Countries’ contributions to climate change: effect of accounting for all greenhouse gases, recent trends, basic needs and technological progress     

Michel G. J. den Elzen  Jos G. J. Olivier  Niklas Höhne  Greet Janssens-Maenhout 《Climatic change》2013,121(2):397-412

In the context of recent discussions at the UN climate negotiations we compared several ways of calculating historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and assessed the effect of these different approaches on countries’ relative contributions to cumulative global emissions. Elements not covered before are: (i) including recent historical emissions (2000–2010), (ii) discounting historical emissions to account for technological progress; (iii) deducting emissions for ‘basic needs’; (iv) including projected emissions up to 2020, based on countries’ unconditional reduction proposals for 2020. Our analysis shows that countries’ contributions vary significantly based on the choices made in the calculation: e.g. the relative contribution of developed countries as a group can be as high as 80 % when excluding recent emissions, non-CO₂ GHGs, and land-use change and forestry CO₂; or about 48 % when including all these emissions and discounting historical emissions for technological progress. Excluding non-CO₂ GHGs and land-use change and forestry CO₂ significantly changes relative historical contributions for many countries, altering countries’ relative contributions by multiplicative factors ranging from 0.15 to 1.5 compared to reference values (i.e. reference contribution calculations cover the period 1850-2010 and all GHG emissions). Excluding 2000–2010 emissions decreases the contributions of most emerging economies (factor of up to 0.8). Discounting historical emissions for technological progress reduces the relative contributions of some developed countries (factor of 0.8) and increases those of some developing countries (factor of 1.2–1.5). Deducting emissions for ‘basic needs’ results in smaller contributions for countries with low per capita emissions (factor of 0.3–0.5). Finally, including projected emissions up to 2020 further increases the relative contributions of emerging economies by a factor of 1.2, or 1.5 when discounting pre-2020 emissions for technological progress.  相似文献   

Patterns of rock fragment cover generated by tillage erosion   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Jean Poesen  Bas van Wesemael  Gerard Govers  Jos Martinez-Fernandez  Philippe Desmet  Karel Vandaele  Timothy Quine  Greet Degraer 《Geomorphology》1997,18(3-4)

Intensively cultivated areas in the upper part of the Guadalentin catchment (southeast Spain) show a systematic spatial pattern of surface rock fragment cover (R_c). The objective of this paper is to quantify and to explain this spatial rock fragment cover pattern. Therefore, a map of an intensively cultivated area of 5 km² was digitised, and for each pixel total topographic curvature was calculated. Next, rock fragment cover was determined photographically at 35 sites with a range of total slope curvatures. A linear relation between total curvature and rock fragment cover was found, except for narrow concavities. It was hypothesised that this pattern can be explained by a significant net downslope movement of rock fragments and fine earth by tillage. The displacement distances of rock fragments by tillage with a duckfoot chisel were measured by monitoring the displacement of tracers (painted rock fragments and aluminium cubes) on 5 sites having different slopes. The rare of tillage erosion for one tillage pass with a duckfoot chisel, expressed by the diffusion constant (k), equals 282 kg/m for up and downslope tillage and only 139 kg/m for contour tillage. Nomograms indicate that mean denudation rates in almond groves due to tillage erosion (3 to 5 tillage passes per year) can easily amount to 1.5–2.6 mm/year for contour tillage and up to 3.6–5.9 mm/year for up- and downslope tillage for a field, 50 m long and having a slope of 20%. These figures are at least one order of magnitude larger than reported denudation rates caused by water erosion in similar environments. Hence tillage erosion contributes significantly to land degradation. The downslope soil flux induced by tillage not only causes considerable denudation on topographic convexities (hill tops and spurs) and upper field boundaries but also an important sediment accumulation in topographic concavities (hollows and valley bottoms) and at lower field boundaries. Kinetic sieving (i.e. the upward migration of rock fragments) by the tines of the duckfoot chisel also concentrates the largest rock fragments in the topsoil in such a way that a rock fragment mulch develops in narrow valleys and at the foot of the slopes. These results clearly indicate that tillage erosion is the main process responsible for the observed rock fragment cover pattern in the study area. Since the study area is representative for many parts of southern Spain where almond groves have expanded since 1970, the results have a wider application. They show to what extent intensive tillage of steep slopes has contributed to the increase in soil degradation, to changes in hillslope morphology (i.e. strong denudation of convexities, development of lynchets and rapid infilling of narrow valley bottoms) and to the development of rock fragment cover patterns which control the spatial variability of the hydrological and water erosion response within such landscapes.  相似文献   

Hydroxyl (6/2) airglow emission intensity ratios for rotational temperature determination     

