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A GLUE‐based uncertainty assessment framework for tritium‐inferred transit time estimations under baseflow conditions 
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下载免费PDF全文 Francesc Gallart Maria Roig‐Planasdemunt Michael K. Stewart Pilar Llorens Uwe Morgenstern Willibald Stichler Laurent Pfister Jérôme Latron 《水文研究》2016,30(25):4741-4760
The last decade has seen major technical and scientific improvements in the study of water transfer time through catchments. Nevertheless, it has been argued that most of these developments used conservative tracers that may disregard the oldest component of water transfer, which often has transit times greater than 5 years. Indeed, although the analytical reproducibility of tracers limits the detection of the older flow components associated with the most dampened seasonal fluctuations, this is very rarely taken into account in modelling applications. Tritium is the only environmental tracer at hand to investigate transfer times in the 5‐ to 50‐year range in surface waters, as dissolved gases are not suitable due to the degassing process. Water dating with tritium has often been difficult because of the complex history of its atmospheric concentration, but its current stabilization together with recent analytical improvements open promising perspectives. In this context, the innovative contribution of this study lies in the development of a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation‐based approach for analysing the uncertainties associated with the modelling of transit time due to both parameter identification and tracer analytical precision issues. A coupled resampling procedure allows assessment of the statistical significance of the transfer time differences found in diverse waters. This approach was developed for tritium and the exponential‐piston model but can be implemented for virtually any tracer and model. Stream baseflow, spring and shallow aquifer waters from the Vallcebre research catchments, analysed for tritium in different years with different analytical precisions, were investigated by using this approach and taking into account other sources of uncertainty. The results showed three groups of waters of different mean transit times, with all the stream baseflow and spring waters older than the 5‐year threshold needing tritium. Low sensitivity of the results to the model structure was also demonstrated. Dual solutions were found for the waters sampled in 2013, but these results may be disambiguated when additional analyses will be made in a few years. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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We established the relationships between water chemistry changes in a pool fed by a permanent spring and seasonal variations in trace-element contents (Sr & Mg) in the shells of the ostracod species Herpetocypris intermedia, based on monthly collections of ostracod and water samples. The water chemistry of the investigated pool (Maïques, Valëncia, Spain) was dominated by calcium and bicarbonate, and showed marked seasonal variation in alkalinity, Ca2+ content, Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios. Although the variability in the water chemistry was relatively low (~10% relative standard deviation over the entire period), the trace-element contents in the ostracod shells tracked the seasonal change in the water chemistry of Maïques pool. Moreover, due to the rapid renewal of H. intermedia population, this species is able torecord in its shells the evolution of the water chemistry at a monthly time scale. Our results also showed that, in the Maïques pool system, ostracod Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios increased with the decrease in water salinity.To our knowledge, this is the first geochemical study of ostracods dwelling in spring environments. The results of this study may be applied to paleohydrological reconstruction using ostracods preserved in sediments deposited around springs (i.e. travertine and tufa deposits). 相似文献
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Antoni Quetglas Francesc Ordines María González Ignacio Franco 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2009,56(8):1379-1390
The life cycle of the deep-sea octopus Pteroctopus tetracirrhus was studied from monthly samples obtained throughout the year in different areas of the western Mediterranean (mainly around the Balearic Islands and along the coast of the Iberian Peninsula). A total of 373 individuals (205 females, 168 males) were analyzed; females ranged from 4.5 to 14.0 cm mantle length (ML) and males from 4.5 to 11.5 cm ML. There were few small-sized octopuses (<7 cm ML) in the samples, which might indicate that these individuals inhabit rocky grounds that are not accessible to trawlers or waters deeper than the maximum depth sampled (800 m). The species occurred more frequently around the Balearic Islands than along the Iberian Peninsula as they appeared in 20% and 7%, respectively, of the hauls in these areas. The octopus inhabits the lower continental shelf and upper slope in both areas, primarily between 200 and 500 m depth. Modal lengths were followed from autumn, when recruits were caught by trawlers, to summer, when reproduction took