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Tim Stott 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2005,30(3):349-357
Erosion rates surveyed using 230 erosion pins on 24 occasions over eight years (1994–2001) on forested stream banks, tributaries and forest ditches in the 0·89 km2 Nant Tanllwyth catchment, part of the Hafren Forest on Plynlimon, mid‐Wales, showed statistically significant increases of up to 40 mm a?1 in mean erosion rates during the two‐year period in which environmentally sensitive plot‐scale timber harvesting operations took place (1996–97). In the four years following timber harvesting mean erosion rates at all sites recovered to levels that were lower than before the harvesting operations began. This is attributed to increased light levels, following canopy removal, allowing vegetation to colonize exposed banks. There was a statistically significant relationship (p < 0·05) between mean erosion rate in 2000–01 (four years after harvesting) and percentage vegetation cover at erosion monitoring sites in the clearfelled (south tributaries) area though the same relationship did not hold for sites on the mainstream banks or for sites on the north (mature forest) ditch sites. The implications of natural vegetation colonization for management of such streams are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The implicit time integration scheme of Stott and Harwood (1993) was proposed as an efficient scheme for use in three-dimensional chemical models of the atmosphere. The scheme was designed for chemistry schemes using chemical families, in which species with short lifetimes are grouped into longer-lived families. Further study with more complex chemistry, more species and reactions showed the scheme to be non-convergent and unstable under certain conditions; particularly for the perturbed chemical scenarios of polar stratospheric winters. In this work the scheme has been improved by revising the treatment of families and the convergence properties of the scheme. The new scheme has been named IMPACT (IMPlicit Algorithm for Chemical Time-stepping). It remains easy to implement and produces simulations that compare well with integrations using more accurate higher order schemes. 相似文献
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M. R. Allen N. P. Gillett J. A. Kettleborough G. Hegerl R. Schnur P. A. Stott G. Boer C. Covey T. L. Delworth G. S. Jones J. F. B. Mitchell T. P. Barnett 《Surveys in Geophysics》2006,27(5):491-544
We assess the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface temperatures over the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change as simulated by a range of climate models. The hypothesis that observed changes are entirely due to internal climate variability is rejected at a high confidence level independent of the climate model used to simulate either the anthropogenic signal or the internal variability. Where the relevant simulations are available, we also consider the alternative hypothesis that observed changes are due entirely to natural external influences, including solar variability and explosive volcanic activity. We allow for the possibility that feedback processes, other than those simulated by the models considered, may be amplifying the observed response to these natural influences by an unknown amount. Even allowing for this possibility, the hypothesis of no anthropogenic influence can be rejected at the 5% level in almost all cases. The influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emerges as a substantial contributor to recent observed climate change, with the estimated trend attributable to greenhouse forcing similar in magnitude to the total observed warming over the 20th century. Much greater uncertainty remains in the response to other external influences on climate, particularly the response to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols and to solar and volcanic forcing. Our results remain dependent on model-simulated signal patterns and internal variability, and would benefit considerably from a wider range of simulations, particularly of the responses to natural external forcing. 相似文献
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δ18O of a stalagmite collected from Shihua Cave, 50 km southwest of Beijing is analyzed. The uppermost 2 cm was sampled at about
3-year intervals by a computer-controlled microsampling device. A total of 133 samples were analyzed, covering the last 480
years. A comparison of the δ18O record with the instrumentally recorded precipitation in Beijing and Tianjin back to 1840 AD shows that high precipitation
correlates with negative δ18O peaks. The long-term δ18O trend records temperature changes. Between 1620 and 1900 AD, the temperature was cooler than the average value for the 480-year
record, corresponding to the Little Ice Age. Temperatures warmer than the average prevailed during 1520–1620 and 1900—present.
Superimposed on the long-term trend are about 14 δ18O cycles of 30–40-year periodicity, with wet periods centered around 1985, 1955, 1910, 1880, 1840, 1800, 1760, 1730, 1690,
1660, 1630, 1600, 1560 and 1530 AD.
Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 9615875). 相似文献
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Mauro Dall’Amico Peter A. Stott Adam A. Scaife Lesley J. Gray Karen H. Rosenlof Alexey Yu. Karpechko 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(2-3):399-417
An improved stratospheric representation has been included in simulations with the Hadley Centre HadGEM1 coupled ocean atmosphere model with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the period 1979–2003. An improved stratospheric ozone dataset is employed that includes natural variations in ozone as well as the usual anthropogenic trends. In addition, in a second set of simulations the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal wind is also imposed using a relaxation towards ERA-40 zonal wind values. The resulting impact on tropospheric variability and trends is described. We show that the modelled cooling rate at the tropopause is enhanced by the improved ozone dataset and this improvement is even more marked when the QBO is also included. The same applies to warming trends in the upper tropical troposphere which are slightly reduced. Our stratospheric improvements produce a significant increase of internal variability but no change in the positive trend of annual mean global mean near-surface temperature. Warming rates are increased significantly over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean. The improved stratospheric representation, especially the QBO relaxation, causes a substantial reduction in near-surface temperature and precipitation response to the El Chichón eruption, especially in the tropical region. The winter increase in the phase of the northern annular mode observed in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions is partly captured, especially after the El Chichón eruption. The positive trend in the southern annular mode (SAM) is increased and becomes statistically significant which demonstrates that the observed increase in the SAM is largely subject to internal variability in the stratosphere. The possible inclusion in simulations for future assessments of full ozone chemistry and a gravity wave scheme to internally generate a QBO is discussed. 相似文献
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David Carter Daniel J. B. Smith Susan M. Percival Ivan K. Baldry Christopher A. Collins Philip A. James Maurizio Salaris Chris Simpson John P. Stott Bahram Mobasher 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,397(2):695-708
We present a comprehensive analysis of the ability of current stellar population models to reproduce the optical ( ugriz ) and near-infrared ( JHK ) colours of a small sample of well-studied nearby elliptical and S0 galaxies. We find broad agreement between the ages and metallicities derived using different population models, although different models show different systematic deviations from the measured broad-band fluxes. Although it is possible to constrain simple stellar population models to a well-defined area in age–metallicity space, there is a clear degeneracy between these parameters even with such a full range of precise colours. The precision to which age and metallicity can be determined independently, using only broad-band photometry with realistic errors, is Δ[Fe/H]≃ 0.18 and Δlog Age ≃ 0.25 . To constrain the populations and therefore the star formation history further, it will be necessary to combine broad-band optical–IR photometry with either spectral line indices, or else photometry at wavelengths outside this range. 相似文献
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Hydro‐meteorological drivers and sources of suspended sediment flux in the pro‐glacial zone of the retreating Castle Creek Glacier,Cariboo Mountains,British Columbia,Canada 
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下载免费PDF全文 Michael S. Leggat Philip N. Owens Tim A. Stott Barry J. Forrester Stephen J. Déry Brian Menounos 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(11):1542-1559
Glaciers are major agents of erosion that increase sediment load to the downstream fluvial system. The Castle Creek Glacier, British Columbia, Canada, has retreated ~1.0 km in the past 70 years. Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and streamflow (Q) were monitored independently at five sites within its pro‐glacial zone over a 60 day period from July to September 2011, representing part of the ablation season. Meteorological data were collected from two automatic weather stations proximal to the glacier. The time‐series were divided into hydrologic days and the shape and magnitude of the SSC response to hydro‐meteorological conditions (‘cold and wet’, ‘hot and dry’, ‘warm and damp’, and ‘storm’) were categorized using principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA). Suspended sediment load (SSL) was computed and summarized for the categories. The distribution of monitoring sites and results of the multivariate statistical analyses describe the temporal and spatial variability of suspended sediment flux and the relative importance of glacial and para‐glacial sediment sources in the pro‐glacial zone. During the 2011 study period, ~ 60% of the total SSL was derived from the glacial stream and sediment deposits proximal to the terminus of the glacier; during ‘storm’ events, that contribution dropped to ~40% as the contribution from diffuse and point sources of sediment throughout the pro‐glacial zone and within the meltwater channels increased. While ‘storm’ events accounted for just 3% of the study period, SSL was ~600% higher than the average over the monitoring period, and ~20% of the total SSL was generated in that time. Determining how hydro‐meteorological conditions and sediment sources control sediment fluxes will assist attempts to predict how pro‐glacial zones respond to future climate changes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献