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Amadou Angelina Abdouramane Gado Djibo Ibrah Seidou Sanda Ketvara Sittichok 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1709-1723
AbstractA significant decrease in mean river flow as well as shifts in flood regimes have been reported at several locations along the River Niger. These changes are the combined effect of persistent droughts, damming and increased consumption of water. Moreover, it is believed that climate change will impact on the hydrological regime of the river in the next decades and exacerbate existing problems. While decision makers and stakeholders are aware of these issues, it is hard for them to figure out what actions should be taken without a quantitative estimate of future changes. In this paper, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of the Niger River watershed at Koulikoro was successfully calibrated, then forced with the climate time series of variable length generated by nine regional climate models (RCMs) from the AMMA-ENSEMBLES experiment. The RCMs were run under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. A combination of quantile-quantile transformation and nearest-neighbour search was used to correct biases in the distributions of RCM outputs. Streamflow time series were generated for the 2026–2050 period (all nine RCMs), and for the 2051–2075 and 2076–2100 periods (three out of nine RCMs) based on the availability of RCM simulations. It was found that the quantile-quantile transformation improved the simulation of both precipitation extremes and ratio of monthly dry days/wet days. All RCMs predicted an increase in temperature and solar radiation, and a decrease in average annual relative humidity in all three future periods relative to the 1981–1989 period, but there was no consensus among them about the direction of change of annual average wind speed, precipitation and streamflow. When all model projections were averaged, mean annual precipitation was projected to decrease, while the total precipitation in the flood season (August, September, October) increased, driving the mean annual flow up by 6.9% (2026–2050), 0.9% (2051–2075) and 5.6% (2076–2100). A t-test showed that changes in multi-model annual mean flow and annual maximum monthly flow between all four periods were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. 相似文献
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ABSTRACTThere is great potential in Data Assimilation (DA) for the purposes of uncertainty identification, reduction and real-time correction of hydrological models. This paper reviews the latest developments in Kalman filters (KFs), particularly the Extended KF (EKF) and the Ensemble KF (EnKF) in hydrological DA. The hydrological DA targets, methodologies and their applicability are examined. The recent applications of the EKF and EnKF in hydrological DA are summarized and assessed critically. Furthermore, this review highlights the existing challenges in the implementation of the EKF and EnKF, especially error determination and joint parameter estimation. A detailed review of these issues would benefit not only the Kalman-type DA but also provide an important reference to other hydrological DA types.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor F. Pappenberger 相似文献
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John Davenport Daria Ezgeta-Balić Melita Peharda Sanda Skejić Živana Ninčević-Gladan Slavica Matijević 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011
The endangered fan shell Pinna nobilis is a large bivalve mollusc (<120 cm shell length) endemic to the Mediterranean that lives one-third buried in soft substrata, generally in shallow coastal waters. We hypothesised that P. nobilis of different sizes would ingest different food sources, because small fan shells will inhale material from closer to the substratum than do large fan shells. We studied stomach contents and faeces of 18 fan shells, 6 small (mean 23.0 cm length), 6 medium-sized (mean 41.5 cm length) and 6 large (mean 62.7 cm length) living in a small area of a low-energy coastal detritic bottom characterised by mud, sand and macroalgae at Mali Ston Bay, Croatia. We found that all P. nobilis ingested copious quantities of undetermined detritus (probably at least 95% of ingested material), phytoplankton, micro and mesozooplankton and pollen grains. Large P. nobilis stomach contents showed a preponderance of water column calanoid copepods, while small fan shells had higher numbers of bivalve larvae. All fan shells took in high numbers of harpacticoid copepods that are benthonic, feeding on microbial communities of detritus and benthic vegetation. There was also a significant selection of phytoplankton species, some apparently occurring between inhalation and ingestion. The stomach contents of small P. nobilis had a higher organic matter content than either medium-sized or large fan shells; this indicated that small fan shells ingested detritus of higher organic content than did larger P. nobilis. As the faeces of all P. nobilis had similar organic matter content, this also indicates higher assimilation efficiencies in small fan shells. The demonstration of differential dietary selectivity by different sized animals has implications for future trophic studies of this endangered species. This study also provides the first demonstration of predation on zooplankton by P. nobilis. 相似文献
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Mamadou Adama Sarr Philippe Gachon Ousmane Seidou Christopher Robin Bryant Jacques André Ndione Jacques Comby 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(9):1538-1549
