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Du Duc Tien Thanh Ngo-Duc Hoang Thi Mai Chanh Kieu 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2013,122(1-2):55-64
This study examines the dependence of the tropical cyclone (TC) intensity errors on the track errors in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. By using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global final analysis as the initial and boundary conditions for cloud-resolving simulations of TC cases that have small track errors, it is found that the 2- and 3-day intensity errors in the North Atlantic basin can be reduced to 15 and 19 % when the track errors decrease to 55 and 76 %, respectively, whereas the 1-day intensity error shows no significant reduction despite more than 30 % decrease of the 1-day track error. For the North-Western Pacific basin, the percentage of intensity reduction is somewhat similar with the 2- and 3-day intensity errors improved by about 15 and 19 %, respectively. This suggests that future improvement of the TC track forecast skill in the WRF-ARW model will be beneficial to the intensity forecast. However, the substantially smaller percentages of intensity improvement than those of the track error improvement indicate that ambient environment tends to play a less important role in determining the TC intensity as compared to other factors related to the vortex initialization or physics representations in the WRF-ARW model. 相似文献
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This study examines the roles of the multi-physics approach in accounting for model errors for typhoon forecasts with the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). Experiments with forecasts of Typhoon Conson (2010) using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model show that use of the WRF’s multiple physical parameterization schemes to represent the model uncertainties can help the LETKF provide better forecasts of Typhoon Conson in terms of the forecast errors, the ensemble spread, the root mean square errors, the cross-correlation between mass and wind field as well as the coherent structure of the ensemble spread along the storm center. Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model show that the optimum number of the multi-physics ensemble is roughly equal to the number of combinations of different physics schemes assigned in the multi-physics ensemble. Additional idealized experiments with the Lorenz 40-variable model to isolate the dual roles of the multi-physics ensemble in correcting model errors and expanding the local ensemble space show that the multi-physics approach appears to be more essential in augmenting the local rank representation of the LETKF algorithm rather than directly accounting for model errors during the early cycles. The results in this study suggest that the multi-physics approach is a good option for short-range forecast applications with full physics models in which the spinup of the ensemble Kalman filter may take too long for the ensemble spread to capture efficiently model errors and cross-correlations among model variables. 相似文献
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The seismic reflection method provides high-resolution data that are especially useful for discovering mineral deposits under deep cover. A hindrance to the wider adoption of the seismic reflection method in mineral exploration is that the data are often interpreted differently and independently of other geophysical data unless common earth models are used to link the methods during geological interpretation. Model-based inversion of post-stack seismic data allows rock units with common petrophysical properties to be identified and permits increased bandwidth to enhance the spatial resolution of the acoustic-impedance model. However, as seismic reflection data are naturally bandlimited, any inversion scheme depends upon an initial model, and must deal with non-unique solutions for the inversion. Both issues can be largely overcome by using constraints and integrating prior information. We exploit the abilities of fuzzy c-means clustering to constrain and to include prior information in the inversion. The use of a clustering constraint for petrophysical values pushes the inversion process to select models that are primarily composed of several discrete rock units and the fuzzy c-means algorithm allows some properties to overlap by varying degrees. Imposing the fuzzy clustering techniques in the inversion process allows solutions that are similar to the natural geologic patterns that often have a few rock units represented by distinct combinations of petrophysical characteristics. Our tests on synthetic models, with clear and distinct boundaries, show that our methodology effectively recovers the true model. Accurate model recovery can be obtained even when the data are highly contaminated by random noise, where the initial model is homogeneous, or there is minimal prior petrophysical information available. We demonstrate the abilities of fuzzy c-means clustering to constrain and to include prior information in the acoustic-impedance inversion of a challenging magnetotelluric/seismic data set from the Carlin Gold District, USA. Using fuzzy c-means guided inversion of magnetotelluric data to create a starting model for acoustic-impedance proved important in obtaining the best result. Our inversion results correlate with borehole data and provided a better basis for geological interpretation than the seismic reflection images alone. Low values of the acoustic impedance in the basement rocks were shown to be prospective by geochemical analysis of rock cores, as would be predicted for later gold mineralization in weak, decalcified rocks. 相似文献
