《气象科学》2022,42(6):769-780
基于WRF-chem模式对北非2018年3月下旬的典型强沙尘暴过程进行模拟,分析了此次强沙尘发生季节、持续时间、局地特征以及传输路径的关键动力系统与动力机制。鉴于起沙是沙尘暴发生的关键点之一,并且起沙主要取决于风力和下垫面沙源性质,本文测试了三种起沙参数化方案的影响,并将模拟结果与卫星MODIS监测及其再分析资料MERRA-2进行了对比,又经系列统计方法检验。结果显示,宏观思路的起沙方案GOCART比AFWA和UoC两种起沙方案更适合此次大尺度强沙尘暴数值模拟(锋面跨度接近60个经度)。综合沙尘暴关键系统的动力机制分析和数值模拟结果显示,强沙尘暴关键系统为深厚的西风槽、沙尘冷锋锋面和锋后的地面高压反气旋。北非中部深厚的西风槽为后倾槽,该系统稳定,造成沙尘暴持续时间长。沙尘暴锋后反气旋中的下沉气流抑制了扬沙向高层扩散,造成低层能见度恶劣。沙尘锋区结合了动力、热动力以及湿热动力不稳定,因此锋区风力大,地面沙尘驱动力强。而西风槽和强大反气旋依托环流形势,提供了沙尘传输到三大洲的长途输送力。 相似文献
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