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Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data. 相似文献
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We investigate daily and sub-daily non-tidal oceanic and atmospheric loading (NTOAL) in the Australian region and put an upper bound on potential site motion examining the effects of tropical cyclone Yasi that crossed the Australian coast in January/February 2011. The dynamic nature of the ocean is important, particularly for northern Australia where the long-term scatter due to daily and sub-daily oceanic changes increases by 20–55 % compared to that estimated using the inverted barometer (IB) assumption. Correcting the daily Global Positioning System (GPS) time series for NTOAL employing either a dynamic ocean model or the IB assumption leads to a reduction of up to 52 % in the weighted scatter of daily coordinate estimates. Differences between the approaches are obscured by seasonal variations in the GPS precision along the northern coast. Two compensating signals during the cyclone require modelling at high spatial and temporal resolution: uplift induced by the atmospheric depression, and subsidence induced by storm surge. The latter dominates ( \(>\) 135 %) the combined net effect that reaches a maximum of 14 mm, and 10 mm near the closest GPS site TOW2. Here, 96 % of the displacement is reached within 15 h due to the rapid transit of cyclones and the quasi-linear nature of the coastline. Consequently, estimating sub-daily NTOAL is necessary to properly account for such a signal that can be 3.5 times larger than its daily-averaged value. We were unable to detect the deformation signal in 2-hourly GPS processing and show that seasonal noise in the Austral summer dominates and precludes GPS detection of the cyclone-related subsidence. 相似文献
4.
Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Ivan D. Haigh Leigh R. MacPherson Matthew S. Mason E. M. S. Wijeratne Charitha B. Pattiaratchi Ryan P. Crompton Steve George 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):139-157
The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones. 相似文献
5.
Unreclaimed strip mine dumps near Henryetta, Oklahoma were employed as a natural laboratory for the study of slope evolution. These dumps were created by similar technologies and from similar materials but at different times. Modern, 30-year-old and 60-year-old slopes were compared through morphometric analysis and by the direct measurement of current rates of denudation. Slope evolution may be generalized as slope decline. This was effected through reduction of the slope crest, burial of the slope foot, and extension of the upper convexity and lower concavity at the expense of the rectilinear main slope of the original mine dump. There was a progressive reduction in rates of surface erosion, and the balance between weathering and suffosion became skewed towards the latter on the oldest dumps. 相似文献
6.
The structure of the Tasmanian dolerite at Great Lake 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
A gravity survey over Great Lake on the central plateau of Tasmania shows that the structure of the dolerite that intrudes gently dipping Permian and Triassic sediments has appreciable thickening under the northern end of Great Lake and by means of alternate dykes and sills the dolerite moves up and out from the central feeder. This structure facilitates the formation of grano‐phyre over the dykes. The Great Lake intrusion is not unique but a typical form for the Tasmanian dolerite. 相似文献
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This paper provides estimates of rates of change in mean sea level around the English Channel, based on an extensive new hourly sea level data set for the south coast of the UK, derived from data archaeology. Mean sea level trends are found to vary by between 0.8 and 2.3 mm/yr around the Channel. The rates of mean sea level change are calculated by removing the coherent part of the sea level variability from the time series of annual mean sea level before fitting linear trends. The improvement in accuracy gained by using this approach is assessed by comparing trends with those calculated using the more traditional method, in which linear trends are fitted directly to the original records. Removal of the coherent part of the sea level variability allows more precise trends to be calculated from records spanning 30 years. With the traditional approach 50 years is required to obtain the same level of accuracy. Rates of vertical land movement are approximated by subtracting the mean sea level trends from the most recent regional estimate of change in sea level due to oceanographic processes only. These estimated rates are compared to measurements from geological data and advanced geodetic techniques. There is good agreement around most of the UK. However, the rates estimated from the sea level records imply that the geological data suggest too much submergence along the western and central parts of the UK south coast. Lastly, the paper evaluates whether the high rates of mean sea level rise of the last decade are unusual compared to trends observed at other periods in the historical record and finds that they are not. 相似文献
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