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ABSTRACT The shore of a large and shallow reservoir or lake may incur damages caused by high or low static water level, as well as from dynamic water level rises induced by wind; thus, the random variables representing, respectively, static water level and wind-induced rise must be added. The case study of Lake Balaton, Hungary, illustrates a proposed methodology to estimate, on the one hand, the distribution function of monthly static water level and on the other hand, that of monthly maximum rise caused by wind (seiche plus waves). We consider one section of lake shore which is homogeneous from the viewpoints of types of structure, dominant winds and corresponding values of fetch, so that a well-defined damage function can be used later for that section. A convolution of the two distribution functions is performed to yield the distribution function of monthly maximum water level. On the basis of existing data, normal distributions are suggested for either static or dynamic water levels. Extensions and transferability of the methodology are discussed. 相似文献
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