AbstractDaily precipitation data from 31 Senegalese stations spanning the period from 1950 to 2007 were used to examine the inter-annual variations of seven rainfall indices: the annual mean precipitation (MEAN); the annual standard deviation of daily precipitation (STD); the frequency of wet days (Prcp1); the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD); the maximum 3-day rainfall total (R3D); the wet day precipitation intensity (SDII); and the 90th percentile of rain-day precipitation (Prec90p). The indices were spatially averaged over three agro-climatic regions in Senegal. Trends in the time series of the averaged indices were assessed using both visual examination and a modified version of the Mann-Kendall (MM-K) test. Initially negative significant trends in all seven indices suggest gradually drier conditions over the three agro-climatic regions between 1950 and 1980. In contrast, no significant trends, or even positive significant trends, were observed from the mid-1980s to 2007. The MM-K test was applied to all available data (1950–2007) and the period from 1971 to 2000. While several indices were found to have significant trends towards drier conditions for the 1950–2007 period, only PRCP1 showed a positive significant trend for the 1971–2000 period. The MM-K test did not detect a significant trend for the other indices. It was found that the rainfall deficit and therefore drought is no longer intensifying, and that the region may even become wetter. However, the period covered by the observations is still too short to resolve the question of whether there is now a trend towards wetter conditions.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed 相似文献
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Yuanming Pan Mao Mao Zucheng Li Sanda M. Botis Rudolf I. Mashkovtsev Anton Shatskiy 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2012,39(8):627-637
Single-crystal electron paramagnetic resonance spectra of electron-irradiated stishovite, measured at temperatures from 3.5 to 294?K, reveal three S?=?1/2 radiation-induced defects: an aluminum-associated oxygen hole center and two nd 1 centers (Ti3+ and W5+). The aluminum-associated oxygen hole center, characterized by an orthorhombic site symmetry, coaxial matrices of the electronic Zeeman g, nuclear hyperfine A(27Al) and nuclear quadrupole P(27Al), and the orientation of the g-minimum axis along an O–O direction and those of the unique A(27Al) and P(27Al) axes perpendicular to the O–O direction, is an Al–O2 3? center, with the unpaired electron equally distributed on two equatorial oxygen atoms of a substitutional Al3+ ion at the octahedral Si site. Fully optimized Al-doped structure, theoretical 27Al nuclear hyperfine and quadrupole coupling constants and directions, and 3D spin densities from periodic hybrid density functional theory calculations provide further support for this structural model. Spin Hamiltonian parameters of the Ti3+ and W5+ centers, which are confirmed by their diagnostic 47Ti, 49Ti and 183W hyperfine structures, arise from electron trapping on substitutional Ti4+ and W6+ ions at the octahedral Si site. 相似文献
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Flood quantiles are routinely used in hydrologic engineering to design hydraulic structures, optimize erosion control structure
and map the extent of floodplains. As an increasing number of papers are pointing out cycles and trends in hydrologic time
series, the use of stationary flood distributions leads to the overestimation or underestimation of the hydrologic risk at
a given time. Several authors tried to address this problem by using probability distributions with time-varying parameters.
The parameters of these distributions were assumed to follow a linear or quadratic trend in time, which may be valid for the
short term but may lead to unrealistic long-term projections. On the other hand, deterministic rainfall-runoff models are
able to successfully reproduce trends and cycles in stream flow data but can perform poorly in reproducing daily flows and
flood peaks. Rainfall-runoff models typically have a better performance when simulation results are aggregated at a larger
time scale (e.g. at a monthly time scale vs. at a daily time scale). The strengths of these two approaches are combined in
this paper where the annual maximum of the time-averaged outputs of a hydrologic model are used to modulate the parameters
of a non-stationary GEV model of the daily maximum flow. The method was applied to the Kemptville Creek located in Ontario,
Canada, using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model as rainfall-runoff model. The parameters of the non-stationary
GEV model are then estimated using Monte Carlo Markov Chain, and the optimal span of the time windows over which the SWAT
outputs were averaged was selected using Bayes factors. Results show that using the non-stationary GEV distribution with a
location parameter linked to the maximum 9-day average flow provides a much better estimation of flood quantiles than applying
a stationary frequency analysis to the simulated peak flows. 相似文献
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Previous electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopic study of gamma-ray-irradiated stishovite at 77 K detected an
Al hole center, which was proposed to be an [O2
3−–Al3+] defect. First-principles quantum-mechanical calculations show that the unpaired spin is 85% localized on one of the six
oxygen atoms at an AlO6 octahedron, while the calculated 27Al hyperfine constants are similar to those determined by EPR experiments. Theoretical results allow us to propose the Al
center to represent an [AlO6]0 defect, and hole hoping among equivalent oxygen atoms is responsible for its detection only at cryogenic temperatures. Theoretical
calculations also show that the diamagnetic precursors [AlO6/H+]0, [AlO6/Li+]0, and [AlO6/Na+]0 are stable in stishovite. The calculated OH bond distance and orientation are in excellent agreement with those inferred
from FTIR spectra and previous theoretical calculations. The calculated [AlO6/Li+]0 and [AlO6/Na+]0 defects suggest that the monovalent cations such as Li+ and Na+ are potentially important in accommodating Al in stishovite in the lower mantle. 相似文献