place. Females grew from 8 to 10 cm ML from winter to spring, but this modal size did not increase further in summer; males grew from 7 to 9 cm ML from winter to spring. The total disappearance of large individuals after summer suggests a life cycle lasting a single year. The evolution of the monthly mean sizes showed that the growth was best described by log-linear functions in both sexes. The length at first maturity was clearly higher in females (12 cm ML) than in males (8 cm ML). A total of 30 different prey items, belonging to four major taxonomic groups (crustaceans, osteichthyes, cephalopods and gastropods), were identified in the stomach contents. The diet of the octopus was based on crustaceans and teleosts, which accounted for 75% and 23% of the prey items, respectively. Cephalopods and gastropods were accessory prey as they only represented 1.6% and 0.7%, respectively, of the total. The octopus showed a marked preference for the benthic fish Symphurus nigrescens and the endobenthic crustacean Alpheus glaber. The bathymetric distribution of P. tetracirrhus coincides with those of these two main prey, which suggests that the distribution of the octopus might be strongly linked to its trophic resources. 相似文献
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M.M. Rufino M.B. Gaspar F. Maynou C.C. Monteiro 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008,80(4):517-528
From 2000 to 2006, a total of 75 bivalve species were identified, varying from 29 (spring 2001) to 54 species (spring 2005) per year. Seasonal tendencies in diversity varied according the year, thus the interpretation of long-term and regional scales is essential before drawing any conclusions in other studies. Richness and diversity consistently decreased with depth and increased with sediment grain size (from low in very coarse sand to high in coarse silt). Diversity decreased progressively from 3 to 16 m depth, thus the harsher shallower environments (due to waves and tidal air exposure) showed greater diversity than the most stable areas. Communities in finer sediments were more diverse than those in coarser sand. Evenness showed patterns opposite to diversity, overall.Diversity and evenness maps (produced with multivariate universal kriging), showed that most geographic areas with greater diversity were farer from river outflows and wastewater treatment plants. Two types of geographic pattern were observed: areas with persistently greater bivalve diversity through time and areas that changed locally from year to year. This spatial analysis can be used to establish priority conservation areas for management purposes, and to analyse the persistency of regional diversity patterns. The area with most habitat heterogeneity (Sotavento) corresponded to greatest diversity.There was a positive relationship between Spisula solida and Chamelea gallina landings and bivalve diversity 2 years and 1 year later, respectively. Possibly, local fisheries, by selectively withdrawing the commercial numerically dominant species from the ecosystem, increased diversity 1 to 2 years later, as the ecological niches of the dominants are quickly filled by several other species thereby creating a more even community. On regional scales, no significant impact was found on long-term bivalve diversity in local fisheries, 相似文献
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The first application of the SHETRAN basin‐scale, landslide erosion and sediment yield model is carried out for a major landsliding event in the upper 505 km2 of the Llobregat basin, in the eastern Spanish Pyrenees, in November 1982. The model simulates the spatial distribution of shallow landslides and their sediment yield. Acknowledging uncertainty in the model parameter evaluation, the aim of the application was not to reproduce the observed occurrence of landslides as accurately as possible with one simulation, but to bracket the observed pattern with several simulations representing uncertainty in the key input conditions. Bounds on the landslide simulations were thus determined as a function of uncertainty in the vegetation root cohesion (used in the model factor of safety calculations). The resulting upper bound considerably overestimates the observed pattern (17 000 landslides compared with an observation of around 700), but it reproduces several of the principal clusters in the observed pattern. The lower bound contains around 500 landslides. The sediment yield estimates (2670–14 630 t km?2) are comparable to measurements elsewhere in the Pyrenees for extreme events. The results demonstrate an ability to simulate the basin‐scale landslide response to a rainfall event and the resulting sediment yield. They also highlight the need for further research in setting the uncertainty bounds and in avoiding large overestimates of landslide occurrence arising in part from a current inability to model small‐scale controls for a basin of the given size. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Hydrology and solute concentrations of two intermittent Mediterranean streams draining two nested catchments were compared. The two catchments were mainly underlain by granitic rocks and different types of sericitic schists. Only the lowland catchment had an alluvial zone and a well‐developed riparian forest. The rainfall–runoff relationship and the correlation between daily flow concentrations showed that hydrological behaviour was similar at both sites during most of the year. However, reverse fluxes were detected during the wetting and drying up periods only in the stream with an alluvial zone. The intermittence in stream flow also had effects on absolute solute concentrations, temporal solute dynamics and streamwater stoichiometry. Streamwater chemistry was not affected by drainage area, except for cations produced mainly by bedrock dissolution (i.e. calcium and magnesium) that increased with increasing catchment size. Differences in the relationship among cations and anions were detected between the two streams, which could be attributed to biogeochemical processes occurring in the alluvial zone. The multivariate model used in this study showed that stoichiometry was more useful than absolute concentrations when analyzing the influence of different lithologies on streamwater chemistry. Such differences were amplified in autumn, likely due to a low hydrological connectivity between the two nested catchments. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Jane M. Reed Francesc Mesquita-Joanes Huw I. Griffiths 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2012,47(2):251-275
Diatoms (Bacillariophyceae; single-celled algae) and ostracods (Ostracoda; shelled microcrustacea) are known for their sensitivity
to salinity. In palaeolimnology, the potential has yet to be tested for quantifying past salinity, lake level, and by inference,
climate change, by application of multiple-indicator transfer functions. We used weighted averaging techniques to derive diatom
(n = 91; r
2
= 0.92) and ostracod (n = 53; r
2
= 0.83) conductivity transfer functions from modern diatom, ostracod and water chemistry data collected in lakes of central,
western and northern Turkey. Diatoms were better represented across the full gradient than ostracods, at intermediate levels
of conductivity in particular, but both transfer functions were statistically robust. Because transfer functions are not infallible,
we further tested the strength and simplicity of salinity response and the potential for identifying characteristic associations
of diatom and ostracod taxa in different parts of the salinity gradient, to improve palaeoclimate reconstruction. We identified
a subset of 51 samples that contained both diatoms and ostracods, collected at the same time from the same habitat. We used
Two-Way Indicator Species Analysis of a combined diatom-ostracod data set, transformed to achieve numerical equivalence, to
explore distributions in more detail. A clear ecological threshold was apparent at ~3 g l−1 salinity, rather than at 5 g l−1, the boundary used by some workers, equating to the oligosaline-mesosaline boundary. Other salinity boundaries were poorly
defined, indicating lack of a simple, well-defined salinity response. We did, however, define characteristic associations
of taxa, to facilitate the distinction to be drawn between a hydrologically open, fresh lake and an oligosaline lake, in palaeoenvironmental
reconstruction. Over the rest of the salinity gradient, we highlighted the potential for the multi-proxy approach to strengthen
ostracod-based reconstruction in particular, to overcome the problem of broad apparent tolerance ranges in common halophilic
taxa such as Limnocythere inopinata, which often dominate in low-diversity fossil assemblages. The combination of multi-proxy quantitative reconstruction, complemented
by qualitative understanding of ecological responses generated by the analysis, remains a powerful tool in Quaternary palaeoclimate
research. 相似文献
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Spectacularly developed lower Eocene chert in the Corones platform carbonates of the Spanish Pyrenees is concentrated within a restricted, brackish-water, laminated ostracod-rich facies, which also contains abundant sponge spicules. The chert occurs as nodular, bedded and mottled varieties, and four petrographic types of quartz are developed: microquartz; length-fast (LF) chalcedony; megaquartz; and microspheres. δ18 O values of chert range from 29·6‰ to 30·9‰ (SMOW), which correspond to a broad isotope rank common for biogenic and diagenetic replacement cherts. Calcian dolomite crystals with high Fe and Na are disseminated within the microquartz and LF-chalcedony, but are absent from the megaquartz and host carbonate. The chert is closely associated with desiccation cracks and with interstratal dewatering structures. Load casts are silicified, and laminae rich in sponge spicules are convoluted. Early cracks related to dewatering are filled by microquartz and quartz cements. Ostracod shells within chert are locally fractured; those in the host carbonate are commonly flattened. Late fractures are filled by LF-chalcedony and megaquartz. There is much evidence for the dissolution of sponge spicules and their calcitization in the carbonate host rock. Silica for the Corones cherts was derived from sponges during early diagenesis and shallow burial. Early mechanical compaction and sediment dewatering played a major role in sponge spicule dissolution, migration of silica-rich fluids and the consequent precipitation of chert. Quartz cements continued to be precipitated into the burial environment. 相似文献