W. J. R. French  G. B. Burns  K. Finlayson  P. A. Greet  R. P. Lowe  P. F. B. Williams 《Annales Geophysicae》2000,18(10):1293-1303

OH(6/2) Q1/P1 and R₁/P₁ airglow emission intensity ratios, for rotational states up to j = 4.5, are measured to be lower than implied by transition probabilities published by various authors including Mies, Langhoff et al. and Turnbull and Lowe. Experimentally determined relative values of j transitions yield OH(6/2) rotational temperatures 2 K lower than Langhoff et al., 7 K lower than Mies and 13 K lower than Turnbull and Lowe.  相似文献   

OH(6–2) spectra and rotational temperature measurements at Davis, Antarctica     

P. A. Greet  W. J. R. French  G. B. Burns  P. F. B. Williams  R. P. Lowe  K. Finlayson 《Annales Geophysicae》1997,16(1):77-89

The OH(6 – 2) band was monitored during 1990 at Davis, Antarctica (68.6°S, 78.0°E) using a Czerny-Turner scanning spectrometer. Spectra obtained with a 0.15-nm bandwidth and wavelength steps of 0.005 nm have been recorded in an attempt to isolate auroral features. This has enabled detailed study of weak features in the region 837.5–855.5nm. These weak features can contribute to the apparent intensity of P-branch lines and to the background. Their presence is allowed for in our calculation of rotational temperature, but the P₁ (3) line is excluded because of significant contamination. An average temperature of 221 ± 2K is obtained from a selected data set of 104 spectra. The mid-winter average temperature, for the months of May, June and July, is 224 ± 2K, which is consistent with the 1986 CIRA model values for mid-winter at this height and latitude, but this result is dependent on the choice of transition probabilities. Preliminary assessments of seasonal and diurnal variations in rotational temperature and intensity are presented.  相似文献   

Are strandline meiofaunal assemblages affected by a once-only mechanical beach cleaning? Experimental findings     

Gheskiere T  Magda V  Greet P  Steven D 《Marine environmental research》2006,61(3):245-264

The increasing usage of sandy beaches as recreational resources has forced regional authorities of many tourist countries to remove all litter of fabricated origin and natural wrack from the beach. Consequently, a variety of heavy equipment has been developed during the last decades and is now used almost daily at many beaches. A field experiment, following a 'before-after-control-impact' (BACI) design, was conducted at the strandline of De Panne (Belgium) to investigate the impacts of mechanical beach cleaning on the strandline-associated meiofaunal assemblages, focussing on the free-living nematodes. Natural strandline assemblages were exposed to a one-off 5 cm deep mechanical beach cleaning and observed for 24 h. Differences between cleaned plots and those from control plots in terms of decreased percentage of organic matter, decreased total abundance and changed community structure were noticed from immediately after the experimental cleaning onwards and recovered to initial values after the following high water. Any impacts due to cleaning on species richness, Pielou's evenness and taxonomic diversity were shown to be minor in relation to the daily changes. Recolonization in the cleaned sediments is assumed to occur from the underlying sediments initiated by the elevated water table during the rising tide.  相似文献   

Do emissions and income have a common trend? A country-specific,time-series,global analysis, 1970–2008     

Paolo Paruolo  Ben Murphy  Greet Janssens-Maenhout 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2015,29(1):93-107

This paper analyzes the relation between income and emissions in the period 1970–2008, for all world countries. We consider time-series of CO₂, SO₂ and GWP100, and use Vector Autoregressive models that allow for nonstationarity and cointegration. At 5 % significance level, income and emissions are found to be driven by unrelated random walks with drift (respectively by a common random walk with drift) in about 70 % (respectively 25 %) of cases; in the remaining cases the variables are trend-stationary. Tests of Granger-causality show evidence of both directions of causality. For the case of unrelated stochastic trends, we almost never find income driving emissions, as predicted by a consumption-function interpretation. These causality results and the absence of a common trend challenge the main implications of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, namely that the dominant direction of causality should be from income to emissions, and that for increasing levels of income, emissions should tend to decrease.  相似文献   

Argon auroral emissions     

G. B. Burns  P. F. B. Williams  R. P. Lowe  W. J. R. French  P. A. Greet  D. P. Monselesan 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2002,64(18)

Argon is the third most abundant constituent of the atmosphere, but has not been previously detected by any ground-based optical remote sensing method. We report observation of argon emissions at λ840.82 and λ842.46 nm during intense aurora. These are most likely excited by direct electron impact. The maximum argon intensity observed is 270 R. Argon is the fifth elemental emission conclusively observed in geo-aurora, joining N, O, H and He.  相似文献