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AbstractEnvironmental challenges in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta characterized by adverse impacts of climate change, upstream hydropower development and localized dyke expansion present imperatives for rural farmers to “learn to adapt.” However, little is known about how learning contributes to improving their capacity in adapting to these “wicked” problems. This study investigates potential effects of farmers’ learning on their adaptive capacity, utilizing nine focus group discussions, 33 interviews, and a structured survey of 300 farmers. The exploratory factor analysis produced two factors for social learning: (1) learning through social interactions and (2) self-reflection, and one factor for adaptive capacity. The regression results show that the social learning factors have significantly positive effects on adaptive capacity. Farmers with a higher level of social learning are likely to demonstrate higher adaptive capacity. The findings call for policy considerations to promote learning in a broader context of the delta to enhance local capacity. 相似文献
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Chanh Q. Kieu 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2012,115(1-2):47-56
The radius of the maximum tangential wind (RMW) associated with the hurricane primary circulation has been long known to undergo continuous contraction during the hurricane development. In this study, we document some characteristic behaviors of the RMW contraction in a series of ensemble real-time simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) and in idealized experiments using the Rotunno and Emanuel (Mon Weather Rev 137:1770–1789, 1987) axisymmetric hurricane model. Of specific interest is that the contraction appears to slow down abruptly at the middle of the hurricane intensification, and the RMW becomes nearly stationary subsequently, despite the rapidly strengthening rotational flows. A kinematic model is then presented to examine such behaviors of the RMW in which necessary conditions for the RMW to stop contracting are examined. Further use of the Emanuel’s (J Atmos Sci 43:585–605, 1986) analytical hurricane theory reveals a connection between the hurricane maximum potential intensity and the hurricane eye size, an issue that has not been considered adequately in previous studies. 相似文献
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The impermeability of isentropic surfaces by the potential vorticity substance (PVS) has often been used to help understand the generation of potential vorticity in the presence of diabatic heating and friction.In this study,we examined singularities of isentropic surfaces that may develop in the presence of diabatic heating and the fictitious movements of the isentropic surfaces that are involved in deriving the PVS impermeability theorem.Our results show that such singularities could occur in the upper troposphere as a result of intense convective-scale motion,at the cloud top due to radiative cooling,or within the well-mixed boundary layer.These locally ill-defined conditions allow PVS to penetrate across an isentropic surface.We conclude that the PVS impermeability theorem is generally valid for the stably stratified atmosphere in the absence of diabatic heating. 相似文献
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Chanh Kieu 《大气科学进展》2016,33(8):987-995
The merging of multiple vortices is a fundamental process of the dynamics of Earth’s atmosphere and oceans. In this study, the interaction of like-signed vortices is analytically and numerically examined in a framework of two-dimensional inviscid barotropic flows. It is shown that barotropic vortex interaction turns out to be more intricate than simple merging scenarios often assumed in previous studies. Some particular configurations exist in which the vortex merging process is never complete despite strong interaction of like-signed vortices, regardless of the strengths or distances between the vortices. While the conditions for a complete vortex merging process introduced in this study appear to be too strict for most practical applications, this study suggests that careful criteria for vortex mergers should be properly defined when simulating the interaction of vortices, because the merging may not always result in a final enhanced circulation at the end of the interaction, as usually assumed in the literature. 相似文献
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Aly Al Samouly Chanh Nien Luong Zhong Li Spencer Smith Brian Baetz Maysara Ghaith 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(13):524
Climate ensembles utilize outputs from multiple climate models to estimate future climate patterns. These multi-model ensembles generally outperform individual climate models. In this paper, the performance of seven global climate model and regional climate model combinations were evaluated for Ontario, Canada. Two multi-model ensembles were developed and tested, one based on the mean of the seven combinations and the other based on the median of the same seven models. The performance of the multi-model ensembles were evaluated on 12 meteorological stations, as well as for the entire domain of Ontario, using three temperature variables (average surface temperature, maximum surface temperature, and minimum surface temperature). Climate data for developing and validating the multi-model ensembles were collected from three major sources: the North American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment, the Digital Archive of Canadian Climatological Data, and the Climactic Research Unit’s TS v4.00 dataset. The results showed that the climate ensemble based on the mean generally outperformed the one based on the median, as well as each of the individual models. Future predictions under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario were generated using the multi-model ensemble based on the mean. This study provides credible and useful information for climate change mitigation and adaption in Ontario. 相似文献
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