Seasonal isotopic shifts in fish of the Pantanal wetland,Brazil   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Karl M. Wantzen  Francisco de Arruda Machado  Maren Voss  Hinnerk Boriss  Wolfgang J. Junk 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2002,64(3):239-251

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Climate change and modelling of extreme temperatures in Switzerland   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Boriss Siliverstovs  Rainald Ötsch  Claudia Kemfert  Carlo C. Jaeger  Armin Haas  Hans Kremers 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(2):311-326

This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of the heat wave of the summer 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 is not that statistically improbable if an appropriate methodology is used for dealing with nonstationarity.  相似文献